The Patriots Offense Has Struggled in Joint Practices with the Raiders. EVERYBODY PANIC!
John Locher. Shutterstock Images.The other day I was having beers with my golf foursome after the lightning warning sirens canceled our other, superior plans. While I was tempted to take my chances that a thunderbolt strike from Zeus' mighty hand might give me superpowers, the 19th hole is a good pivot every time it's tried, and this was no exception.
After a round or two the subject came around, as it inevitably does, to the current state of the Patriots. Specifically, we went around the table predicting what kind of start they're going to have to the season. And we all had them at 2-2 or 1-3 in September. Due to a lot of factors, not the least of which is opening up with three of four on the road, including Miami, which they've saved for some of their worst performances over the years, and Green Bay, which is a contender. Personally I have them at 2-2 for the simple fact that .500 is how they've started off so many seasons in the 2000s, including some of their championships. As I pointed out, they were 2-2 during the legendary Trent Dilfer "They're just not good anymore!" moment in 2014. As were the Colts and Packers. Seattle started 3-3. And those were your Final Four that season. The 2003 and 2018 champs were 2-2 out of the gate as well. It's less than ideal, but good teams often take time to get going.
But on this spin around the table, the concerns go beyond schedules and history lessons, back around to the number one topic of this offseason: The new offense and the new men in charge of it. Each of whom have been struggling. As I've said before, the closer they've gotten to simulating game conditions, the worse they've looked. So 11-on-11s have been worse than 7-on-7s. Full pads have been worse than helmets and shells. And the starters have looked worse against opposing starters than the twos and threes have looked against their opposite twos and threes.
Giphy Images.Against Carolina Friday night, it took them a couple of series to put anything resembling a productive drive together. Sparked by a 45-yard dead balls accurate Mac Jones pass to Nelson Agholor, and ended with a Ty Montgomery rushing touchdown.
That slow start before figuring it out is a pattern that has continued in joint practices in Las Vegas. Tuesday, according to everyone who was there, was as bad as they've looked all offseason. Negative plays. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson finding no opening to run through and getting stuffed. The Pats relying on checkdowns with defenders flying to the ball to hold them to limited gains. Until finally they put something together on the final possession, a two minute drill. That Boston Sports Journal (paywall) described as:
1st and 10: Nice little completion to Hunter Henry for about 8 yards.
2nd and 2: Uh oh, some pressure and Mac Jones is nearly picked off by old friend Duron Harmon.
3rd and 2: Little 5-yard out to Jakobi Meyers to move the sticks.
1st and 10: Sack by Chandler Jones. Here we go again.
2nd and 10: Completion to Parker at the sideline for about 12 yards.
1st and 10: Completion to Jonnu Smith down to the 2-yard line,
Clock
2nd and goal: Jones hits Kendrick Bourne on a crossing route for a touchdown. He celebrates with a big leap and spike.
After that, David Andrews, who has been visibly frustrated at times during camp and at least once called an offense-only team meeting on the field, said that last drive was something they can build on. Which they did today. And it turned out to be a sinkhole:
Sacks, runs to nowhere, incompletions, bubble screens to your slot guy, passes to your 3rd down back in the flat. That's the description of what you run with a fifth round rookie under center playing with the guys who won't make the roster. Something to just get his feet under him and get him used to game conditions. And not the way you build a professional offense around second year Pro Bowler you've surrounded with expensive free agent targets.
But again, the pattern continues as they did improve as they went along:
And that is where we are right now. This new attack (if I can call it that right now, ironically) is the Platonic Ideal of the term "A Work in Progress." You might have believed that by now, all the bugs would have been patched by the IT guys. But to think that would be pathetically naive. (I still respect you, though.) The first year Charlie Weis installed the system Bill Belichick just scrapped was 2000. The Pats finished 25th in a 31-team league in points with Drew Bledsoe at QB. The next season, they were sixth, with Tom Brady. And the Super Bowl champions. It's more than learning a new language; It's learning to think in a new language. Meaning, to make it your primary language after speaking a different tongue your whole life. This calls for different reads, different responsibilities, different calls, all expressed with different nomenclature. And 11 people at a time (somewhere around two dozen in total), have to be fluent for it to work. That takes time.
By no means am I suggesting Belichick built this for next year or that Matt Patricia is about to preside over the 25th best offense in the league. That is unthinkable. What I am saying is it's not essential that everyone be speaking this like it's their native tongue at the moment. Like I find myself saying every September, under the current NFL rules limiting workouts, the first month of the season is an extension of training camp. It certainly is with this franchise, as I already pointed out about the previous slow starts.
If I can make a close analogy, the 2017 Patriots defense didn't just start out the season bad, they were historically bad. In the first four weeks they were giving up an average of 324 passing yards a game. And didn't hold an opponent to under 290 yards until Week 7, despite the fact they'd just added Stephon Gilmore. Who, by the way, looked utterly lost.
That unit finished Top 5 in the league and took them to a Super Bowl.
Complex, precision-engineered machines take a lot of care and maintenance before they run smooth. They need to be worked on by Germans in lab coats, not the guy standing in the pit at JiffyLube. They're that complicated, because when they are fine tuned and road tested, they outperform every other make and model. That's the intent here. Belichick is being patient the same way he's always been in the past. Because he can afford to be, and because he knows his patience will be rewarded.
If the Pats still can't generate a sustained offense and consistently put points on the board by, say, Week 5. That will be the time for a DEFCON 1 level panic. For now, we're still at DEFCON 4 (I never understood why they count backwards like that; it's like good news from your doctor being "negative" and bad news being "positive"). At MOST. In a few weeks, when we're seeing more drives end like that catch in the end zone by Jakobi Meyers, we'll either realize this learning curve was all part of the plan, or more likely, we'll forget any of this ever happened.
