Huge week last week going 5-1. In typical Murphy's Law form, I was in bed with what I thought was Covid and didn't post a blog. Just a tweet.
Promise this won't happen again.
Hopefully, you were tailing. That brings us to 36-23-2 on the year.
Let's keep it hot, and get to this week's plays for Week 13.
Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
Tennessee Titans (7-4, 8-3 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1, 6-5 ATS) -5 (44)
This line's moved to 4.5 but I bet it at 5 (fuckkkk) so that's what I'm riding with.
The Eagles are 5-1 ATS at home and are coming off two straight wins, one in which they ran circles around Green Bay. Tennessee’s defense is better (3rd in yards per play given up, and first overall).
Tennessee is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of more than three points, and they've lost by more than five points just once this year. So yes this might seem like a good spot to take the points or bet the ML, but even with their starting safety out today, I think Philly’s defense buckles down against a still injured Tannehill. And Hurts does enough through the air to get the job done.
The play = Eagles -5
Washington Commanders (7-5, 7-4 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (7-4, 8-3 ATS) +3 (40.5)
The Giants are coming off a long week after playing on Thanksgiving, the Commanders still haven’t even had a bye yet (next week).
The Giants are fifth in the league in red-zone defense and tenth in opponent passer rating. Taylor Heinicke’s QBR is 46.9. I see him struggling big time today. Being home underdogs in this one is a big surprise for the Giants. I’ll take the value.
The play = Giants +3
Cleveland Browns (4-7, 5-6 ATS) at Houston Texans (1-9, 4-6 ATS) +7 (46.5)
This line is up to 8.5 in some places, but again, I got it earlier in the week at 7 in my Super Contest so that's what I'm playing with. I'm just honest like that what can I say? That said, you got it at 8 or above and that is monster value.
I think Deshaun Watson is going to be a disaster today between the rust and the nerves. He’ll be overexcited and is probably good for a couple turnovers. I think Houston will keep it close.
The play = Texans +7
Miami Dolphins (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4, 6-5 ATS) -4 (45.5)
This game figures to boil down to the matchup between the Dolphins' high scoring offense and the 49ers' top-ranked defense, and San Francisco has a bit of an edge coming in because of a home-field advantage but more importantly because of the Armstead injury for Miami because he's so important to Tua’s pass protection.
Tua is 9-4-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. The Dolphins don’t lose when he’s healthy
Mike McDaniel is running his old boss Kyle Shanahan’s offense better than his old boss is. The Dolphins outrank the 49ers in scoring (25.6 points per game to 22.6), points per drive (2.31 to 2.12), yards per play (6.3 to 5.9), yards per pass (8.1), red zone efficiency (64.1% to 55.6%) and EPA per play (.11 to .06).
I think the student beats the master today in what will turn out to be an awesome game.
The play = Dolphins +4
Kansas City Chiefs (9-2, 5-6 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4, 8-3 ATS) +2 (53)
The Chiefs are currently on a 5-game win streak, though they’re just 3-7-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, but this line is too low. Whenever KC has spotted less than a FG this year, they’ve rolled (they were 2 point favorites against Tampa Bay and won 41-31. Three weeks later, as one-point favorites against San Francisco, they won 44-23.)
The Chiefs couldn’t beat the Bengals in the AFC Championship last year because they couldn’t pressure Burrow whatsoever. They have a much better pass rush this year — they’re currently 5th in the NFL in sacks with 35.
Even with Chase (and probably Mixon) back today for the Bengals, I think KC will get to Burrow enough, and the offense will do what it always does and put up points. I like the Chiefs in a close one.
The play = Chiefs -2
Good luck to everybody! Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
LET THE BOY WATCH