Tracking College Football Betting Strategies (Week 10)

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We're back! After I received a shocking amount of DM's (15) from people who have been following along with my College Football Betting Strategies blog, I have new life. 

An underrated factor in all of this is whether or not I am calculating all of this correctly. Not that's it's difficult, but I'm doing a whole lot of copy & pasting. And a whole bunch of math. It's simple math, but if all these numbers are actually spot on, I would be shocked.

Here was where we stood going into last week.

Move The Line Overs: 23-7, $50 (+0.50u) 

Low Team Total Overs: 16-14: $24 (+0.24u)

Giant Money Line Favorites: 26-4, -$  (-0.60u)

First Quarter Unders: 16-15, $111 (-1.11u)

Long Shot Parlays: 0-25, -$2500 (-25.0u)

We're on a tipping point here. No strategy is completely dead yet. The Long Shot Parlay one is getting close, but if I can hit a couple of them then I'm right back to even. I have it on good authority that one of the parlays may have hit last weekend. There's only one way to find out

Let's see how we did

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 26-4, -$60 (-0.60u)

Florida @ Georgia: Georgia ML (-2500) 

Florida 20, Georgia 42 Won $16

Ohio State @ Penn State: Ohio State ML (-625) 

Ohio State 44, Penn State 31 Won $10

Georgia Tech @ Florida State: Florida State ML (-5000) 

Georgia Tech 16, Florida State 41: Won $2

South Florida @ Houston: Houston ML (-1000) 

South Florida 27, Houston 42: Won $10

Rutgers @ Minnesota: Minnesota (-625) 

Rutgers 0, Minnesota 31: Won $16

5-0, $54 (+0.54u) last week. Easy money. Exactly how I had envisioned these bets going. None of the games were even a sweat. Just need to do this one more time and we're back in the black.

Total: 31-4, -$6 (-0.06u)

Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 23-7, $50 (+0.50u)

Boston College @ UConn: Over 37

Boston College 3, UConn 13: Lost $100

Notre Dame @ Syracuse: Over 39.5

Notre Dame 41, Syracuse 24: Won $30

Miami @ Virginia: Over 40.5

Miami 14, Virginia 12 (OT): Lost $100

Michigan State @ Michigan: Over 46.5

Michigan State 7, Michigan 29: Lost $100

Wyoming @ Hawaii: Over 42

Wyoming 27, Hawaii 20: Won $30

2-3, -$240 (-2.40u) last week. Oh no. The Move The Line Overs are off the rails. Can't go 2-3 on 5 games when all the odds are worse than -200. Special shoutout to Miami and Virginia who played the worst football of all-time, socking a total of 26 points while going to OT. Actually the UConn game might have been worse. Sick offenses guys.

Total: 25-10, -$290 (-2.9u)

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 16-14: $24 (+0.24u)

Florida @ Georgia: Florida over 16.5

Florida 20, Georgia 42: Won $83

Arizona State @ Colorado: Over 16.5

Arizona State 42, Colorado 34: Won $93

Michigan State @ Michigan: Michigan State over 15.5

Michigan State 7, Michigan 29: Loss $100

Nevada @ San José State: Nevada over 9.5

Nevada 28, San Jose State 35: Won $95

3-1, $171 (+1.71u) last week. It appears I only picked 4 games for Strategy 3 this week. That was not intentional. I had a bad counting day. But maybe it was a blessing, because I'm nearly at +2 units now. Nevada and Arizona State were some of the easiest wins I've ever had. 

Total: 19-16: $195 (+1.95u)

Strategy 4: First Quarter Unders: 16-14, -$111 (-1.11u)

Notre Dame @ Syracuse: 1Q under 10.5

Total 1Q Points, 14: Lost $100

Boston College @ UConn: 1Q under 9.5

Total 1Q Points, 10: Lost $100

New Mexico State @ Mass: 1Q under 7.5

Total 1Q Points, 3: Won $78

Northwestern @ Iowa: 1Q under 7.5

Total 1Q Points, 10: Lost $100

San Diego State @ Fresno State. 1Q under 9.5

Total 1Q Points, 10: Lost $100

1-4, -$322 (-3.22u) this week. I said we were on the tipping point for a lot of these strategies, and this is another one that has tipped in the wrong direction. I'm actually upset about the Boston College/UConn loss. There were 16 points scored in that entire game, and 10 came in the 1st quarter. Disgusting.

Total: 17-18, -$433 (-4.22u)

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: Total 0-30 -$3000 (-30.0u) 

Parlay 1

Arkansas 41 @ Auburn 27: Auburn ML (+132)

Boston College 3 @ UConn 13: Boston College ML (-315)

Notre Dame 41 @ Syracuse 24: Notre Dame ML (+108)

Ohio State 44 @ Penn State 31: Ohio State (-625)

Oklahoma 27 @ Iowa State13 : Oklahoma (-1.5)

Lost $100

Parlay 2

Miami 14 @ Virginia 12: Miami ML (-134)

Rutgers 0 @ Minnesota 31: Rutgers (+14)

Florida 20 @ Georgia 42: Florida (+23.5)

Illinois 26 @ Nebraska 9: Nebraska (+7.5)

Northwestern 13 @ Iowa 33: Northwestern (+11)

Lost $100

Parlay 3

Oklahoma State 9 @ Kansas State 48: Oklahoma State ML (+100)

Wake Forest 21 @ Louisville 48: Wake Forest (-165)

