I wanted to do a quick check-in before the biggest night of the college basketball season so far. We're a week in, have had a couple marquee games but it's been a quiet start in the sense of people going nuts for games. Howevah, this season is already off the rails. Nothing is making sense and for a variety of seasons. First being the teams that people thought would be good, actually might just stink.
Let me introduce you to TCU:
I know they didn't have Mike Miles and Damion Baugh last night. But you think that's a reason for them to lose to Northwestern State - the 343rd team on KenPom. Or the fact they barely escaped (should have lost) to No. 355 Arkansas Pine Bluff. They can't shoot for shit. They're 18.9% from three on the year, which somehow isn't the worst in the country. Baugh is out 6 games because of signing with an agent in the offseason. But the fact is TCU was supposed to be a top-15 team or so this year. People were ready to have them as the sneaky Big 12 team. Instead they look like a bubble team with an ugly loss on the resume.
OR let me introduce you to the ACC:
Florida State is 0-3 with losses to Stetson, UCF and Troy. Louisville is 0-2 with losses to Bellarmine and Wright State. Boston College just lost to Maine. Maine! Do you know how hard it is to actually lose to Maine? Not to mention BC needed a last second shot to beat Detroit. Or Clemson lost to South Carolina. Or Pitt looks like trash. The bottom of this conference is going to be real bad, like could ruin a bubble's team chances if they lose to them.
Or we could look at Nova:
Welcome to life post Jay Wright. Now, I'm not going to rip into Kyle Neptune too much because of a few things. 1) He doesn't have a point guard. Little Arch ain't the answer. 2) They need Cam Whitmore and Justin Moore healthy as fast as possible. Whitmore is the most talented player in the Big East. Moore is an experienced guard that provides that shooting the need. They didn't even hit a three against Delaware State in the first half yesterday.
Or how about Florida last night?
This was supposed to be a decent team. You know what decent teams don't do? Lose at home to Florida Atlantic. Specifically you don't lose because you give up a 9-0 run late in the game and can't pull away at home. They have experience. They have an All-American in Colin Castleton. There's plenty to like about the roster, except winning.
The Pac-12? Yeah they just stink.
Or what about Colorado losing to Grambling and then turning around to beat Tennessee? It's so bad that Rick Barnes is straight up throwing his own players under the bus … two games in:
You'd think at some point Rick Barnes would have a consistent offense. Then again, you'd think at some point Rick Barnes would realize he keeps fucking up and that's why he can't win in March. Nope. Instead you shoot 25% from the field and lose to Colorado, days after they lost to Grambling. Such a shame.
On the flip side a few teams look good. Baylor, Houston, we'll check back after tonight's Champions Classic. I don't think it's a hot take to say the first week needed bigger games but also showing that we have some teams that aren't making the jump. Teams that were overvalued. However, that also means we could get a wild NCAA Tournament. If you feel confident about the top-8/10 teams then you can expect a 6 seed in the Elite Eight. Upsets early, etc.
Can't wait for next week's tournaments. Sneaky top time of the year.
PS: I launched a new YouTube show, which will be live today (every Tuesday/Thursday) at 11am. Talking best bets, breaking down games, whatever college basketball related people want. Subscribe here: