There have been lotttttts of scandals in the non-traditional corners of the sports world recently. Fisherman allegedly shoving lead weights in fish. Chess champions allegedly shoving anal beads in themselves. And now potentially a scandal in sports card collecting.
In the sports card hobby, there are "Breaks". In a break, you can buy spots, usually based on team, in an unopened box of cards. When the breaker opens the box, any cards that match your spot go to you. Breaks allow you to buy into a box of cards without having to buy the entire box and it can be entertaining to watch the cards being opened, looking for those rare cards.
There are countless people in the hobby who host breaks. But there are a few major players that break everyday. One of these is Backyard Breaks out of South Florida. Most people know Backyard Breaks for giving away a Trevor Lawrence card but then changing their mind when they realized its value.
Putting that Gold Kaboom Scandal aside, their exaggerated celebrations and over the top yelling isn't for me, but it's clearly entertaining to a lot of people. They continue to break daily on multiple channels across multiple platforms and are probably the largest breaker in the hobby. They break a lot of product and they hit a lot of valuable cards.
On the surface, that makes sense. But Backyard Breaks isn't just hitting valuable cards. They are hitting the most valuable of the valuable cards. Out of the most expensive NBA card sets from this year, Backyard Breaks has hit the TOP 4 most valuable cards. What are the odds? Let's find out!
Eric Whiteback did the math and made a great thread on Twitter on what the odds are of Backyard Breaks hitting those 4 cards. If you enjoy statistics, it's a good read.
I'm not a math guy, but these seem like pretty crazy odds especially since Eric is using very conservative numbers.
Eric came up with three possible conclusions, and if his math is right, they seem like reasonable conclusions. (I'm not a math guy)
I reached out to Eric to dive more into the numbers, what could be happening, and how this impacts the hobby.
This isn't just fishy. It's fishy with lead weights!
I look forward to the Netflix special on this coming out in a few years.