Tracking College Football Betting Strategies (Week 4)

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When I first decided to do this "blog series" I thought it was a pretty cool idea. Then a bunch of people told me it was stupid. But then I actually hit a bunch of my bets, so I'm happy with it again. I'm not sure if there's a single person truly following these bets, but this mostly an experiment for myself to see if I can actually make money betting college football by sticking to a strategy. I enjoyed following them the first week, so I'm going to keep it going.

Last week I started with a bankroll of "$500" for each strategy. I'll go through each of last weeks bet, and make my picks for this week as well. 

Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites 

Arkansas St @ Memphis: Memphis (-625)

WIN $16.00

Fresno St @ 7 USC: USC (-560)

WIN $18.00

20 Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech: Ole Miss (-770)

WIN $13.00

Eastern Michigan @ Arizona St: Arizona St (-1430)

LOSS $100.00

Liberty @ 19 Wake Forest: Wake Forest (-910)

WIN $11.00

Fucking Arizona St.. Herm Edwards had no idea what he was doing. He was literally fired on the field after the game.

TOTAL -$42.00 (-0.58u)

Let's see if we can recuperate those losses by going 5 for 5 this week.

Tulsa @ Ole Miss: Ole Miss (-1667)

$100 to win $6

Florida Atlantic @ Purdue: Purdue (-770)

$100 to win $13

Rice @ Houston: Houston (-910)

$100 to win $11

Fordham @ Ohio: Ohio (-1000)

$100 to win $10

Maryland @ Michigan: Michigan (-100)

$100 to win $10

Strategy #2: Move the Line Overs

Mississippi St @ LSU: Over 44.5 (-305)

WIN $33

BYU @ Oregon: Over 49 (-315)

WIN $32

Oklahoma @ Nebraska: Over 57.5 (-335)

WIN $30

Purdue @ Syracuse: Over 51.5 (-295)

WIN $34

Florida St @ Louisville: Over 48.5 (-295)

WIN $34

TOTAL $163 (+1.63u)

Holy shit those were great. They all hit comfortably. Mississippi St/LSU was the only game that was sort of close. No way I can keep this up for another week.

Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Over 41.5 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Duke @ Kansas: Over 54.5 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Bowling Green @ Mississippi State: Over 44.5 (-315)

$100 to win $32

Baylor @ Iowa State: Over 37.5 (-305)

$100 to win $33

Virginia @ Syracuse: Over 45.5 (-295)

$100 to win $34

Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs

Nevada @ Iowa : Nevada over 7.5 pts (+116)

LOSS $100

Texas St @ Baylor : Texas St over 10.5 pts (-105)

LOSS $100

UConn @ +4 Michigan : UConn over 6.5 pts (-118)

LOSS $100

Louisiana Tech @ Clemson : Louisiana Tech over 9.5 pts (-122)

WIN $82

UL-Monroe @ 2 Alabama : UL-Monroe over 6.5 pts (-112)

WIN $82

TOTAL -$136 (-1.36u)

That was rough. I predicted this would be the most fun to cheer for. It wasn't. I have never been less confident in an offense doing anything than I was watching UConn go up against Michigan's defense. I think I got some winners this week.

Bowling Green @ Mississippi St: Bowling Green over 10.5 (+112)

$100 to win $112

Vanderbilt @ Alabama: Vanderbilt over 7.5 (-106)

$100 to win $95

UConn @ NC State: UConn over 3.5 (-108)

$100 to win $93

New Mexico @ LSU: New Mexico over 6.5 (-159)

$100 to win $63

Kent St @ Georgia: Kent St over 7.5 (-107)

$100 to win $94

That UConn over 3.5 is one of the more incredible spreads I've ever seen. This bet is going to result in me watching UConn every week. What a way to ruin College Football for yourself.

Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders

22 Penn State @ Auburn : 1Q under 10.5

WIN $65

20 Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech : 1Q under 14.5

WIN $60

12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : 1Q under 13.5

WIN $90

California @ Notre Dame : 1Q under 7.5

WIN $87

Mississippi St @ LSU : 1Q under 11.5

WIN $88

TOTAL $390 (+3.90u)

Well I'll be damned. 5 for 5. I talked about in the last blog how even high scoring games start out super slow. That was certainly the case last weekend. The 1Q Under Strategy is out to a huge early lead.

