NFL WEEK 15.... LET"S GET READY TO FREEZE OUR BUTTS OFF!
NFL Week 15 is going to be the coldest weekend of football since 2000! The weather is going to be a big factor with low Over/Unders and prop yardage totals everywhere. Let's go value hunting.
I went through all of the NFL games on the Barstool Sportsbook. Here are my quick thoughts....
Atlanta at Baltimore (-6.5, 35)
Over 58.5 JK Dobbins Rushing
This game is going to be ugly as hell in freezing cold weather. Like everyone else, I do not expect much out of Falcons Rookie QB Desmond Ridder or Baltimore backup QB Tyler Huntley. I also have ZERO faith in the Falcons on the road. Ravens RB JK Dobbins is hot the last two weeks and he will be fed heavily.
Buffalo (-8, 40) at Chicago
Chicago +8
The coldest game of the week here hence the low total. Chicago covered at home against Philly last week and I believe they do it again. The Bears are catching Buffalo in a good spot off a hard fought 32-29 win over Miami last Saturday night. Justin Fields does enough in the cold to keep the Bears in it... but they ain't winning.
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Cincy (-3, 41.5) at New England
Cincy (-3)
Over 29.5 Stevenson Receiving
Yet another cold one. This line opened at Cincy by 3.5 and has been bet down by sharps to 3. The Patriots are in a bounce back spot after getting their hearts ripped out on one of the craziest plays in NFL history last week in Vegas. The Bengals do look like a square side here but until the Pats actually beat anyone good I am going against them. They are a classic example of a team that beats bad ones and loses to good ones. The Bengals are smokin' hot behind Joe Burrow and are trying to make a push for the bye in the AFC. Mac Jones checks down to Rhamondre Stevenson all the time in the passing game hence the prop bet. Also keep an eye on Samaje Perine props as he is getting lots of action behind Joe Mixion in the Bengals backfield.
Detroit (-2.5, 43.5) at Carolina
Under 43.5
Under 240.5 Goff Passing
This is getting repetitive but another freezing cold affair here. Detroit by 2.5 looks super ratty to me. I always hate the road favorite by 2.5 line. It is the all time sucker one as Vegas is baiting bettors to take the better team laying under a FG. Instead I am taking the Under and Under 240.5 Goff Passing in the cold. I could see Detroit escaping 20-17 again like they did in New York last Sunday.
Houston at Tennessee (-3, 35)
Ryan Tannehill is out for the year with an ankle injury so Malik Willis it is for the Titans. And we all know what that means. KING HENRY time. AND HE ALWAYS CRUSHES THE TEXANS. I have not seen his rushing prop yet but I am taking the over no matter what even at 100+. Malik Willis will struggle to throw for 100 yards but Henry feasts against the crappy Texans Run D.
New Orleans at Cleveland (-3, 32)
Over 36.5 Taysom Hill Rushing
The lowest NFL total of 2022 BY FAR. I dove into that earlier this week here.
With 12 degree weather, 25-35 MPH winds and snow, it is TAYSOM HILL time for the Saints. There's no other way. I am firing his Over 36.5 Rushing yards. And that is the only over to fire in this one. I do not bet against the Saints ever but I would not blame anyone for taking Cleveland here. I am having a hard time picturing a Saints road win in this crap.
NY Giants at Minnesota (-4, 48)
NYG +4
Over Jefferson 92.5 Rec
Finally a game with no weather impact! Both teams are riding high off dramatic wins last weekend. The Vikings had the biggest comeback in NFL history (33-0 Half) to beat Indy and the Giants held on in Washington to put themselves in prime playoff position. I am taking the Giants +4 here as both teams have a propensity to play close games to the wire. And the beauty is the simplicity on Justin Jefferson Over 92.5 Yards Rec. If he is playing indoors, I am taking the Over until it starts to burn me.
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Seattle at Kansas City (-10, 49)
Over Jerick McKinnon Rec 27.5
Geno Smith is going to miss Star WR Tyler Lockett a good bit. This is a huge line but Seattle has been fading down the stretch after a hot start. I LOVE how KC is using RB Jerick McKinnon in the passing game and will be firing his Rec Over. He is a dynamic playmaker and the Chiefs used him a ton in playoffs last year. It seems like they have been saving him for this time of year.
Washington at SF (-6.5, 37.5)
SF -6.5
Over 41.5 Kittle Rec
Washington is in a tough spot here after getting gutted by awful call Sunday night then traveling cross country on short week against red hot 49ers. I like SF to win by a solid 10-14 as Commanders Offense struggles against the #1 D. And a stud TE is a young QB's best friend. Purdy has been going to Kittle a good bit the last two weeks and I will continue to ride that trend.
Phi at Dal (-4.5, 46.5)
Dal -4.5
Over 235.5 Minshew Pass
Gardner Minshew is starting for Philly with Jalen Hurts nursing a shoulder sprain. This game means a crap load more to Dallas. They are in prime bounce back spot after choking that game away in Jacksonville last Sunday. The Eagles have a lock on the #1 seed and do not need this game to win the division anymore. Dallas shows up big to regain confidence but Minshew does air it out some too.
Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (-2.5, 37.5)
Pitt -2.5
Under 214.5 Carr Pass
Going to be an emotional night in Pittsburgh celebrating the 50 year anniversary of the Immaculate Deflection and Franco Harris death this week. It also will be freezing which is bad news for Derek Carr. I will be firing his passing under and the Steelers to get it done ugly. I do not trust the Raiders on the road.... PERIOD.
Green Bay at Miami (-3.5, 50)
Miami -3.5
There's no team in the NFL with more dramatic home/road splits than the Miami Dolphins. They are coming off a 3 game road losing streak and are going to take it out on Green Bay. This line is way too short. Aaron Rodgers historically struggles some in Florida too. Miami by double digits.
Denver (-3, 36.5) at LA Rams
LA Rams +3
I DO NOT TRUST RUSSELL WILSON laying points on the road.... END OF STORY!
Tampa Bay (-7.5, 40.5) at Arizona
Arizona +7.5
Rashad White Over Rec?
Trace McSorley is starting at QB for the Cardinals. I definitely do not like Arizona but there's just no chance in hell I can lay over a TD on the road with this struggling Bucs squad. Bucs win ugly. Also looking out for Rashad White Rec props as I like how the Bucs use him in the passing game.
LA Chargers (-4.5, 45.5) at Indy
Indy +4.5
Over Zach Moss Rushing
Nick Foles is starting for Indy after they blew the biggest lead in NFL history last Saturday. With Jonathan Taylor out, I like Zach Moss to get fed early and often by the Colts. The Chargers Run D is not great and the Colts need to control the clock to keep Herbert and Co. on the sidelines. Austin Ekeler should have a large day for the Chargers as well. I actually lean Indy here as the Chargers love playing close games no matter who they play.
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And screw this shirt….