FOOTBALL FRIDAY: Let's Get Another Winner

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These blog write ups in football so far this year have been really good to me. If you are playing along at home, I am 9-2 and feeling great. As we know with gambling though, the tides can turn, so let me just keep doing my thing. One game at a time. 

Tonight there's actually a pretty damn good card out there. We have four games and I really like one of these matchups. 

Houston is a 2.5 point favorite at home tonight against Tulane. The total is 54.5. 

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Houston has for most of the year been a pretty disappointing team. In non conference play, they really struggled to get stops on defense which aided in why they are 2-2 headed into conference play. The good thing for them though now is those games don't matter in the grand scheme of things, conference play is where you can win a title. Tonight they get a Friday night matchup with a team they have dominated recently. Over the last four games against Tulane, Houston is 3-1 including winning the last two, both by 18. In all four matchups Houston has scored 31 or more points, and in three scored 40 or more. 

This season for the Cougars, offense hasn't really been the problem. They have eclipsed 30 points in every game. We could also say they probably can even improve on that as their red zone TD percentage is only at 50 percent on the season. 20 attempts and only ten td's, that could be something that could further aid this offense. In my opinion, they have one of the best overall WR units in the country. Slot guy Tank Dell is terrific, with almost 400 receiving yards in four games and three touchdowns. They also have three other guys with over 100 receiving yards on the season. This is a balanced group who can all contribute. QB Clayton Tune has gotten significantly better over his career as well, and his home numbers are very solid. He's very accurate and in two games in Houston this season, he's averaging 9.1 yards per pass attempt and completing 72 percent of his passes.

A lot of people will raise their eyebrows and say, "well what about Tulane's defense?" "They have a top tier D in the country?" I'm not buying it. While the numbers have shined pretty brightly on the Green Wave, we have to further inspect what we've seen and who we saw it against. They played the worst team in the country in UMASS, who I've outlined in other blogs has a 40 percent completion percentage as a team, FCS TEAM Alcorn St, a team that doesn't throw and K State, a slow paced team who wants to run the ball also. 

Now I'll say this. winning and holding them to ten points was impressive, but the game was sluggish, low scoring and just had that feel. K State is not a big play offense. The Wildcats have just three plays this year of 30 yards or more and run the ball 60+ percent of the time. Tulane followed up that big win with a 27-24 outright loss to lowly Southern Miss. Now USM is not a good offense either sitting at just 20 points a game, but were able to move the ball. Do we see a pattern here? These numbers are FUGAZI. Now they head on the road to face a big play offense that has never had issues moving the ball against them as noted above. One other glaring issue I think Tulane faces in this game is they get absolutely no pressure on defense. The Green Wave manage just over a half a sack a game, one of the worst marks in the country. Letting Clayton Tune have time to find his really good wideouts is not a good recipe for success. 

I also mentioned how bad Houston's defense has looked. Now I don't personally love Michael Pratt as a quarterback, but I also don't love Houston as a defense. I'll hope that they get off the field and or try and create more possessions with turnovers as they did in the game against Rice. This Cougar defense actually is pretty good upfront and present some problems. But I don't want them playing into my handicap here.

I'm backing Houston's offense against a defense I'm not buying. I played Houston team total OVER 28.5 (-109) at Barstool Sportsbook.

If you want more great college football breakdowns, go check out my Barstool Sportsbook YouTube channel show, Big Man On Betting LIVE every Thursday at 4pm EST. Here's this weeks show: