Tough 2-3 last week, bringing us to 6-4 on the year so far.
Gonna get back on track this week. Here are my plays for Week 3. Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens At New England Patriots +2.5 (44.5)
The public sentiment that the Patriots and Bill Belichick rarely lose home openers, as well as games in which they are a home dogs -- has nudged the spread below a field goal, which makes Baltimore inviting.
(Sidebar - I was at the Chiefs home opener a few years ago, where they got absolutely destroyed after raising a banner. Not fun.)
New England has scrounged out a measely 24 points in two outings. Baltimore's defense got blitzed like crazy in the fourth quarter last Sunday by Miami; in the previous seven quarters, it had been lights-out. Outside of that 4th quarter collapse at home vs Miami last weekend, there was one point in that game in which the Ravens were up 35-14.
The Ravens have covered in four straight following an ATS defeat. Lamar Jackson's arm and legs should deliver enough scores to fend off New England and its ailing offense.
This is still a very good football team, a team who is explosive offensively. They still have the ability to make this game a track meet and that's not the type of game the Patriots are capable of hanging in. Plus, I expect the Ravens' defense to rebound and respond this week against New England.
The play = Ravens -2.5
New England 20
- New England are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
- New England are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games when playing as the underdog.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins +6 (52)
Short week for Buffalo, and they're injury riddled. Bills cornerback Dane Jackson (neck), safety Micah Hyde (neck) and defensive tackles Jordan Phillips (hamstring) and Ed Oliver (ankle) have been ruled out.
Both of these teams have won and covered their first two games, and while Buffalo wasn’t tested in either, the Dolphins had a dramatic 42-38 win at Baltimore, aided by a 28-3 fourth quarter last week.
The Dolphins' passing game looks like it's for real. They can and will hang with Josh Allen and the Bills
This is a divisional game on the road, this line represents a clear lack of respect for what the Dolphins have done the last two weeks.
With the Dolphins having one of the better home-field advantages in the league, (due to the heat and humidity, not the crowd) this line is saying the Bills should be 7.5 or 8 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, and I just don't see it with this Miami team.
Take the points.
The play = Dolphins +6
- Miami are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
- Miami are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts +5.5 (51)
Many believe the Colts look like the worst team in the league coming off a shutout loss to the Jaguars last week, but that just means we get to buy this team at its absolute lowest point. With Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce back at practice, the Colts' receiver corps should be in a much better state this week.
The Chiefs offense absolutely rolled in Week 1 but didn't play at that same level against the Chargers, with a 99-yard pick-six contributing to the win. Maybe they can get another here with the current state of Matt Ryan (bad), but I think with the massive move off the -3 lookahead and the Colts already in desperation mode for their home opener, this game will be tighter than people expect.
It's a home underdog in a favorable spot. Given their dismal showing last week, the Colts will be a strong public fade against the Chiefs. I think Indy can and will stay in this game behind the power running of Jonathan Taylor and the outcome should fall on a low key number. Take the points.
The play = Colts +5.5
Kansas City 23
- Kansas City are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against Indianapolis.
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears -2.5 (39)
The Bears have won and covered each of their last three games as home favorites. The Texans looked terrible last week as they only put up nine points. The Bears' defense has looked decent, and fully capable of containing this Texans attack.
Because the Texans' offense has been awful as well, but the defense has kept them in games against two teams that were expected to be playoff contenders.
Even though the Bears got dominated by the Packers on Sunday night, they can build off a couple of second-half drives on which they ran the ball continuously through the Green Bay defense that knew what was coming. I think Matt Eberflus actually has a brain, as opposed to past Bears' coaches, so I think he sticks to the run and continues to try to control the games, and limit how much they need to rely on Justin Fields' arm to win games.
And speaking of Bears coaches, the Bears are 2-0 vs. former coach Lovie Smith, beating Buccaneers 21-13 in 2014 in Chicago and 26-21 in 2015 in Tampa. 1/4
The play = Bears -2.5
- Chicago are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing as the favourite.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers -7 (42.5)
First off, are the Chargers shitting me? Rest the kid. It's week 3 against Jacksonville, not the AFC championship. This is maniac shit
In addition to Herbert's status, the Chargers had six key players listed as limited or out of practice on Thursday, including elite starting center Corey Linsley. If he does play, he won't be 100% healthy.
The Chargers should also be rusty from not having those players practice much this week.
It's going to 90 degrees there today, and despite the roof, the open sides of the stadium still make it vulnerable to extreme heat. I think the Jags will handle the hot weather better than the Chargers.
Jacksonville hasn't won on the road in its past 17 games, but the Jags should be motivated today with some blood in the water and I think they keep it close.
The play = Jaguars +7
Los Angeles Chargers 27
Good luck everybody, and remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook!