Fantasy Football Factory is BACK and we're doing a positional preview every Tuesday for the next few weeks. This week, we dove into Quarterbacks. We ranked them on the show, but here are how I see them stacking up.
*Note: The below rankings are based on 4-point passing Touchdowns. For all 6-point passing TD leagues, you'd want to downgrade all rush-heavy QBs like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, & Marcus Mariota.
25) Marcus Mariota - Atlanta Falcons
Mariota only threw two passes last year but the former #2 overall pick has a lot of potential. He started for the Titans from 2015 - 2019 and endured a lot of ups and downs in his career. He got a shot with the Raiders in 2020 and in one game, went 17/28 for 226 yards with 1 passing TD/1 INT, 88 rushing yards, and 1 rushing TD. That's about 26 fantasy points which is stellar for one game. Will he revive his career and finally live up to his Draft status? I'm not betting on it, but his rushing value makes him a must for Top 25.
24) Matt Ryan - Indianapolis Colts
Ryan threw for 3,968 passing yards 20 TDs and 12 INTs for the Atlanta Falcons. Former Colts QB Carson Wentz, who is #23 on my list threw for 3,563 passing yards with 27 TDs and 7 INTs. I would expect somewhere in the middle for the noodle armed Ryan. That'd net you about 3,750 passing yards 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Not bad and a low end QB2 in SuperFlex leagues is very realistic.
23) Carson Wentz - Washington Commanders
Wentz has some sneaky value as a low end QB2 after putting up those numbers I just mentioned with the Colts. If he can come close to replicating those that's perfectly playable in 2QB leagues.
22) Mac Jones - New England Patriots
The only rookie other than Trevor Lawrence to start the full 17 games, Jones was impressive in his first year throwing for 3,801 yards to go with 22 TDs and 13 INTs. He is no threat on the ground mustering only 129 yards rushing all year, but he has taken big leaps according to Pats coaches going into Year 2. The Patriots are a ground and pound team, so I worry about week-to-week fantasy consistency, but he is a safe bet to start the whole year and finish with better numbers than last year.
21) Justin Fields - Chicago Bears
Fields only started 10 games as a rookie and put up fairly inconsistent numbers with 1,870 passing yards 7 TDs to 10 INTs through the air to go with 420 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs. If he can take a small leap and average 200 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 1 INT and 50 rushing yards per game, that's 15 fantasy points right there. That's a great floor for your QB2. But will he be able to take that step?
20) Zach Wilson - New York Jets
Wilson started 13 games in his first year in the league throwing for 2,334 yards with 9 passing TDs and 11 INTs. He also ran for 185 yards and 4 rushing TDs. But what excites me is the growth he showed after missing a few games mid-season. He finished the year with a 5:2 passing TD:INT ratio and tucked it 2-4 times in each of his final seven games. He also scored all of his rushing TDs in those games, so the arrow is pointing up and I'm buying Wilson going into Year 2.
19) Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
It is shit or get off the pot time for Tua and the Dolphins as he's been fine at best in his two years with Miami. It doesn't help that All-World talent Justin Herbert was selected the pick after him. But the Dolphins went all-in upgrading the talent around him, trading for Tyreek Hill this past off-season. Will it finally turn into results? If you draft him in a 2QB league, be sure to get a QB3 as he's likely to miss a few games.
18) Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year should almost be thrown out completely with Lawrence as Urban Meyer did his rookie signal caller no favors. He finished with 3,641 passing yards 12 TDs and 17 INTs. But the pleasant surprise was his rushing yards which 334 rushing yards, which is a 21 yard per game average. That'll make up for an INT a game and all reports are Lawrence also looks so much better this year with a real coaching staff. Betting on his upside here.
