NCAAF Week 2 Mailbag: Answering Your Betting Questions
Week 2 is here in college football. I personally had a very solid opening week with my blog post picks going 3-1, missing out very closely on a perfect 4-0, but I'll take it. I will return tomorrow with some of my breakdowns for a very interesting Week 2. I thought this week I'd open it up and hear from some of you and answer some of your Twitter questions on the card this week. Get the opinions flowing and involving some of you. Let's do it.
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One of the most interesting games and lines of the week. This line has plummeted and went from 11.5 to now 8 on the Barstool Sportsbook. Nearly 90 percent of the bets are coming in on USC, but 52 percent of the actual money bet is on Stanford. I astutely played +10 with Stanford and I'll be honest, I like it anything at 7.5 or above.
First things first, this line is a standard pros/joes game. Joes aka squares will back USC. Sharps have piled in on the Cardinal. USC is good, in fact they are unstoppable on the surface offensively. They have Lincoln Riley… How are they only -8? That's precisely why I'd go the other way. Also throw in the fact the Cardinal have a solid QB in Tanner McKee, a very good coach in David Shaw and an improving defense. Stanford will keep the ball on the ground and try to keep it out of the hands of the big time SC offense. We all know in the end, USC like the old Oklahoma defenses that Riley had were never good. Also keep in mind at Oklahoma, Riley was 5-12 ATS as a road favorite. Divisional conference game on the road, laying basically double digits. Yeah I'd fade personally. Stanford hangs around IMO.
Make sure you check out the Barstool College Football Show LIVE from Iowa City this Saturday morning. As far as the games concerned… yikes. Iowa State is in rebuild mode and Iowa is Iowa. The Hawkeyes are the same team yearly and for them it works. In this series it works for sure as Iowa has beaten Iowa St SIX STRAIGHT TIMES. The truth is, Iowa is a much better team on paper and after their performance last week, this line is too low. I'd put it more like six personally. Iowa as usual is strong on defense, dominates in the trenches and have a good secondary. This is a Cyclones team that's a shell of who they were last season after losing 8 defensive starters, their QB, running back and top TE. To me this is like 20-10 type of game.
Well… I don't really know but I'll give you one that has some potential to me. Hawaii.. Mich… just kidding. I think Georgia St could beat UNC.
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This UNC defense is just bad allowing 87 points over the first two weeks. They've been bad for years and they have a freshman QB going on the road for a second consecutive week after a wild game last week. Georgia St was pummeled last season by UNC 59-17 and obviously that will be on their minds as well. They also will keep the ball on the ground behind one of the most underrated rushing attacks in America. Going from a strong defense to facing a soft Swiss cheese defense is also helpful for a QB who struggled last week, lets just be honest. Georgia St was actually pretty solid against the run last year and I think have ability in the secondary. I really don't truly know, but I think the Panthers have some potential here. Line opened 9.5 but is down to 7.5.
I've said it before and I will say it again, I really like Tennessee this year. I love their offense, how they play fast and that they are balanced with stars everywhere behind a really good QB. The main issue I have though is I don't truly trust their defense. Remember this is a team that gave up 29 points a game and the secondary was 122nd in passing yards allowed per game. Luckily as I said last week, they wouldn't be affected by Ball St QB John Paddock.
This week, I think they are affected and get beat up. Slovis is the real deal and a totally different arm than the one they just faced. I was also disappointed in Week 1 with how underwhelming Pitt looked on defense also. Hendon Hooker is just flat out better than JT Daniels… this game screams high scoring to me. Should be a fun back and forth battle with Tennessee prevailing. Remember also the Vols ran 87 plays in Week 1. Pitt will play quicker also. As far as Kentucky/Florida, I don't have much interest. I'm not high on Kentucky. I like Florida and played them last week.
The question is how long did they party a big win for the future of this program> Seems like a 3 point game to me, but I won't be on it.
No I don't. Betting against Alabama is not something I really ever do. But I felt like this line was too high. Say what you want but Texas offensively is as talented as anyone in the country. Ewers is a gamer and has the opportunity at home in the biggest game in awhile in Austin to show out and duel with the best. I think he's up for it and I know guys like Bijan Robinson, Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington will be up for it too.
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Alabama also doesn't embark on this type of non conference trip much. This is the first time since 2011 they are on the highway against a non conference team. They usually play Mercer or Georgia Southern at home this week. Texas also hasn't been this big an underdog at home since 1975, when Gerald Ford was President.
On the field, these teams aren't 20 points different to me, they just aren't and no bettor seems to want Texas, and this line hasn't moved much. Texas is one of the few teams that won't be completely beat athletically. They have plenty of kids that can match up and least hang here. We will know a lot if this line moves to 21 or goes down. I think Texas hangs around and gets mid 20's and lose like 38-24