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A College Football Pick I Like So Much, I Already Bet It For Saturday

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Back this week for Week 4 in college football as most teams head into conference play. Currently my best bet blogs are at 6-2, a very nice start, let's keep it going. 

I'll be honest, I was blown away at a few lines early this week, most notably one in the ACC. Currently at Barstool Sportsbook, Wake Forest is a 8 point home dog against against Clemson. The total is 55. I played it there. I think the total should be higher 50's then mid 50's. So I see value.

I have talked openly before about how good Wake Forests offense actually is. They are a 40 point per game group on offense seemingly every game. They are balanced, have a great QB and skill position players and this new defense under new DC Brad Lambert is getting a bit better. However, there are still major concerns on defense. Last weeks shootout with Liberty was a bit concerning. They also allowed Vanderbilt to move the ball pretty consistently. allowing the Dores to put up 25. This rushing defense has not been good quite honestly allowing over 4 yards per carry to Vandy, VMI and Liberty. Now you get Will Shipley and Clemson coming in. Shipley is off his best game at Clemson, running for 139 and two touchdowns against LA Tech. Clemson has scored 35 points or more in each game this year. This offense looks fresher, and quicker moving running about 78 plays per game, about 8 plays a game faster than in 2021. That 78 number is fast from a tempo standpoint putting them at 25th nationally.  DJ Uiagalelei is getting there as well as a signal caller. His QBR is rising, his INT's are low and he's looking more comfortable in this system that as I said is a bit quicker. He has also has some pretty damn good wideouts to throw to also which helps. 

Wake will move the ball, it's just what they do. Sam Hartman is among the best pure passers in the country and has a stable of terrific players to throw the ball to. Through three games, Wake is scoring 41 points a game and is 20th in America in passing yards per game. They absolutely will be tested this week against a really good secondary, but that didn't matter last season. In 2021, Clemson's bad offense and all put up 48 on Wake and Wake still managed 27 points and Hartman threw for over 300 yards. You actually have to go back to 2017 which is the last time Clemson didn't score 37 or more points against Wake. Last few vs the Deacs:

2018: Clemson scored 63

2019: Clemson scored 52

2020: Clemson scored 37

2021: Clemson scored 48

They just seem to have the tonic to handle this poor Wake defense. Do I think Clemson's defense is great, absolutely. In the end though Wake is a top 20 offense in America. They are at home here and to me the line feels a bit high. This line above a TD tells me Wake has a real shot to win this game outright. The atmosphere in Winston Salem should be fun for this one. I think this total is just too low. To win this game, Wake is gonna have to do what they do, pass the football. And as stated above, Clemson should be able to move the ball effectively. I think we see a higher scoring game for Clemson standards. I'll say 38-31. OVER 55 is my selection here.