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Vegas Oddsmakers Continue To Fail At Underestimating The Chicago Bears

Kamil Krzaczynski. Shutterstock Images.

If good teams win and great teams cover, what does that make teams that don't win, don't cover, and don't even beat their implied score in games when the over/under is the lowest of the year or in the history of the NFL? That makes them the Chicago Bears.

This offense is seriously bad and has zero interest in becoming in any way mistaken with contemporary. Every week I feel like I should be watching the game in black and white. This offense is confounding everyone and that includes oddsmakers as week after week the Bears continue to tempt them to dial the over/under for any Bears game back to that of the "possibly mob/possibly just Italian photographers allowed in the endzone" era:


Thursday Night's laugher was certainly predictable. But the Bears showed that despite how much oddsmakers underestimate them, they prove how overestimated they can be. You tell them their offense sucks - they make you look dumb for thinking they were that good. Show you what I mean. Check out this list of the ten lowest over/under games of 2022 so far:

Thursday's over/under total was set at 38.5, but I also saw 38 which would tie two other games for lowest of the season including - oh look at that - another Chicago Bears game. The Bears have been involved in 40 percent of this list all while only managing to beat the over/under once. But hey, maybe this is because the Bears' opponents didn't pull their weight, right? Wrong. I worked out the implied score (basically what oddsmakers presume a team should score based on over/under and spread) and they only beat that once too vs the Texans - a team literally so bad they are currently offering jersey returns for store credit.

Despite the low over/under, these two pathetic franchises came up 19.5 points short of the total - good for 7th worst difference in over/under vs actual of the year. That's… not great. But nothing Bears fans aren't used to. Looking back in all of NFL history, this team has their paws in six of the lowest 22 over/unders ever:

It's hard to even grasp an over/under of 31 for today's NFL. Remember that game a couple years ago when Taysom Hill started at quarterback for the Saints vs his counterpart, wide receiver Kendall Hinton, of the Broncos? Yeah, that one was set at 36.5. And I'm sure you're all shocked to see the Bears involved in one of the two lowest over/under games of all time (28) which, by the way, they didn't even hit their implied total on of 15.5. That Bears team was so sad they lost to the Erik Kramer led Lions in that game which convinced the Bears to sign him the following year. 


What a joke. This team is a joke. Always have been. Always will be. At least no one will ever overestimate them on that.

- Jeffro