Tracking College Football Betting Strategies (Week 5)

Brynn Anderson. Shutterstock Images.

Ah yes, the blog you have most certainly all been waiting for and following along with. 

If you are one of the few people who haven't been following along closely, the purpose of this blog is to experiment with 5 different gambling strategies to see if/which ones I could theoretically make money with. I'm not pretending that I'm actually betting all of these. I'm very broke. It's really just an experiment that I'm doing for myself. I enjoy putting these (admittedly dumb) strategies together and seeing how they fair each week. This is the 3rd week I've done this.

Here's how my strategies faired last weekend

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites - going into last week, 4-1, -$42.00 (-0.58u)

Tulsa @ Ole Miss: Ole Miss (-1667)

WIN $6

Florida Atlantic @ Purdue: Purdue (-770)

WIN $13

Rice @ Houston: Houston (-910)

WIN $11

Fordham @ Ohio: Ohio (-1000)

WIN $10

Maryland @ Michigan: Michigan (-100)

WIN $10

5-0, +$50 (+0.5u) this week. Very nice, very nice. Not a single one of those were comfortable. Just a preposterously stupid way to make $50 by risking $500 (theoretically).

TOTAL 9-1, $8 (+0.08u) - what are even doing here?

Strategy #2: Move the Line Overs - going into last week 5-0, $163 (+1.63u)

Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Over 41.5 (-315)

WIN $32

Duke @ Kansas: Over 54.5 (-315)

WIN $32

Bowling Green @ Mississippi State: Over 44.5 (-315)

WIN $32

Baylor @ Iowa State: Over 37.5 (-305)

WIN $33

Virginia @ Syracuse: Over 45.5 (-295)

LOSS $100

4-1, $29 (+0.29u) this week. Virginia/Syracuse was ugly on Friday. Really thought Dino Babers and Syracuse were a safe bet. That's such a low total for them. Oh well, we're still in the black. I'm actually up more than a single unit here. Nearly 2 units! Feels good.

TOTAL 9-1, $192, (+1.92u) 

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs - going into last week, 2-3,-$136 (-1.36u)

Bowling Green @ Mississippi St: Bowling Green over 10.5 (+112)

WIN $112

Vanderbilt @ Alabama: Vanderbilt over 7.5 (-106)

LOSS $100

UConn @ NC State: UConn over 3.5 (-108)

WIN $93 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

New Mexico @ LSU: New Mexico over 6.5 (-159)

LOSS $100

Kent St @ Georgia: Kent St over 7.5 (-107)

WIN $94

3-2, $99, (+0.99u). UCONN!!!!! What a week for UCONN scoring more than the expected 3.5 points. They tripled it up! 10 points! Incredible performance. They must feel great about that 41-10 loss to NC State. Watching the team you bet on not got over such a pathetically low number is disheartening. You go into the game thinking it's so easy. They just have to hit on a couple of plays, right? Well guess what, they don't. I just sit there and watch New Mexico Football score 0 points, without ever even coming close.

TOTAL 6-6, -$37, (-0.37u)

Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders - going into last week, 5-0, $390 (+3.90u)

USC @ Oregon St: 1Q under 14.5

WIN $82

James Madison @ Appalachian St: 1Q under 13.5

WIN $94

Florida @ Tennessee: 1Q under 13.5

WIN $98

South Florida @ Lousiville: 1Q under 14.5

WIN $55

Virginia @ Syracuse: 1Q under 12.5

WIN $91

5-0, $420, (+4.20u). Well damn. I think I maybe unlocked something here. Teams just don't score in the 1st quarter. Even the games that go over by the end, they start out so slow. The 1st quarter goes by so fast. Teams are running the ball, nobody seems to be in a hurry to snap it. This has been delightful!

TOTAL 10-0, $810, (+8.10u)

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays - going into last week, 0-5, -$500 (-5.0)

Parlay 1

Duke @ Kansas: Over 63.5 L

Kent State @ Georgia: Georgia (-45) L

Florida @ Tennessee: Florida (+10.5) W

James Madison @ Appalachian St: James Madison (+7) W

Indiana @ Cincinnati: Indiana (+16.5) L

LOSS $100

Parlay 2

Minnesota @ Michigan St: Michigan St ML (+128) L

James Madison @ Appalachian St: James Madison ML (+205) W

Maryland @ Michigan: Michigan (-17.5) L

Duke @ Kansas: Kansas ML (-305) W

Clemson @ Wake Forest: Clemson ML (-278) W

LOSS $100

Parlay 3

Texas @ Texas Tech: Under 61 L

Notre Dame @ North Carolina: Notre Dame ML (+102) W

Missouri @ Auburn: Missouri (+7) W

Bowling Green @ Mississippi State: Bowling Green (+31) PUSH

Baylor @ Iowa State: Baylor ML (+114) W

LOSS $100 - Damn… lost because I bet the under in a Texas Tech game. What a fucking idiot. 

Parlay 4

Iowa @ Rutgers: Rutgers (+8.5) L

Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Arkansas ML (+106) L

Arizona @ California: California ML (-167) W

Oregon @ Washington State: Oregon ML (-250) W

Toledo @ San Diego State: Toledo ML (-152) L

LOSS $100

Parlay 5

USC @ Oregon State: USC ML (-240) W

Vanderbilt @ Alabama: Alabama (-40.5) W

Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Ohio State (-19) W

UConn @ NC State: NC State (-38.5) L

Northern Illinois @ Kentucky: Under 54 PUSH

LOSS $100

0-5, -$500, (-5.0u). UCONN giveth, and UCONN taketh away. Two of those we so close. That's super disappointing. But just wait until one of these hits. Then I might be slightly over $0.

TOTAL 0-10, -$1000, (-10.0u)

If this experiment was about total winnings, the Longshot Parlay Strategy would have torpedoed this entire thing. But it's not about the total of all 5 strategies, it's about which individual strategies do best. Two of them are kicking ass right now. Here's where each strategy stands after 2 weeks of this "experiment"

Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 10-0, $810, (+8.10u)

Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 9-1, $192, (+1.92u)

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorite: 9-1, $8 (+0.08u)

Strategy 3: Low Team Overs: 6-6, -$37, (-0.37u)

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 0-10, -$1000, (-10.0u)

Here are the picks for this week

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorite: 9-1, $8 (+0.08u)

Alabama @ Arkansas: Alabama (-910)

$100 to win $11

Colorado @ Arizona: Arizona (-1115)

$100 to win $9

Stanford @ Oregon: Oregon (-770)

$100 to win $13

Navy @ Air Force: Air Force (-715)

$100 to win $14

FIU @ New Mexico St: New Mexico St (-670)

$100 to win $15

Boy there's some stupid ones in there. There weren't a ton of good options in the (-600) to (-1200) range that I'm looking for. Military Academy games can always go either way. I by no means have confidence in Oregon. New Mexico St is a complete shot in the dark. I think Alabama and Arizona are locks at least (fingers crossed). I really should be doing this as a single parlay if anything. But it's too late now, we're rolling with it for the rest of the year.

Strategy 2: Move The Line Overs: 9-1, $192, (+1.92u)

Washington @ UCLA: Over 55.5 (-295)

$100 to win $34

Michigan @ Iowa: Over 34.5 (-286)

$100 to win $35

Texas Tech @ Kansas St: Over 48.5 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Texas State @ James Madison: Over 43.5 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Wake Forest @ Florida St: Over 55.5 (-305)

$100 to win $33 

We've been solid with this strategy, and I feel good about it this week. I'll take the GOAT Michael Penix to get Washington 56 points on his own. 34.5 is a hilarious total for Michigan/Iowa, that'll be ugly but I think we'll get there. I took a Texas Tech under last week that ruined a Long Shot Parlay win. I won't make that mistake again. I trust James Madison to score some points for me. And finally, I watched Wake Forest last week, they're going to go over again.

