Tracking College Football Betting Strategies (Week 8)

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Bad news guys. I might not be good at gambling. I also might be learning anything with this experiment. To be perfectly honest, I forget what I was even hoping to learn by doing this. I think I said it was to find out which strategy was more fun to bet? What the fuck does that even mean? More fun? The bets I'm having the most fun tracking are the bets that win. 

"Betting is more fun when you win" - John Rich

Ok awesome experiment over. Sick conclusion John you're basically a scientist. 

Again, I can't stress enough how much I'm not actually betting these games. I'm just in the lab every week testing out some super cool betting strategies.

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Oh well, I still want to see if I can end up "plus money" in a couple of these strategies at least. With the exception of the Long Shot Parlays (who would have guessed that wouldn't be hitting), I've actually been doing alright.

Here were the standings headed into last week

Standings Headed Into Last Week

Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 13-7, $345, (+3.45u)

Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 16-4, $124 (+1.24u)

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 11-9, $106, (+1.06u)

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 17-3, -$71, (-0.71u)

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays Total 0-20, -$2000, (-20.0)

Let's see how last weeks picks did.

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: going into last week 17-3, -$71, (-0.71u)

Buffalo @ UMass: Buffalo (-835)

Buffalo 34, UMass 7: Won $12

Maryland @ Indiana: Maryland (-420)

Maryland 34, Indiana 33: Won $24

Wisconsin @ Michigan State: Wisconsin (-305)

Wisconsin 28, Michigan State 34 (2OT): Loss $100

Arizona @ Washington: Washington (-625)

Arizona 39, Washington 49: Won $16

Nebraska @ Purdue: Purdue (-590)

Nebraska 37, Purdue 43: Won $17

4-1, -$31 (-0.31u) this week. I picked Michigan State for so long thinking they had to be a little better than they were playing. Of course they win as soon as I give up on them. Finally put me blow 1 unit. I started getting too greedy with these. The problem is the real automatic winners are like -2500. I can't bring myself to risk $100 to win $4. But that might have been the better experiment.. 

Total: 21-4, -$102, (-1.02u)

Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: going into last week 16-4, $124 (+1.24u)

Iowa State @ Texas: Over 40.5

Iowa State 21, Texas 24: Won $32

Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green: Over 37.5

Miami (OH) 13, Bowling Green 17: Loss $100

NC State @ Syracuse: Over 34.5

NC State 9, Syracuse 24: Loss $100

Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Over 40.5

Mississippi State 17, Kentucky 27: Won $32

Nevada @ Hawaii: Over 41

Nevada 16, Hawaii 31: Won $32

3-2, -$104 (-1.04u) this week. I don't have much of a defense for the Bowling Green, Miami pick. I wanted to cheer for my alma mater to score some points. Didn't happen, but at least they got the win. 34 seemed like such a low number for a game with Syracuse in it. But despite a consistently high ranking, NC State has only scored over 20 points against FCS teams twice this year. I might go for some higher overs this week. I'm always blinded by the numbers in the low 40's/high 30's. They seem so easy until you start watching the games and realize how horrible some of these offenses are. But we're still plus money for the year.

Total 19-6, $20 (+0.20u)

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: going into last week 11-9, $106, (+1.06u)

Vanderbilt @ Georgia: Vanderbilt over 9.5

Vanderbile 0, Georgia 55: Loss $100

UTSA @ FIU: FIU over 14.5

UTSA 30, FIU 10: Loss $100

Minnesota @ Illinois: Illinois over 16.5

Minnesota 14, Illinois 26: Won $93

New Mexico @ New Mexico State: New Mexico State over 15.5

New Mexico 9, New Mexico State 21: Won $85

San Jose State @ Fresno State: Fresno State over 18.5

San Jose State 10, Fresno State 17: Loss $100

2-3, -$122, (-1.22u) this week. Thank you Vanderbilt. You tried really hard and I appreciate it. This strategy is unraveling. Everything is unraveling. These are always fun to cheer for because they're never quite dead (except for Vanderbilt that was never not dead). Who would have thought that a strategy that relies on the worst college football teams scoring points wouldn't work out. But I still like it in theory. I've always felt like the more uncomfortable a bet makes you, the better it is. Stu Feiner taught me that.

