Tracking College Football Betting Strategies (Week 4)

When I first decided to do this "blog series" I thought it was a pretty cool idea. Then a bunch of people told me it was stupid. But then I actually hit a bunch of my bets, so I'm happy with it again. I'm not sure if there's a single person truly following these bets, but this mostly an experiment for myself to see if I can actually make money betting college football by sticking to a strategy. I enjoyed following them the first week, so I'm going to keep it going.
Last week I started with a bankroll of "$500" for each strategy. I'll go through each of last weeks bet, and make my picks for this week as well.
Strategy 1: Giant Money Line Favorites
Arkansas St @ Memphis: Memphis (-625)
WIN $16.00
Fresno St @ 7 USC: USC (-560)
WIN $18.00
20 Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech: Ole Miss (-770)
WIN $13.00
Eastern Michigan @ Arizona St: Arizona St (-1430)
LOSS $100.00
Liberty @ 19 Wake Forest: Wake Forest (-910)
WIN $11.00
Fucking Arizona St.. Herm Edwards had no idea what he was doing. He was literally fired on the field after the game.
TOTAL -$42.00 (-0.58u)
Let's see if we can recuperate those losses by going 5 for 5 this week.
Tulsa @ Ole Miss: Ole Miss (-1667)
$100 to win $6
Florida Atlantic @ Purdue: Purdue (-770)
$100 to win $13
Rice @ Houston: Houston (-910)
$100 to win $11
Fordham @ Ohio: Ohio (-1000)
$100 to win $10
Maryland @ Michigan: Michigan (-100)
$100 to win $10
Strategy #2: Move the Line Overs
Mississippi St @ LSU: Over 44.5 (-305)
WIN $33
BYU @ Oregon: Over 49 (-315)
WIN $32
Oklahoma @ Nebraska: Over 57.5 (-335)
WIN $30
Purdue @ Syracuse: Over 51.5 (-295)
WIN $34
Florida St @ Louisville: Over 48.5 (-295)
WIN $34
TOTAL $163 (+1.63u)
Holy shit those were great. They all hit comfortably. Mississippi St/LSU was the only game that was sort of close. No way I can keep this up for another week.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Over 41.5 (-315)
$100 to win $32
Duke @ Kansas: Over 54.5 (-315)
$100 to win $32
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State: Over 44.5 (-315)
$100 to win $32
Baylor @ Iowa State: Over 37.5 (-305)
$100 to win $33
Virginia @ Syracuse: Over 45.5 (-295)
$100 to win $34
Strategy 3: Low Team Total Overs
Nevada @ Iowa : Nevada over 7.5 pts (+116)
LOSS $100
Texas St @ Baylor : Texas St over 10.5 pts (-105)
LOSS $100
UConn @ +4 Michigan : UConn over 6.5 pts (-118)
LOSS $100
Louisiana Tech @ Clemson : Louisiana Tech over 9.5 pts (-122)
WIN $82
UL-Monroe @ 2 Alabama : UL-Monroe over 6.5 pts (-112)
WIN $82
TOTAL -$136 (-1.36u)
That was rough. I predicted this would be the most fun to cheer for. It wasn't. I have never been less confident in an offense doing anything than I was watching UConn go up against Michigan's defense. I think I got some winners this week.
Bowling Green @ Mississippi St: Bowling Green over 10.5 (+112)
$100 to win $112
Vanderbilt @ Alabama: Vanderbilt over 7.5 (-106)
$100 to win $95
UConn @ NC State: UConn over 3.5 (-108)
$100 to win $93
New Mexico @ LSU: New Mexico over 6.5 (-159)
$100 to win $63
Kent St @ Georgia: Kent St over 7.5 (-107)
$100 to win $94
That UConn over 3.5 is one of the more incredible spreads I've ever seen. This bet is going to result in me watching UConn every week. What a way to ruin College Football for yourself.
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders
22 Penn State @ Auburn : 1Q under 10.5
WIN $65
20 Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech : 1Q under 14.5
WIN $60
12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : 1Q under 13.5
WIN $90
California @ Notre Dame : 1Q under 7.5
WIN $87
Mississippi St @ LSU : 1Q under 11.5
WIN $88
TOTAL $390 (+3.90u)
Well I'll be damned. 5 for 5. I talked about in the last blog how even high scoring games start out super slow. That was certainly the case last weekend. The 1Q Under Strategy is out to a huge early lead.
USC @ Oregon St: 1Q under 14.5
$100 to win $82
James Madison @ Appalachian St: 1Q under 13.5
$100 to win $94
Florida @ Tennessee: 1Q under 13.5
$100 to win $98
South Florida @ Lousiville: 1Q under 14.5
$100 to win $55
Virginia @ Syracuse: 1Q under 12.5
$100 to win $91
Strategy 5: Long Shot Parlays
Parlay 1
Florida St @ Louisville : Louisville ML (+116) - Friday game
22 Penn St @ Auburn : Penn State ML (-159)
Western Kentucky @ Indiana : Indiana ML (-278)
Purdue @ Syracuse : Syracuse (-1.5)
6 Oklahoma @ Nebraska : Nebraska (+11)
LOSS $100
Parlay 2
13 Miami @ 24 Texas A&M : Miami (+6)
Mississippi St @ LSU : Mississippi St ML (-139)
UL Monroe @ 2 Alabama : Alabama (-49.5)
Kansas @ Houston : Kansas (+9)
Vanderbilt @ Northern Illinois : Vanderbilt ML (+110)
LOSS $100
Parlay 3
12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : Oregon ML (-175)
California @ Notre Dame : California (+11)
UConn @ 4 Michigan : UConn (+48)
6 Oklahoma @ Nebraska : Oklahoma ML (-500)
1 Georgia @ South Carolina : Georgia (-25)
LOSS $100
Parlay 4
Western Kentucky @ Indiana : Western Kentucky (+6.5)
22 Penn State @ Auburn : Auburn ML (+128)
Kansas @ Houston : Houston ML (-315)
Mississippi St @ LSU : LSU ML (+112)
13 Miami @ Texas A&M : 24 Texas A&M (-6)
LOSS $100
Parlay 5
Florida St @ Louisville : Florida State ML (-143) - Friday game
12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : BYU (+3.5)
1 Georgia @ South Carolina : South Carolina (+25)
Rutgers @ Temple : Temple (+17.5)
Purdue @ Syracuse : Purdue ML (+100)
LOSS $100
TOTAL -$500
Not even close. Wasn't very fun. That the nature of bets like this, and by bets like this I mean terrible bets. But they're only terrible until they they're not. If I can somehow hit one this weekend then I'm back in the black.
Parlay 1
Duke @ Kansas: Over 63.5
Kent State @ Georgia: Georgia (-45)
Florida @ Tennessee: Florida (+10.5)
James Madison @ Appalachian St: James Madison (+7)
Indiana @ Cincinnati: Indiana (+16.5)
$100 to win $2,468.57
Parlay 2
Minnesota @ Michigan St: Michigan St ML (+128)
James Madison @ Appalachian St: James Madison ML (+205)
Maryland @ Michigan: Michigan (-17.5)
Duke @ Kansas: Kansas ML (-305)
Clemson @ Wake Forest: Clemson ML (-278)
$100 to win $2,402.47
Parlay 3
Texas @ Texas Tech: Under 61
Notre Dame @ North Carolina: Notre Dame ML (+102)
Missouri @ Auburn: Missouri (+7)
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State: Bowling Green (+31)
Baylor @ Iowa State: Baylor ML (+114)
$100 to win $2,864.93
Parlay 4
Iowa @ Rutgers: Rutgers (+8.5)
Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Arkansas ML (+106)
Arizona @ California: California ML (-167)
Oregon @ Washington State: Oregon ML (-250)
Toledo @ San Diego State: Toledo ML (-152)
$100 to win $1,424.74
Parlay 5
USC @ Oregon State: USC ML (-240)
Vanderbilt @ Alabama: Alabama (-40.5)
Wisconsin @ Ohio State: Ohio State (-19)
UConn @ NC State: NC State (-38.5)
Northern Illinois @ Kentucky: Under 54
$100 to win $1,760.14
I'm sure everyone thoroughly enjoys and cares about this series. I guess it's pretty cool I went 5-0 in the 1st Quarter Unders. I'm positive money overall is well. If only I actually had $2,500 to bet every weekend. Here's the standings after one week of betting
1st Quarter Unders: 5-0 (+3.9u), $390
Move The Line Overs: 5-0 (+1.63u), $163
Low Team Overs: 2-3 (+1.36u), $136
Giant Money Line Favorite: 4-1 (-0.58u), -$42
Long Shot Parlays: 0-5 (-5.0u), -$500