Wake Me Up When September Ends : CFB Q&A Week 5
The air is getting crisper, the shorts are being packed away, the hoodies are being brought out. It's officially football weather. The picks got back on track last week, a clean sweep. Hoping to stay hot as the September ends, and October rolls on. Here we go!
- Favorite Team Total Bet
Back to the well we go...
Air Force Team Total Over 25.5
Is this a service academy game? Yes. Is the Total 37.5? Yes. Are these teams super familiar with each other? Yes.
Do I still believe in Air Force's offense to put up points against Navy? Yes.
You saw last week what Air Force can do when fully healthy, I'll take them again healthy here to punch it in 4 times for the over. Air Force 28-7 final.
- Ole Miss / Kentucky Pick
The storyline here to me is this (other than the insanely cool helmets Ole Miss will be wearing) is what do we know about Ole Miss?
The Rebels are 4-0 but when your wins are Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Tulsa, what have we really seen? They were supposed to win those games. In fact the 1 score win vs Tulsa last week (admittedly in a look ahead spot) may actually be a bit concerning.
The thing to like about Ole Miss is their ability to run the rock. 296.7 rush yards per game. The high flying pass offenses are great, and Lane could do that with the best of them, but in terms of reliability. Running the ball is what you can always count on so I like that Ole Miss has that to carry them, especially against a respectable defense like Kentucky.
Will Levis can be electric but he's already taken 16 sacks and has thrown 4 INT's this season. Ole Miss will need to keep up the pressure to succeed in this one. I think Lane Kiffin shows up for big games, and the first big one in the Grove this season will be another one he shows up for. Ole Miss -6.5 is the pick.
- Double Digit Dog To Pull An Outright Upset
Very limited selections here so I'll float two at you if you love + signs.
The first may be a double digit dog by kickoff. It sits at +9.5 right now, but I think it could hit 10 by kickoff. The Moneyline is +265. I would look at The West Virginia Mountaineers +265 against Texas. Texas is off a crushing loss to Texas Tech and has Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout next week. A true sandwich spot. The Neers were good to me last week thrashing VT and one of the worst offenses in the country. I like JT Daniels, I like WV looking to win a marquee game against an up and down Texas team, I would take a stab on the ML here.
This is my favorite OVER of the week. So here's the bonus pick: Kent ST / Ohio OVER 65.5 (I locked in the line at 68.5, so readers now get a better number). This game is going to be a shootout. Both teams go up and down the field and both defenses will give up points. The offenses combine for 630 yards of offense per game, and the defenses allow 998 combined yards per game. If the game will be a shootout like I predict, you can never count out either team. There's a little bit of worry with this Ohio team who gave up 50+ to Fordham, but I buy there offense, and Ohio + 320 is spicy to me and would be my pick.
- Home Dog To Back ATS This Weekend
Give me Sonny Dykes and the TCU Horned Frogs +6.5. Oklahoma has owned this series of late but I like what Dykes is doing, I like Max Duggan's reliability and experience, and I'll be honest I don't know if Oklahoma is as elite as we think. The purple will be out in full force, and TCU will be in this game right down to the end. Take the points.
- Conference Future To Take A Look At
SMU +600 to win the AAC - I like the way this schedule breaks. Sunday (the game got moved via weather) @ UCF is a real test. If the Mustangs who are led by a real deal QB in Tanner Mordecai and have an unreal WR in Rashee Rice. If SMU holds off UCF, they get Cincy, Houston and Memphis all at home. The biggest threats in the conference all at home is huge. There's no divisions in the AAC so top 2 make the title game and I think SMU is worth a look to get there.
N.Illinois +550 to win the MAC - I already hold this at +850 from earlier this year, but if you haven't bet it yet take a look. Rocky Lombardi suffered a leg injury but coaches are hopefully he returns soon. The Huskies play on the weaker side of The MAC, and have a stout veteran offense and defense. They will be in this race and won the conference last year so know the path to success. Back the huskies.
Last Week : 5-1
YTD : 5-5