Missouri 23 @ South Carolina 10: South Carolina ML (-177)

Missouri 23 @ South Carolina 10: Over 45.5 (-112)

Kentucky 6 @ Tennessee 44: Tennessee ML (-420)

Lost $100

Parlay 4

Missouri 23 @ South Carolina 10: Missouri ML (+143)

Kentucky 6 @ Tennessee 44: Under 61 (-110)

Michigan State 7 @ Michigan 29: Michigan State (+23)

Ole Miss 31 @ Texas A&M 28: Ole Miss ML (-129)

Pittsburgh 24 @ North Carolina 42: North Carolina ML (-157)

WON $2,474.29

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

Parlay 5

Miami (OH) 27 @ Akron 9: Miami (OH) ML (-335)

TCU 41 @ West Virginia 31: TCU ML (-275)

Old Dominion 17 @ Georgia State 31: Old Dominion ML (+140)

Illinois 26 @ Nebraska 9: Illinois ML (-286)

North Texas 40 @ Western Kentucky 13: North Texas ML (+255)

Lost $100

1-4, $2,074 (+20.74u) this week!!! I finally did it! I should have done it twice too if Old Dominion would have showed up. I'm so back. Horrible week otherwise, but now I'm just won parlay away from making money (fake money) on the Long Shot Parlays. I said last week I was going to pick them as fast as possible, so I'm going to go even faster this week.

Total: 1-34, -$926 (-9.26u)

Here are the standing heading into this week.

Low Team Total Overs: 19-16: $195 (+1.95u)

Giant Money Line Favorites: 31-4, -$6 (-0.06u)

Move The Line Overs:  25-10, -$290 (-2.9u)

1st Quarter Unders: 17-18, -$433 (-4.22u)

Long Shot Parlays: 1-34, -$926 (-9.26u)

This blog is all about the Long Shot Parlays now. What a rush to win so much hypothetical money in a single bet.

Here are the picks for this week.

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 31-4, -$6 (-0.06u)

Minnesota @ Nebraska: Minnesota ML (-670)

$100 to win $15

Michigan State @ Illinois: Illinois ML (-1000)

$100 to win $10

Penn State @ Indiana: Penn State ML (-590)

$100 to win $17

Arizona @ Utah: Utah ML (-835)

$100 to win $12

California @ USC: USC ML (-1667)

$100 to win $6

Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs:  25-10, -$290 (-2.9u)

Tennessee @ Georgia: Over 58 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Oregon State @ Washington: Over 45 (-335)

$100 to win $30

Florida @ Texas A&M: Over 47.5 (-295)

$100 to win $34

Minnesota @ Nebraska: Over 37 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Penn State @ Indiana: Over 41.5 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 19-16: $195 (+1.95u)

Umass @ UConn: UMass over 11.5 (-114)

$100 to win $88

Ohio State @ Northwestern: Northwestern over 7.5 (+102)

$100 to win $102

Michigan State @ Illinois: Michigan State over 10.5 (-109)

$100 to win $92

Michigan @ Rutgers: Rutgers over 9.5 (-109)

$100 to win $92

Colorado State @ San José State: Colorado State over 9.5 (-121)

$100 to win $83

Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 17-18, -$433 (-4.22u)

Duke @ Boston College: 1Q under 10.5 (-152)

$100 to win $66

UMass @ UConn: 1Q under 7.5 (-115)

$100 to win $87

Iowa @ Purdue: 1Q under 7.5 (-124)

$100 to win $81

Kentucky @ Missouri: 1Q under 7.5 (-120)

$100 to win $84

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech: 1Q under 7.5 (-118)

$100 to win $85

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 1-34, -$926 (-9.26u)

I might fuck around and actually bet these this week. I would have had $1000 to play with if I had cashed out my Phillies World Series bet, but that never happened, but I can sure $10 for each game.

Parlay 1

Kentucky @ Missouri: Kentucky ML (-115)

Iowa @ Purdue: Purdue ML (-177)

Alabama @ LSU: LSU (+13.5)

Texas Tech @ TCU: TCU (-335)

Tennessee @ Georgia: Tennessee ML (+225)

$100 to win $2,269.20

Parlay 2

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech ML (-155)

Baylor @ Oklahoma: Oklahoma ML (-167)

Michigan State @ Illinois: Michigan State (+17)

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh ML (-180)

West Virginia @ Iowa State: West Virginia (+7)

$100 to win $1,394.32

Parlay 3

Liberty @ Arkansas: Liberty (+14.5)

Navy @ Cincinnati: Navy (+18.5)

Arizona @ Utah: Arizona (+17.5)

Auburn @ Mississippi State (+12.5)

Florida @ Miami: Miami (+8)

$100 to win $1,394.32

Parlay 4

Wake Forest @ NC State: Wake Forest (-4)

UCLA @ Arizona State: UCLA (-11)

Hawaii @ Fresno State: Hawaii (+27.5)

Texas @ Kansas State: Kansas State ML (+117)

Oklahoma State @ Kansas: Oklahoma State ML (-108)

$100 to win $2,787.74

Parlay 5

Tennessee @ Georgia: Georgia (-8.5)

UMass @ UConn: Under 40

Iowa @ Purdue: Over 39.5

Maryland @ Wisconsin: Maryland ML (+155)

Marshall @ Old Dominion: Marshall ML (-152)

$100 to win $2880.47