Back for another weekend of college football. For once, last Saturday wasn't great to me. That said, quality over quantity is the game and I'm 9-4 in college this season. Let's get into a great spot today.
Currently at the Barstool Sportsbook, Maryland is a 3.5 point favorite and the total is 59.
Purdue has been a fun offense to back this year. QB Aidan O'Connell has been one of the more steady signal callers in the country completing 65 percent of his passes, throwing for 1200 yards and is 15th in America in QBR. The Brohm offense has always been pretty simple, throw throw throw. Purdue throws more than all but four team in America and have some terrific weapons on the outside in Charlie Jones, Tyrone Tracy and tight end Payne Durham. The thing I like as well here is Maryland doesn't get to the QB much upfront and struggle in the secondary. It should be open season for this offense. Maryland has faced two high level offenses in Michigan and SMU and had trouble getting stops in both of them. Purdue also plays fast sitting top 25 in America in seconds per play. They get up and down in a hurry.
If there's a better passing offense than Purdue, it's Maryland. These team can wing it throwing for over 303 yards a game. They do it with a quality offensive line, a great group of wideouts and a QB with great bloodlines whose durable. Taulia Tagovailoa has a completion percentage at almost 76 percent which is 2nd nationally. The offense is quick, effective and gets the job done. They also spread the catches around. Maryland has SIX players with ten or more catches on the season and SEVEN different players with a TD. The thing I wonder about for Purdue's defense is has it really been tested? This team obviously lost some talent, most notably DE George Karfalitis and outside of Penn State, who scored 35, who have they played? Some people will mention Minnesota, but without RB Mo Ibrahim they are a shell of themselves offensively. I get the feeling, when the ball is kicked and they go on defense, the secondary will struggle against a multi faceted passing attack in the Terps.
The one other thing I love about this matchup is both are excellent at scoring TD's in the red zone. Both teams are top 10 in the country at getting 7 when it matters most, the real key to hitting an over. These teams have been in the red zone 38 times combined and have 32 TD's, 84 percent. There aren't many teams better than that. I'll also say, I had this number at 65. So anything under that I see immense value, this game screams first to 35 wins. I think in the end its like 38-28, 35-31. We have a good ol fashioned shootout on our hands folks.
I played OVER 59. If you want more breakdowns and college football talk, check out my weekly football betting show on the Barstool Sportsbook YouTube channel at 4pm EST on Thursdays. Here's this weeks episode: