Creighton Is The Most Overhyped Team Heading Into College Basketball And It's Not Even A Debate
It's media day everywhere and college basketball takes are being thrown around. It's time for me to give mine. Creighton fans, I love you, you have the most overrated team heading into the year. Don't get me wrong, Creighton will be fine. But I've seen people talk about them as a top-5 team in the country. Thats not the case. This is exactly what happens every year to a handful of teams and this season it's simple.
Creighton is not making the jump from the 50th team on KenPom and a 9 seed a year ago to a 2 seed. Even other advanced analytics say they aren't there yet. They are 32nd in Haslam and 24th in Torvik. That's decent, but not exactly numbers that puts them top-10.
That rarely happens. Last year the team was UCLA. They famously made the run from the First Four to the Final Four. Impressive. But there's also a reason they were in the First Four. They made 'the jump' and still ended up as a 4 seed. That's basically what I see with Creighton.
Again let me preface this. Creighton is going to be fine. I think they are more top-15/20 than top-5 that's all. It starts with Baylor Scheierman the big time transfer they got from South Dakota State. I'm usually hesitant to believe a mid-major transfer can make this huge splash but it's a little different. He won't have to score like he does at South Dakota State. Creighton brings back enough around him to let him do his thing without the pressure. That's immediately why Creighton has this sort of expectations.
But the offense is still a bit of concern. I know they were young last year. I know Ryan Nembhard missed the last 7 games or so after getting hurt. But they were still sub-300 in turnover percentage and 3pt percentage. They also didn't get to the foul line. That all needs to be cleaned up for them to be up top.
They are currently 25/1 to win the title on the Barstool Sportsbook. That's good enough for 11th best odds. That tells me more than some of the human rankings I've seen where they are all top-10. I'm going to guess they have the 2nd best odds to win the Big East behind Nova - I'm going to fade that. Give me Xavier (don't be afraid to sprinkle a little on Butler too with Matta there).
If Creighton fans want me to say something nice? Fine. Ryan Kalkbrenner might be the most underrated player in the conference. Dude has a legit chance to win Defensive Player of the Year and is exactly what Creighton needs in that spot. I like their roster, but I just think the talk of them as a top seed needs to be tempered.