USC @ Oregon St: 1Q under 14.5

$100 to win $82

James Madison @ Appalachian St: 1Q under 13.5

$100 to win $94

Florida @ Tennessee: 1Q under 13.5

$100 to win $98

South Florida @ Lousiville: 1Q under 14.5

$100 to win $55

Virginia @ Syracuse: 1Q under 12.5

$100 to win $91

Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays

Parlay 1

Florida St @ Louisville : Louisville ML (+116) - Friday game

22 Penn St @ Auburn : Penn State ML (-159)

Western Kentucky @ Indiana : Indiana ML (-278)

Purdue @ Syracuse : Syracuse (-1.5)

6 Oklahoma @ Nebraska : Nebraska (+11)

LOSS $100

Parlay 2

13 Miami @ 24 Texas A&M : Miami (+6)

Mississippi St @ LSU : Mississippi St ML (-139)

UL Monroe @ 2 Alabama : Alabama (-49.5)

Kansas @ Houston : Kansas (+9)

Vanderbilt @ Northern Illinois : Vanderbilt ML (+110)

LOSS $100

Parlay 3

12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : Oregon ML (-175)

California @ Notre Dame : California (+11)

UConn @ 4 Michigan : UConn (+48)

6 Oklahoma @ Nebraska : Oklahoma ML (-500)

1 Georgia @ South Carolina : Georgia (-25)

LOSS $100

Parlay 4

Western Kentucky @ Indiana : Western Kentucky (+6.5)

22 Penn State @ Auburn : Auburn ML (+128)

Kansas @ Houston : Houston ML (-315)

Mississippi St @ LSU : LSU ML (+112)

13 Miami @ Texas A&M : 24 Texas A&M (-6)

LOSS $100

Parlay 5

Florida St @ Louisville : Florida State ML (-143) - Friday game

12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : BYU (+3.5)

1 Georgia @ South Carolina : South Carolina (+25)

Rutgers @ Temple : Temple (+17.5)

Purdue @ Syracuse : Purdue ML (+100)

LOSS $100

TOTAL -$500

Not even close. Wasn't very fun. That the nature of bets like this, and by bets like this I mean terrible bets. But they're only terrible until they they're not. If I can somehow hit one this weekend then I'm back in the black.

Parlay 1

Duke @ Kansas: Over 63.5

Kent State @ Georgia: Georgia (-45)

Florida @ Tennessee: Florida (+10.5)

James Madison @ Appalachian St: James Madison (+7)

Indiana @ Cincinnati: Indiana (+16.5)

$100 to win $2,468.57

Parlay 2

Minnesota @ Michigan St: Michigan St ML (+128)

James Madison @ Appalachian St: James Madison ML (+205)

Maryland @ Michigan: Michigan (-17.5)

Duke @ Kansas: Kansas ML (-305)

Clemson @ Wake Forest: Clemson ML (-278)

$100 to win $2,402.47

Parlay 3

Texas @ Texas Tech: Under 61

Notre Dame @ North Carolina: Notre Dame ML (+102)

Missouri @ Auburn: Missouri (+7)

Bowling Green @ Mississippi State: Bowling Green (+31)

Baylor @ Iowa State: Baylor ML (+114)

$100 to win $2,864.93

Parlay 4

Iowa @ Rutgers: Rutgers (+8.5)

Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Arkansas ML (+106)

Arizona @ California: California ML (-167)

Oregon @ Washington State: Oregon ML (-250)

Toledo @ San Diego State: Toledo ML (-152)

$100 to win $1,424.74

Parlay 5

USC @ Oregon State: USC ML (-240)

Vanderbilt @ Alabama: Alabama (-40.5)

Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Ohio State (-19)

UConn @ NC State: NC State (-38.5)

Northern Illinois @ Kentucky: Under 54

$100 to win $1,760.14

I'm sure everyone thoroughly enjoys and cares about this series. I guess it's pretty cool I went 5-0 in the 1st Quarter Unders. I'm positive money overall is well. If only I actually had $2,500 to bet every weekend. Here's the standings after one week of betting

1st Quarter Unders: 5-0 (+3.9u), $390

Move The Line Overs: 5-0 (+1.63u), $163

Low Team Overs: 2-3 (+1.36u), $136

Giant Money Line Favorite: 4-1 (-0.58u), -$42

Long Shot Parlays: 0-5 (-5.0u), -$500