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Week 1 NFL - 5 Bets I Can Feel In My Plums

Last season I went 50-54, including the playoffs. 

Not exactly great, but at least I didn't lose a down payment on a house like some of the other people around here who shall not be named. 

But that's the beauty of a brand new season. A clean slate! We're all going to go 1.000 this season. You gotta feel it in your plums.

Here's who I'm rolling with today on the Barstool Sportsbook.

Baltimore Ravens -7 At New York Jets

I can see the Ravens getting right to work early on Sunday against the Jets and jumping out to a quick lead. 

The Jets, playing from behind, is not a situation you want to find yourself on the side of as a bettor. Especially against a black hole like Baltimore. 

The Ravens cover this one with 35, maybe even 28 points. Can you see Flacco marching for 4 TD drives? No fucking chance.

The guy's lost 7 straight and is facing a coach who knows everything about him down to the brand of underwear he wears.

Also, the Jets have lost 12 straight games in September and are 1-11 ATS in that span. 

New York also saw a severe lack of meaningful points/play in the preseason, while Baltimore took it incredibly seriously and usually starts the season in successful form because of it. 

Lamar Jackson torched the Jets for 5 TD's the last time he faced them. Look for him to have another big day today.

The last time a Ravens QB bet on himself going into a contract year, Joe Flacco led Baltimore to a Super Bowl win and cashed in huge. Today, Joe Flacco starts for the Jets against his former team the Ravens, and Lamar Jackson. If that's not football beauty I don't know what is.

  • Baltimore are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against NY Jets.
  • Baltimore are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets.

The Play = Baltimore -7

Ravens 35
Jets 19

New England Patriots At Miami Dolphins -3.5

Bill Belichick loves to remind people (the media) that "you don't know who your team is until October." Meaning pre-season is a joke, and the first month of the regular season sees everybody still ironing out all the kinks and finding their identity.

Well, thank God for that if your a Patriots fan. Because, despite the kool-aid Father Jerry Thornton would love us all to drink, this team is coming into this season in shambles. And it's going to be a rough month.

The Patriots offense looks like a mess, with O-line issues and coaching questions to answer following the loss of Josh McDaniels.The Matt Patricia experiment will end in disaster (mark my words) and you can't help but feel for Mac Jones dealing with this coming off such an impressive rookie campaign.

These two teams are rated close to even by the market heading into the season, but I don't think they're even close. 

The Dolphins made some big additions on offense to help protect Tua Tagovailoa and give him an elite weapon to feature in the passing game in Tyreek Hill. New coach Mike McDaniel should open up this offense and make things much easier on Tua, and the long-term ATS history of coaches in Week 1 is favorable for a Dolphins cover.

Plus, New England NEVER plays well in Miami.

  • New England are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Miami.
  • New England are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami.

The Play = Miami -3.5

Patriots 20
Dolphins 24

Las Vegas Raiders At Los Angeles Chargers -3.5

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This is going to be a wild game and Sofi Stadium will be packed with Raiders fans. It will be like a home game for them. 

But it won't matter.

Less than two weeks ago the Raiders had only two of their offensive line spots solidified. They've been scouring the waiver wire and working out FA's all week down to the wire. That is not the situation you want to find yourself in as you prepare for battle against Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, Kyle Van Noy, and the rest of the San Diego defense.

While the Raiders have their own pair of edge-rushing stars in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, I trust the Chargers' offensive line much more. They have good continuity and added the best guard in the draft, Zion Johnson, at No. 17 overall. 

The Raiders made a big splash adding Davante Adams, but the Chargers returned every key weapon. 

And don't get me wrong, I love this newly revamped Raiders offense this year. Derek Carr getting his college teammate Davante Adams back added to an arsenal with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow is as dangerous as it gets for defenses. But the Raiders line is just too big of a question mark in this one and I see Carr running for his life all day and not having time to find any of those weapons. 

This one has also been circled on Justin Herbert's calendar for the past 6 months (after the brutal week 18 OT loss to Vegas that cost them a wildcard spot), so expect him to light it the fuck up.

The Play = Chargers -3.5

Raiders 24
Chargers 34

Green Bay Packers At Minnesota Vikings +1.5

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Today's contest sees Green Bay coming into Minnesota to face a new look Vikings team. 

I think Minnesota will be one of the league's most improved teams this season under new coach Kevin O'Connell, who I think will unlock the elite talent on this offense- Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, Irv Smith and Dalvin Cook. (Ridiculous names)

Their total win o/u is 9.5 which means this should be a playoff team. In a division where they can beat up on the Bears and Lions twice a piece, and with a significantly less dangerous Packers team, they should win the Central.

The Packers lost their offensive coach and one of the best receivers in all of football. Now Aaron Rodgers has to rely on Sammy Watkins. 

Minnesota will throw more on early downs and be more aggressive throughout this one. While the Packers' defense is still top-notch, Green Bay's offense could struggle without Adams. Now it also looks like Allen Lazard (foot) will miss Week 1.

The Packers will also be without LT David Bakhtiari (knee), and RT Elgton Jenkins (pectoral/knee). 

Za'Darius Smith has circled this game, saying the Packers ignored him after he got hurt last year. He and Danielle Hunter are healthy. That should make it an uncomfortable afternoon for Aaron Rodgers.

Last season, the Vikings beat the Packers 34-31 at home in overtime. The Packers were sleepwalking last season in Week 1, losing to the Saints 38-3. 

  • Green Bay are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Minnesota.

The play = Minnesota +1.5

Green Bay 21
Minnesota 24

New York Giants At Tennessee Titans -5.5

The Giants head to Nashville to start the 2022 season against the Titans and I'm laying the points here with Tennessee.

This offseason was not a great one for Mike Vrabel's crew after how the season ended with their playoff loss to Cincinnati. 

It's gone surprisingly well for the Giants who come into week 1 relatively healthy for the first time in eons. Getting to see a healthy Saquon Barkley would excite bettors in most cases but this is the Titans defense he's going up against today. One of the best run defenses in the business.

Last season they were 2nd in the NFL in Rushing yards against, 4th in YPC against, 7th in 3rd down defense (opponents converted only 37%), and 2nd in Time of Possession.

New York has a new coaching staff, while the Titans have the better head coach, better QB, better RB, much better defense and aren't learning a new system like New York. 

Relying on Daniel Jones and staff to take care of business on the road isn't in the cards for me.

Also, the Giants are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five season openers to boot. Four of those five losses were by double-digit points.

  • NY Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Tennessee.
  • NY Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

The play = Tennessee -5.5

NYG 18
Tennesee 26

Good luck, everybody. Bet Responsibly!

LET THE BOY WATCH

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