Total: 13-12, -$16 (-0.16u)

Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: going into last week 13-7, $345, (+3.45u)

Kansas @ Oklahoma: 1Q under 13.5

1Q Points, 28: Loss $100

Alabama @ Tennessee: 1Q under 14.5

1Q Points, 28: Loss $100

James Madison @ Georgia Southern: 1Q under 14.5

1Q Points, 7: Won $70

North Carolina @ Duke: 1Q under 14.5

1Q Points, 17: Loss $100

USC @ Utah: 1Q under 14.5

1Q Points, 21: Loss $100

1-4, -$330 (-3.30u) this week. Oh no. What a blood bath. Especially on the Kansas/Oklahoma & Alabama/Tennessee. I was remarkably hot on these 1Q unders up until the last couple of weeks. All those great picks to start the year wiped away in one terrible week. I thought it would go agains the grain last week and pick some better offenses, but that certainly didn't work. Going to go back to shitty offenses this week to try and get the magic back.

Total: 14-11, $15 (+0.15u)

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays Total going into last week 0-20, -$2000, (-20.0)

Parlay 1

LSU @ Florida: Florida ML (-148)

LSU 45, Florida 35

Clemson @ Florida State: Clemson ML (-177)

Clemson 34, Florida State 28

Vanderbilt @ Georgia: Georgia (-38.5)

Georgia 55, Vanderbilt 0

Arkansas @ BYU: Arkansas ML (-109)

Arkansas 52, BYU 35

Iowa State @ Texas: Over 48.5

Iowa State 21, Texas 24

Loss $100

Parlay 2

Iowa State @ Texas: Iowa State (+15.5)

Iowa State 21, Texas 24

Auburn @ Ole Miss: Auburn (+15) 

Auburn 34, Ole Miss 48

NC State @ Syracuse: NC State ML (+143)

NC State 9, Syracuse 24

Oklahoma State @ TCU: TCU ML (-186)

Oklahoma State 40, TCU 43 (2OT)

Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Mississippi State ML (-186) 

Mississippi State 17, Kentucky 27

Loss $100

Parlay 3

Wisconsin @ Michigan State: Wisconsin ML (-305) 

Wisconsin 28, Michigan State 34 (2OT)

LSU @ Florida: LSU ML (+120)

LSU 45, Florida 35

Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Kentucky ML (+145) 

Mississippi State 17, Kentucky 27

Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Under 49

Mississippi State 17, Kentucky 27

USC @ Utah: Utah ML (-167)

USC 42, Utah 43

Loss $100

Parlay 4

Penn State @ Michigan: Michigan ML (-286)

Penn State 17, Michigan 41

Alabama @ Tennessee: Tennessee (+9) 

Alabama 49, Tennessee 53

NC State @ Syracuse: Over 42

NC State 9, Syracuse 24

North Carolina @ Duke: Duke ML (+200) 

North Carolina 38, Duke 35

USC @ Utah: USC ML (+135) 

USC 42, Utah 43

Loss $100

Parlay 5

North Carolina @ Duke: North Carolina ML (-265)

North Carolina 38, Duke 35

Clemson @ Florida State: Florida State ML (+145)

Clemson 34, Florida State 28

Oklahoma State @ TCU: Oklahoma State ML (+150)

Oklahoma State 40, TCU 43 (2OT)

Alabama @ Tennessee: Alabama (-9)

Alabama 49, Tennessee 52

NC State @ Syracuse: Syracuse ML (-175)

NC State 9, Syracuse 24

Loss $100

0-5, -$500 (-5.0u) this week. I can't believe Michigan State beating Wisconsin is what ruined Parlay 3. That was the bet with the best odds of winning, and it fucked me. I really thought if I just bet the same game a bunch of different ways, then one of the parlays would HAVE to hit. That's just not how gambling works. They quite literally set the odds to prevent that exact thing from being a possibility. 

Total: 0-25, -$2500 (-25.0u)

Here's where were at headed into this weekend

Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 19-6, $20 (+0.20u)

Strategy 4: First Quarter Unders: 14-11, $15 (+0.15u)

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 13-12, -$16 (-0.16u)

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 21-4, -$102, (-1.02u)

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 0-25, -$2500 (-25.0u)

Up until now, I could at least be like, "Hey a few of these have been pretty profitable."

Not anymore. Although I can still say, "I haven't completely lost my ass on most of these." So I got that going for me at least. Going to need a big week to salvage this thing (whatever "this thing" is).

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites: 21-4, -$102, (-1.02u)

Northwestern @ Maryland: Maryland ML (-590)

$100 to win $17

Akron @ Kent State: Kent State ML (-1000)

$100 to win $10

Colorado @ Oregon State: Oregon State ML (-5000)

$100 to win $2

Mississippi State @ Alabama: Alabama ML (-1430)

$100 to win $7

Boston College @ Wake Forest: Wake Forest ML (-1667)

$100 to win $6

I'm going to go 5-0 this week. I don't care if I'm winning a few dollars on $100 bets. The Alabama bet might be the dumbest one of them all. Coming off a loss, I suppose they should roll Mississippi State, but Mississippi State is a very solid team. There no worse than Texas A&M who played Alabama close this year. 