17) Daniel Jones - New York Giants
Jones has been downright awful in both real football and fantasy football. With 21 TDs:17 INTs over the past TWO YEARS, he should not be fantasy relevant in 2022. BUT, I can't shake his rookie year with 24 TDs:12 INTs and his rushing ability. The fact that he has an offensive guru in Brian Daboll, who helped turn Josh Allen around at Head Coach gives me reason to think Jones could recapture that form.
16) Jameis Winston - New Orleans Saints
Fun fact - I'm actually higher on Saints QB Jameis Winston than Mintzy this year! Winston will throw a lot of INTs, but in fantasy, they're not game killers like in real life football. The last time he started a full season he finished as QB3 in 4-point passing TD leagues. The Saints upgraded at WR bringing Jarvis Landry and drafted Chris Olave in the 1st round. Jameis is a king maker for WRs, just don't expect them to consistently win games.
15) Derek Carr - Las Vegas Raiders
Talk about upgrading talent, the Raiders swung a deal for Carr's college buddy this off-season. That guy happens to be one of the best Receivers in the NFL in Davante Adams. Carr now has Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller to throw the ball too. He should see an increase in his numbers from last year which saw him finish as QB14 in 4-point passing TD leagues. He could easily make the jump into low QB1 territory this season.
14) Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers
The most mysterious man in the NFL, nobody knows what to make of Trey Lance! In three games he played real snaps, he scored 24, 15, & 19 fantasy points. 19 points per game out of a QB is low-end QB1 territory and would net him as QB8 vs. 2021 numbers. I think he's a great QB2 in the mid-rounds. Just thinking if he can throw 1 passing TD and throw for 150 yards per game, that's 10 fantasy points and he hasn't even used his legs. Very realistic for him to be a top 5 fantasy QB next year.
13) Kirk Cousins - Minnesota Vikings
Cousins finished the year with 4,221 passing yards 33 TDs and 7 INTs which was good enough to finish as fantasy's QB11 in 2021. That was all for a Coach who apparently hated him. Cousins represents sneaky low-end QB1 value and will likely be available late.
12) Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
I have Kyler lower than some others. He finished 2021 as QB10 but he'll also be without DeAndre Hopkins for six games due to a suspension. They also lost his #2 WR in Christian Kirk to the Jags this off-season. To compensate, they brought in his old buddy Hollywood Brown who should flourish early without Hopkins.
11) Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles
This is a tough one as he finished last year as QB9 in 4-point passing TD leagues and the talent around him got upgraded with the addition of a bonafide #1 WR in A.J. Brown. That coupled with another year in the system should equal an improvement, right? The Eagles made a concerted effort to limit his passing attempts and run the football more, which resulted in more team wins. But once that change was made, Hurts was inconsistent. In his final eight games, he only threw passing TDs in four of them. And you'd think that'd counterbalance with more scores on the ground, but he only scored rushing TDs in two of those eight games. That inconsistency can't put him in my top 10 moving into this year, despite the addition of his buddy A.J. Brown.
10) Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers
The reigning MVP finished as QB5 last year in 4-point passing TD leagues, but he's never been a volume yardage guy. In fact, he's never in his career reached 4,500 yards. With Davante Adams now in the silver and black, the Packers receiving corps is rather bare. Allen Lazard as the team's WR1? Yuck! Randall Cobb feels like he's 48 and Christian Watson is a promising rookie, but is an unknown commodity at the pro level. All these things move him down a bit as he won't give you much from a rushing perspective, so you're just relying on a high amount of TDs and low amount of INTs. That combined with low passing yardage leave him on the lower end of fantasy QB1s for me.
9) Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
Speaking of guys who don't offer much on the ground, Super Bowl Champion Matthew Stafford finished just behind Rodgers as fantasy's QB6 in 4-point passing TD leagues. He did so only running for 43 yards which was just over half of Tom Brady's rushing output! But Stafford is a reliable option in the yardage category, checking just shy of 5,000 yards last year in addition to 41 TDs. While Odell Beckham Jr. seems unlikely to return, the Allen Robinson reclamation project has hope and shouldn't offer a major drop-off at LA's WR2. I look for him to have another strong season.
8) Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals
I like Burrow as a QB1 in fantasy. Not as much as Mintzy, who has him as QB5, but I still like him. His connection with Ja'Marr Chase is undeniable and he will bail him out in the clutch often. He finished last year as fantasy's QB8 with 4,611 passing yards and 34 TDs to only 10 INTs. He didn't offer much on the ground with just 118 rushing yards which was only three more rushing yards than Kirk Cousins had. Tee Higgins is a popular mid-round WR candidate so if he continues to emerge that'll help out Burrow. But I like him to be in that same neighborhood, maybe 4,800 yards with 36ish TDs and ~13 INTs. That's a fine QB1 in fantasy.
7) Russell Wilson - Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson changed scenery this off-season, trading in the pacific northwest for the rocky mountains. He had a rough year last year after injuring his finger that forced him to miss three games. He also ran it far less last year, only 43 times for 183 yards which was 330 yards from the year before. That is concerning, but he's been so steady at QB outside of last season posting four straight seasons in between 31-40 passing TDs and rushing between 342-586 rushing yards. I'm counting on a bounceback to numbers in that neighborhood which should be good for a top seven finish at his position.
6) Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes was a tough one to rank, but there are a lot of variables at play. He lost his top WR in Tyreek Hill and there is an influx of new guys at the position who are not close to Hill. Marquez Valdez-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster have had nice games, JuJu even a really good year, but they cannot replace The Cheetah. Mahomes will always cost a premium based on his brand name, but he finished last season as QB4 in 4-point passing TD leagues behind Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Tom Brady. I think there could be a bit of a learning curve with his new guys and I'm not willing to wait a month or two for him to get right, so I have him outside my top five.
5) Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens
Lamar is due for a bounceback after rushing for just 2 TDs last year. He carried the ball a lot around the goalline, but didn't see them convert into TDs. Also, I love the fact that he's in a contract year. I'm not banking on him being back to MVP form, but I do think he'll be a dangerous fantasy QB and with all the designed runs the Ravens use for him, his floor is usually very safe.
4) Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys
I'm maybe irrationally high on Dak this year. With Ezekiel Elliott beginning to fade, I just think they'll have to pass a lot more. Amari Cooper is gone, but I am very high on CeeDee Lamb this year and I think Dak will have a bigger year than last year where he threw for 4,449 37 TDs and 10 INTs.
3) Tom Brady - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you're in a 6-point passing TD league, he's a no doubt QB3 and I wouldn't even be mad if you took him higher. In two seasons with the Bucs he's thrown for 40+ TDs in both years. Last year he also threw for a career-high 5,316 passing yards and finished just 0.03 fantasy points behind Justin Herbert for fantasy's QB2 in 4-point passing TD leagues.
2) Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert was also a 5,000+ yard passer last year while adding 38 TDs to just 15 INTs. But he also added in 302 rushing yards and 3 scores on the ground. The offense is perfectly tailored around his skill set and the fact that Chargers HC Brandon Staley is almost reckless with going for it on 4th down is awesome for Herbert fantasy managers. I debated putting him at QB1, but his playoff schedule could be tough: Week 15: vs. Titans, Week 16: @ Colts, Week 17: vs. Rams. That could be tough sledding in your fantasy playoffs, but his talent is too good to pass up as a QB1 if you can nab him.
1) Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills
The reigning QB1 for the past two seasons in 4-point passing TD leagues, Allen offers such a diverse skill set of running and throwing. Not only did he throw for 36 passing TDs to just 15 INTs, but he punched it in 6 times on the ground to go along with a whopping 763 rushing yards. That was just four rushing yards fewer than Lamar Jackson and 21 rushing yards fewer than Jalen Hurts. Add that to his cannon for an arm with a terrific receiving corps, and I'm liking his chances to 3peat as fantasy's QB1.
Here is all is in one digestible graphic.