A great start to the weekend going 2-0 with a play last night that I blogged on Boise St/UTEP UNDER 45.5. I mentioned earlier this week that there was a play I LOVED today in Clemson/WAKE OVER 55.5 and it flied over in the 3rd quarter. I now move to 8-2 with these blog picks. The goal here with me is quality over quantity. Continuing to fire on great spots and situations and watch the money pile up.
There's another total on the board tonight I continue to scratch my head over. Currently at Barstool Sportsbook, South Alabama and LA Tech feature a total of 58.5. This has come down a little from open, but I'm not buying it. Weather is clear with temps in the 80s all day in Mobile, Alabama.
South Alabama has been one of my favorite offenses to follow. They throw the ball a ton and play fast and deliberate. They also feature a great running back in La’Damian Webb. Through two games, Webb is averaging just under 6 yards a carry and already has five TD's and over 500 yards on the ground. I highlight that because this Jaguars team is multi dimensional, Carter Bradley can vertically attack a pretty bad LA Tech pass defense, but they can also attack a horrid run defense.
LA Tech is a disaster on the ground allowing 6.8 yards a carry, one of the worst marks in the country. South Alabama has been a very efficient and quick team too ranking fast in tempo at 16th in America in plays per game. They also convert TOUCHDOWNS in the red zone, turning 15 attempts into 11 touchdowns. They also have went over in all three games so far this season. LA Tech can't stop seemingly anyone and it looks like another long year on defense. They can't stop the run or get to the quarterback. Keep an eye on Jaguars WR, Jalen Wayne who has been really good for them through three games with almost 300 yards and three TDs on 20 catches.
La Tech has to be looking forward a bit to this game as they are off a really tough game against mighty Clemson. There was some things to be happy about though as they covered for bettors but also moved the ball. They are coached by former TCU OC Sonny Cumbie. If your familiar with Coach Cumbie he comes from the ol "Air Raid" offense. LA Tech loves to throw the ball around behind former Texas Tech QB Parker McNeil. McNeil has already thrown for six touchdowns. They have a nice group of wideouts including Smoke and Tre Harris. You also know with the Air Raid, LA Tech is gonna throw, throw, throw. The Bulldogs are third in the land in passing play percentage at almost 70 percent of the time. The problem you have there is they aren't multi dimensional, if they can't move the ball through the air, they are in trouble.
I want to highlight South Alabama here. This offense is good. They play fast and move the ball around at a high level. They put up 31 in a near win against big time UCLA. They also dropped 38 against CMU and 48 against lowly Nichols St. They are also pretty opportunistic forcing two fumbles a game so far. There's plenty of options for offense here.
I'm playing South Alabama team total OVER 35.5 on the Barstool Sportsbook.This game screams like 44-24 to me.