Strategy 3: Low Team Overs: 6-6, -$37, (-0.37u)

Navy @ Air Force: Navy over 10.5 (-114)

$100 to win $88

Northwestern @ Penn State: Northwestern over 13.5 (+100)

$100 to win $100

Georgia @ Missouri: Missouri over 12.5 (-125)

$100 to win $80

Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh over 13.5 (-109)

$100 to win $92

Fresno St @ UCONN: UCONN over 13.5 (-137)

$100 to win $73

There aren't nearly enough low team totals this week. These numbers are way higher than I'm comfortable with. I'm betting on UCONN to score OVER 13.5 points? That's insanity. All these games are disgusting. 

Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders: 10-0, $810, (+8.10u)

Illinois @ Wisconsin: 1Q under 9.5 (-109)

$100 to win $92

Kentucky @ Ole Miss: 1Q under 12.5 (-109)

$100 to win $92

Michigan @ Iowa: 1Q under 9.5 (-114)

$100 to win $88

West Virginia @ Texas: 1Q under 13.5 (+114)

$100 to win $114

Oklahoma @ TCU: 1Q under 14.5 (-118)

$100 to win $85

Any chance I can go 5-0 again in these? I took a mixture of games that should be high scoring, and games that should be low scoring. So far it hasn't seemed to matter. Nobody scores in the 1st quarter regardless.

__

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays: 0-10, -$1000, (-10.0u)

Parlay 1

Washington @ UCLA: Washington ML (-148) - Rolling with Penix until the magic runs out

Illinois @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin ML (-275) - Bounce back game for Wisconsin 

Kentucky @ Ole Miss: Under 54 - Ole Miss always goes under

Kentucky @ Ole Miss: Kentucky (+7) - Kentucky keeps it close, I almost went Kentucky ML

Michigan @ Iowa: Iowa (+10.5) - Iowa makes this game gross

$100 to win $1,427.56

Parlay 2

Navy @ Air Force: Navy (+14) - Military Academy game, anyone can win, I'll take the points

Oklahoma @ TCU: TCU ML (+205) - Everyone thinks Oklahoma bounces back, I think they could be dead

Iowa St @ Kansas: Iowa St ML (-152) - Sadly, the magic runs out for Kansas this weekend 

Michigan St @ Maryland: Maryland ML (-305) - Michigan St is dead, Taulia wins this one for his brother

Wake Forest @ Florida State: Wake Forest ML (+205) - Has to be a toss up right? Give me those odds

$100 to win $3,884.38

Parlay 3

Texas A&M @ Mississippi St: Texas A&M ML (+150) - Still think Miss St is a tier below A&M

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina: Over 54.5 - Trusting in UNC's offense for some reason

Cincinnati @ Tulsa: Cincinnati ML (-375) - Wanted an easier one, I think Cinci is solid

NC State @ Clemson: Clemson ML (-265) - Clemson's offense is going, their D bounces back

West Virginia @ Texas: West Virginia (+9) - Quinn Ewers is still out right?

$100 to win $1,481.72

Parlay 4

LSU @ Auburn: LSU ML (-305) - Auburn firing their coach after this one

Indiana @ Nebraska: Under 61 - Scared to touch either side, thinking it will be ugly

NC State @ Clemson: Over 43 - Again, Clemson's offense might be back, suspiciously low total, I'll take the bait

Arizona St @ UCS: Arizona St (+24.5) - PAC12 after dark, think we get a couple close games

Stanford @ Oregon: Stanford (+17) - PAC12 after dark, think we get a couple close games

$100 to win $1,679.07

Parlay 5 (hedging a couple of my other parlays)

Michigan @ Iowa: Michigan ML (-420) - Just pull out the win, as ugly as it may be

Purdue @ Minnesota: Minnesota ML (-480) - Minnesota is going to run away with the division

Alabama @ Arkansas: Alabama (-17.5) - Have to take Alabama in one of these

Bowling Green @ Akron: Bowling Green ML (-360) - Rolling with my Alma Mater, #TalonsUp #AyZiggy

Michigan St @ Maryland: Michigan St ML (+235) - Who knows maybe Michigan St still cares

$100 to win $1,148.14

This is the week we hit a parlay. I can feel it.

Weirdly, this has become one of my favorite blogs to write. I hate that I'm poor and can't bet as many games as I'd like, but I won't let it stop me from following along and pretending I'm living the life of a real gambler.