ESPN's BPI Prediction Of Who Wins The Finals Is The Biggest And Most Obvious Trap I've Ever Seen
I'm sorry.....what? What did I just read? Maybe you've never heard of ESPN's Basketball Power Index before, and according to their website, this is what it is
ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, days of rest, game location and preseason expectations.
OK cool, good for them. Let me be perfectly clear about something. This is a trap.
I promise you, we do not need to make the Warriors out to be some scrappy underdog who shocked the world by making it to the NBA Finals where they are now facing this powerhouse Celtics dynasty. That 86/14% split is legitimately one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen, and this is coming from someone who mainlines Celtics Kool Aid. Just look at all the different factors based on that description
Game by Game efficiency
Does that mean shooting splits? Because the Warriors in these playoffs have 49/37% splits compared to 45/36% for the Celts
Strength of Schedule
OK, I guess you could make the case the Celts have had the tougher playoff path so far. Fine.
Pace
The Warriors play at a 98.44 pace, the Celts play at a 95.92 pace. Are they saying a slower pace is better? Says who? We just saw the Celts win Game 7 in Miami because they played with a much faster pace.
Days of Rest
This is the first time since May 4th that the Celts have not been playing every other day. The Warriors have been resting since their win over the Mavs on May 26th. Now more rest is bad? Is ESPN suggesting the Warriors should have lost on purpose to have their series with the Mavs go longer?
Game Location
Last time I checked, the Warriors have homecourt advantage. The first two are in the Bay. That seems….significant over the course of a 7 game series
Preseason Expectations
If you were to ask literally anyone other than like me and 10 other people in the preseason which of these two teams were more likely to make the NBA Finals, 99% of the responses are going to be Golden State. The Celts were coming off a weird covid year where they got bounced in the first round, and the Warriors entered the year finally fully healthy after 2 injury plagued seasons.
So while I acknowledge that I am not a math guy and certainly would not declare myself an analytics expert, you can see when you look at all this supposed criteria for this ESPN BPI, that this 86/14% split makes no goddamn sense. Does part of me love it? Sure. I'd rather be the 86% than the 14%, but what are we doing here? I know a reverse jinx when it's staring me in the face, and I'll be honest, I don't love it.
Not only that, but there's also Vegas to consider. They certainly do not think the Warriors are some sort of massive underdog, so why are we trying to make that narrative happen? The Warriors don't need the help in my opinion. Betting money, expert picks, media polls, all have the Warriors taking this series. We learned long ago that ESPN cannot be trusted because all they do is lie, so I officially reject this tweet on behalf of Celtics fans everywhere. To me, this just seems like a way to potentially slander the Celts if they somehow lose the Finals and I do not care for that one bit. Consider this tweet rebuked. This is the sort of thing you have to take care of right away, sort of like when I had to rebuke that Charles Barkley prediction when he picked the Celts over the Nets. Sure he ended up being right, but that's because I rebuked his initial take. Chuck is the kiss of death, everyone knows it.
Same shit here. ESPN is the kiss of death. You spend years and years slobbing the knob of the Warriors and Steph Curry, don't stop now. They are the golden boy franchise of this era. They are not underdogs. Stop trying to make that happen.
