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FOOTBALL SATURDAY... Let's Get A Winner

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So last night I came up short… losing with Houston TT OVER 28.5. I thought I maybe had a renewed lease on life when it got to overtime but I fell short. Houston did what they do and are just a poorly coached team. But we move on, can't win em all… sitting at 9-3 on the season.

Currently at Barstool Sportsbook, Iowa St is -3 (-115) at Kansas and the total is 58.5.

Straight out of the gate… I wanna give Kansas some love. What Leipold has done in Lawrence is respectable, impressive and damn cool. They have moved the ball at a really high level and will play in front of a sellout for football, not basketball, which I don't ever remember seeing when it comes to KU. That said, a lot of fanfare in this game, a lot to live up to, and a really good team coming in. 

I like Iowa State in this game. There are several reasons for that. First is first, this Cyclones offense is impressive. Hunter Dekkers is really finding himself at QB and don't look now but he has ten touchdowns in four games. They are coming off a loss in a back and forth game last week against Baylor, but Dekkers just needs to protect the football a bit better and he will get a great matchup here against a Kansas defense that can't stop anyone. Kansas is allowing over six yards per play and nearly a 70 percent of their passes. Iowa St is going to get there's on offense, keep an eye on Xavier Hutchinson one of the most underrated wideouts in the country. He had a huge game last season in this matchup. 

This will certainly be the best defense Kansas has faced. The Cyclones are allowing under four yards per play and are downright stingy allowing 2.3 yards per carry and opposing QB's are competing just 58 percent of their passes. Kansas has moved it, and the red zone numbers are impressive but facing a team who now has plenty of tape on you and a great coach I have some real concerns for high flying Kansas. Daniels has faced the likes of Tenn Tech, Duke, Houston, and WVU… all teams that can't stop anybody. Kansas has been great in the red zone getting there 24 times, Iowa St will be much better than the above talked about teams. The Cyclones have only allowed ten red zone trips all season.

Keep in mind as well how good Matt Campbell is in this spot as a coach as well… as a favorite of 3 or less, he's 34-18 in his career against the number. This line to me is a bit too low. This is a major step up spot for Kansas against a damn good defense and a really underrated Cyclones offense off a loss. Remember to, I know Iowa St is a bit different team but they absolutely pulverized Kansas last season 59-7. I am beginning to realize Iowa State is a really solid team, sorry but I think Kansas is a bit gimmicky and while it's cool they have some things working for them, this is a lot of pressure. 

I played Iowa St -3 here.