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Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 19-6, $20 (+0.20u)

Kansas @ Baylor: Over 49.5

$100 to win $32

Duke @ Miami: Over 49.5

$100 to win $33

Texas @ Oklahoma State: Over 51.5

$100 to win $33

Mississippi State @ Alabama: Over 52.5

$100 to win $34

Kansas State @ TCU: Over 45.5

$100 to win $32

Switching it up this week and actually picking some good offenses. No more grinding out 37 point Iowa totals. I need to cheer for something competent this week

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs: 13-12, -$16 (-0.16u)

Iowa @ Ohio State: Iowa over 9.5

$100 to win $85

Syracuse @ Clemson: Syracuse over 16.5

$100 to win $75

UNLV @ Notre Dame: UNLV over 9.5

$100 to win $80

Vanderbilt @ Missouri: Vanderbilt over 16.5

$100 to win $78

Colorado @ Oregon State: Colorado over 12.5

$100 to win $80

I will not be cheering for anyone competent here. That goes against the whole purpose of this strategy. I love when I can get team total overs in single digits. I'll never pass those up. Somehow my mind has been poisoned to think Syracuse has this incredible offense that scores 50 points per game. That's just not true. But 16.5 still seems shockingly low, even against Clemson. Definitely feel the worst about Vanderbilt considering I had their team total against Georgia last week and they put up 0 points. Vandy scoring over 16.5 seems pretty farfetched.

Strategy 4: First Quarter Unders: 14-11, $15 (+0.15u)

Bowling Green @ Central Michigan: 1Q under 10.5

$100 to win $78

Purdue @ Wisconsin: 1Q under 10.5

$100 to win $84

Western Michigan @ Miami (OH): 1Q under 9.5

$100 to win $96

Fresno State @ New Mexico: 1Q under 8.5

$100 to win $87

San Diego State @ Nevada: 1Q under 7.5

$100 to win $67

Going back to terrible offenses, and low numbers this week. I was operating on the theory that even good offenses take a while to get going sometimes, but that has not been the case the last few weeks. Boy oh boy did I pick some shitty games this week.

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 0-25, -$2500 (-25.0u)

Not going to try to hedge every parlay with another parlay this week. We're going to go with 5 wildly different bets. 

Parlay 1: Big Home Favorites

Iowa @ Ohio State: Ohio State (-30)

Kansas @ Baylor: Baylor (-10) 

Syracuse @ Clemson: Clemson (-14)

Northwestern @ Maryland: Maryland (-14)

Vanderbilt @ Missouri: Missouri (-14)

$100 to win $2,402.02

I've been losing my ass trying to sneak in slight money line dogs into all my parlays, because "it'll probably be a close game, it could go either way." Not in this parlay. Hoping the better teams take care of business this week.

Parlay 2: Slight Money Line Favorites

Bowling Green @ Central Michigan: Central Michigan (-235)

Ole Miss @ LSU: LSU (-130)

Minnesota @ Penn State: Penn State (-200)

Texas A&M @ South Carolina: Texas A&M (-159)

Kansas State @ TCU: TCU (-175)

I mean, all of those teams should win right? Except maybe LSU, that one scares me a lot. Winning this parlay would barely even put a dent in the hypothetical $2500 I am in the hole for this strategy, but I have to find some sort of win somewhere.

$100 to win $883.98

Parlay 3: Underdogs

Duke @ Miami: Duke (+10)

West Virginia @ Texas Tech: West Virginia (+5.5)

Marshall @ James Madison: Marshall (+11.5)

Texas @ Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State (+6)

UCLA @ Oregon: UCLA (+6.5)

I feel like all of these teams could win outright. UCLA is ranked #9 in the country and is getting 6.5? That's kind of wild. Let's hope for 5 close games here

$100 to win $2,481.80

Parlay 4: High Overs

West Virginia @ Texas Tech: Over 65.5

Ole Miss @ LSU: Over 65

UCLA @ Oregon: Over 71

Mississippi State @ Alabama: Over 61

Texas @ Oklahoma State: Over 60.5

I just thought these sounded fun. Everyone loves points.

$100 to win $2481.94

Parlay 5: Low Unders

UNLV @ Notre Dame: Under 47

Fresno State @ New Mexico: Under 40.5

Minnesota @ Penn State: Under 43

Texas A&M @ South Carolina: Under 44.5

San Diego State @ Nevada: Under 36

Just going the complete opposite of the previous parlay.

$100 to win $2,388.92