The Chicago Blackhawks We Knew And Loved Are Dead: The State Of The Organization Blog
We are officially into a new era. It has been sad. It has been agonizing, frustrating, and disappointing. The Blackhawks will officially go the entirety of the Toews-Kane matching 8 year and $10.5M AAV contracts without winning a playoff series. It's pathetic how bad things have gotten here in Chicago in such a short order. This is a new regime though. It is as if the Blackhawks golden era was on life support. Treatments here, bad diagnosis there, radical experimental medicines, with suffering all along the way. It is like Kyle Davidson is that dutiful spouse that looks at their sickly, barely conscious partner, leans over and whispers "you don't need to hold on anymore. It's okay for you to go" and then with the Debrincat trade...he pulled the plug.
If the Debrincat trade was the death, seeing Toews and Kane leave will officially be the funeral. A tearful goodbye with intense grief while remembering the good times. I don't know if and when those moves will happen...but they will happen. Time is undefeated and Patrick Kane has nothing left to prove here. The only thing for him to achieve would be to go down as the all-time leading scorer with the Blackhawks, but he might look at the roster and decide that is impossible if his center is Tyler Johnson and his left winger is Mike Hardman. He might then decide a better goal would be to chase the all-time American scoring record which he needs about 200 points to achieve. Only he can decide what he wants.
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I know people are IRATE about the Debrincat trade. Like I said in the blog last week...I am extremely underwhelmed with the return. I was expecting something at least in line with what they got for Hagel, but hoped for more. That didn't happen. I don't think the Davidson regime would trade him for the sake of trading him. This isn't a Korchinski and Paul Ludwinski for Debrincat trade. I assume the thinking is that this is a Korchinski, Ludwinski, and Connor Bedard for Debrincat trade. Which you could criticize with perfect utility as playing for an inside straight because of the NHL Draft Lottery system. This is about what your goals are. If your goal is to simply make the playoffs, then by all means you keep Debrincat. If your goal is to win the Cup then you need to trade Debrincat, use those future assets to sink you down to the bottom of the pool and then push off the bottom towards the surface with Bedard/Fantilli. and when you finally do grassp for air at the top some is their to fill your gullet with champagne.
Debrincat is a VERY good player. An all-star. A guy who realistically has a chance at the hall of fame if he keeps this scoring pace up. You could build a competitive team around Debrincat, Jones, and an aging Kane that can get you to the playoffs. I believe that. I actually believe that a few tweaks to last year's group, starting with a better coach, could've pushed you towards that wild card spot. I wouldn't fault anyone reaching for the playoffs and enjoying that. If you want to be a fan of a team like that all you have to do is take I-90/94 for about 6 hours and you'll be a Minnesota Wild fan. If you want to pursue something greater, well, then you need to land Bedard or Fantilli and usher in a new era. I'm choosing to let go. I am choosing to aim upwards instead of aiming to the Northwest and be a Minnesota Wild fan.
You could say "well if the team picks 4-6 overall next year and they don't get that franchise altering player than this was all for not". That is definitely an inherent risk to this plan. If that does happen, where do the Blackhawks end up? Well...more than likely they end up with a core good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to compete at the highest level. And...if that is the case...well you ended up essentially where you were on a path WITH Debrincat. At least with this plan you give yourself a chance at being great. The times have changed. I used to say that I would be fine with the final years of 19&88 be marked with early playoff exits and good regular season hockey. That just isn't an option anymore as they enter the final year of their contracts. And while I was willing to do it for 19 and 88...I am not willing to sacrifice long term grand ambitions for short-term mediocrity in the name of Alex Debrincat. That is harsh because I LOVE Debrincat. He gets the absolute most out of his ability. He deserves to wear the A here not because of his production, but because of his work ethic. Having said that, he doesn't have his name on the Cup and therefore he doesn't have the same level of consideration as Toews and Kane. Trading Debrincat, as painful as it maybe and as underwhelming as the return looks right now, gives the organization a chance to push off the bottom and get new names on the Cup. That is what I want to pursue at this point.
With that...your questions
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Dane Murphy is a STUD. He knows how to apply analytics to a sport that doesn't lend itself naturally towards analytics the way baseball does and used them to plug players into situations that get the most out of their ability. I would LOVE to connect Dane Murphy to Davidson or Greenberg because I think they could learn from each other. The Hawks have yet to ask.
I think the easy answer here is Auston Matthews and I say that genuinely. Auston Matthews deal is up at the end of 2024. He will be somehow only be 26 at that time. IF Kane does decide to stay, could you sell Matthews on playing with Kane, Jones, Bedard/Fantilli, and all these other young players the Hawks are bringing in? Could that scenario and $12M AAV be enough to get him to Chicago? Not sure, but the Hawks will have money and hopefully exciting young players knocking on the door.
I won't cry, but I will be very upset. I didn't mention Michkov by name above because I wouldn't touch Russian players at this juncture. Michkov has a contract that runs for a long time so he wouldn't even be available for several years under normal circumstances. Circumstances with Russia are hardly normal right now. Current NHL players are having a hard time getting out. Kaprizov could be in trouble and has a contract now. The only two guys that I desperately want for the 2023 draft are Bedard, obviously, and Fantilli
Honestly…probably not. If Kane is still here then the answer is yes. He is a truly special athlete and they don't come around very often. Kane could still deliver some highly entertaining moments in a 5-1 loss. We've seen him do that for years now. If he's gone then no. This isn't even like the 2006-07 season where there some signs of life and good young players like Keith, Sharp, Seabrook, Byfuglien, and Bolland to watch. I am not even sure they'll bother to have Reichel up full time just to see him get dominated by the other team's best players and do nothing except for start to doubt himself. It's Seth Jones playing by himself and if that is the case, you can watch from home like me and bitch on twitter.
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The Hawks chose not to qualify Strome and Kubalik. They're also walking away from Borgstrom. Kubalik and Borgstrom aren't winning players. I've grown to dislike both of them. We should've known that Borgstrom sucked when Quenneville wanted nothing to do with him in Florida and Stan ran around waving the trade like Neville Chamberlain's peace treaty. Those guys stink, in my opinion.
Strome is different…I like Strome's game. I like Strome's character more. He is a guy that game in with warts on his game and worked hard to fix them. He has become good on draws. He is a weapon in the offensive zone. He is better away from the puck than when he came over from AZ. Good player with a future. That future just isn't here. Davidson wants a certain style of player through the middle that is built on speed. That isn't Strome.
Strome also helps you win because he will usually find ways to get the puck in the back of the net. The team doesn't want to do that. I don't think they wanted Strome here with the hope that they could trade him at the deadline because they probably couldn't. They tried to trade Strome for over a year and there wasn't really a market for him, allegedly. If there wasn't a market for him when he was basically a point per game guy playing with Patrick Kane and Debrincat then how would there be a market for him at the deadline after a year of less production on a worse team without high level players around him? There wouldn't be.
Better for Strome to find himself a home now as a UFA and better for the team to move towards their ultimate goal of being the worst team in hockey this year.
TBD, but can't be worse than the last regime.
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Yes, I think there are three arguments for keeping him
1) You sell some tickets
2) His game will age well. He is so smart, takes such good care of his body, never gets hit, and is hyper hyper skilled. I could see him playing at a top 6 level until he's in his late 30s. So in theory when the team was good again he would be an important piece of the puzzle.
3) Similar to my point above with Matthews…Kane would still be helpful in recruiting free agents to Chicago who want to play with Kane. He gives the organization a level of credibility.
It's possible, I suppose. It's also possible that he would tear his ACL or something and then they'd get nothing for him. Trading when they did also, in theory, accelerated the rebuilding process by a year because Korchinski, etc are closer to the NHL than whoever they draft in 2023 or 2024 because they're older.
I think it will be a mix of both.
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Honestly…no. The team is going to stink. I love Seth Jones, but he's going to struggle with this group next year. He's probably more pissed than Kane about everything that went down. If it's not Kane and Jones then there is nobody. Like I said…not convinced we'll see a ton of Reichel at the NHL level next year. A full year of Tyler Johnson, Kurashev, and like McKenzie Entwhistle leading the charge next year.
So…with that let's talk about the guys they drafted over the weekend. I'll be honest…I don't know dick about any of them. I won't sit here and pretend to be some prospect guru. I'm not. I do, however, have people in scouting, NCAA, USHL, and other leagues that I trust.
Korchinski…everyone seems to be high on this pick. Prototypical modern defenseman with size, skating, and skill. Like most young d with those attributes people have questions about his own end. Sounds like he has the tools to become very good defensively and also has the desire to do so because he's competitive. Got better, by all accounts, as the year went along. I am confident when I say he will be a top 4 dman on a good team.
Frank Nazar…my USHL contact said "home run". When you flip on highlights of this kid he is a walking breakaway. Absolute BURNER through the neutral zone. Also like Gaborik or Schmaltz in a way where he is just so much faster blue line to blue line than everyone on the ice. The difference between Schmaltz and Nazar is that Nazar is relentless and fearless. He will play through the middle, he will make good decisions under pressure, high character, plays all situations. He will be a very good player here in my opinion.
Sam Rinzel…of the people I talk to Rinzel is the most polarizing. Another USHL contact said that he was a bit of a liability in the playoffs for Waterloo. Could that be because he transitioned from MNHS hockey to a much more competitive league mid way through the year? Possibly. His ability and tools is undeniable. Some say he's the best pure skater in the draft and he does that at 6'4 and 185lbs. That is at 18 as a bit of a late bloomer. He will play a full season in the USHL next year and head to University of Minnesota for the 2023-24 season. If you listen to the Hawks he sounds like Pietrangelo. If you listen to some doubters he sounds more like Cam Barker. If you have three first round picks I think you can swing for the fences on one and I think that Rinzel was that pick.
Paul Ludwinski … A kid who can skate and said that he has "the best motor in the draft". I like a kid who brags about his work ethic as long as he backs it up. Ludwinski is going to sell a lot of jerseys in this town with a Polish last name, a motor, and a guy who isn't afraid to mix it up.
Ryan Greene…from a contact "Ryan Greene is just scratching the surface. That is one of the Hawks better picks. He just plays on a shit team (Green Bay Gamblers). He's very skilled and very good".
My people also had good things to say about Dominic James and Aiden Thompson
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I mix in the saying that "it's always darkest before it's completely black". Well…we are into the black now. I am going to watch probably 90% of the games this coming year and I will likely hate every second of it. I am not a "tank" guy and if you've read my blogs on this website then you know that. This is simply the reality of the situation though. Years and years and ineptitude, arrogance, and lack of direction got us to this moment. A pathetic way to end a great run for a proud franchise. That is what happens when nobody is truly minding the store and there isn't an organization mission statement or masthead. Now…I am not convinced that the organization as a whole is heading the right direction, but if Davidson does his job well then the entire organization looks good. A good plan by Neil Smith and Dale Tallon allowed Stan and McDonough to look not only smart, but also look like good people for a decade. I hope that the organization as a whole has a good approach and hockey ops is allowed to do their jobs unfettered. We'll see how it plays out when the sun of a new day peaks up over the horizon. Until then…settle in for a long haul of pain and misery.