It Goes Without Saying That Tonight's Game 4 Is About As Massive As It Gets If The Celtics Want To Keep Their Season Alive
Issac Baldizon. Getty Images.
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I don't want to be overly dramatic here, but tonight is easily the biggest Celts game of my life. I know how silly that sounds but that's what is currently in my heart so I dunno what to tell ya. This is what happens when you throw away a golden opportunity to take control of the series because you refuse to stop turning the ball over in Game 3. Everything was right there for the taking, and the Celts refused to grab it. They once again chose the more difficult path which is both extremely frustrating and really not all that surprising. Shit like this is what they've done for as long as I can remember. There are few things this team loves more than making life harder on themselves. It'd be one thing if they just didn't have the talent to hang in a series, but that is most certainly not the case here. But when you play stupid basketball, you find yourself backed into a corner more often than not.
There are a few ways to approach tonight as a fan. The positive way would be the fact that this team has been here multiple times in this postseason, including this very series. This is a team that has lost back to back games just once since mid January. In the postseason, no matter how painful the previous loss was and what it then meant for the series, they always found a way to punch back. Having that familiarity with this type of pressure can help, and even though they blew Game 3, being at home for this game, in theory, should help as well as long as this team executes.
The other way to look at this is the idea that sooner or later, this team is going to lose 2 games in a row. In the NBA Playoffs, if you continue to play with your food it's only a matter of time before you get burned. When you blow opportunities, usually that works out in a negative fashion. One more bad start to a game could very well mean their season. For a team that has an issue with starting games tight, especially when it comes to shooting the ball at home, that's a legit concern. Then you factor in all the injury issues surrounding Rob and Smart and the fact that the Heat smell blood and it's fair to be nervous about how this all shakes out.
I'm a firm believer in speaking things into existence and putting that positive energy into the universe, so let's start here
For the Celtics to have anything close to resembling a chance tonight, they need Jayson Tatum to actually show up and play. Another night of some below par defense and mostly cardio work offensively will not cut it. History tells us he'll respond, so I'm choosing to ride with that. At the same time, they need to figure out their current PJ Tucker problem
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I respect the shit out of Tucker in terms of what he can do as an on ball defender, even at his age. He is most certainly not afraid and he's going to be physical with you all night long. It's what he does. At the same time, this is a matchup Tatum needs to figure out. He's too talented to be put in jail like this.
A huge part of solving that issue and the more glaring issue (turnovers) comes down to one simple adjustment. Make quicker decisions. It's not all that different from what we saw in the MIL series, and while it's a little confusing that it is once again happening, it's correctable. When we see the players on this team pass the ball around the perimeter and take their time before doing something, they are letting the defense off the hook. More often than not the possessions end with Jaylen or Tatum or Smart having to drive to the rim with a low shot clock, and because there isn't much movement offensively, the Heat are able to build a crowd in the paint. We saw it time and time again in a lot of the brutal turnovers the Jays had.
It starts with stop driving into crowds. The Heat are too good with strips/tie ups/having active hands to continue to keep driving into traffic. I don't know if the Celts are playing more for the whistle or something, but it's not working
Either take the floater or keep the rock moving. There was plenty of time on the shot clock in that situation. The Heat have proven that they can defend drives with crowds and not foul.
Plays like this are frustrating because I don't mind the aggressiveness, but there's no situational awareness. Jaylen was unable to beat his primary defender, and he kept going…..to Bam's side. Bam was in the paint that entire possession, there is not a lane on that side of the floor. The second Oladipo pokes it away, that needs to be a pass to the corner.
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This is another example where you don't mind the aggressiveness, but it's another brutal example of a lack of situational awareness. Jaylen gets the ball here and makes the quick decision to attack 2.5 Heat defenders. Essentially, he wanted to drive into traffic when this play was right there for the making
They got a prayer with Tucker then turning it over, but then Smart gave the ball right back and the lead went up to 12. That's a pretty big swing given the moment.
It goes back to the idea of the Celt continuing to make life harder on themselves. Just make the simple play. Ball security is now the most important thing the Celts need to address if they want to keep their season alive, and continuing to drive into traffic is not going to help. Not making quick decisions and having possessions with multiple passes is not going to make things easier. You have to make the Heat rotate and actually play defense the same way you needed to do it against the Bucks. In the games they didn't, both teams have forced a ton of TOs and then scored even more points off those TOs.
Obviously limiting the unforced turnovers where we saw this team just flat out pass the ball to a stationary Heat defender goes without saying. Passing with purpose could not be more important. But the Celts also have to do a much better job of not self sabotaging and playing in traffic when they don't have to.
Defensively, if you limit the Heat's points off turnovers that will go a long way in keeping their overall point total down. Of their 109 points a night, 20 of them are coming off turnovers in this series. In the halfcourt, I think it's fair to expect another healthy dose of Bam P&R. Maybe Rob plays tonight, maybe he doesn't. As of this blog we have no idea. What I do know is that they need to make an adjustment there no matter who the big is. Whether it's Al, or Rob or Grant or Theis, Bam as a screener is going to be a big time part of the Heat's offense in Game 4. Why wouldn't it be? He screened the most he had all series in Game 3 and had his best game. Until the Celts can prove they can stop it, there's no reason to stop doing it.
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I mean, that's some of the worst P&R defense I've ever seen. It looked exactly like the shit we had to live through in the bubble series. They need to find a way to limit Bam from getting these running starts on his roll. Weakside rotations are super important, especially if that guy is matched up with a non shooter. I can understand not wanting to leave someone like Strus, but I also know what can happen if you let Bam get comfortable as a screen and roller.
It also goes without saying that the Celts are going to have to win the energy battle. Not just 50/50 balls, but on the glass as well. How many times did we see them play great defense, only to then give up an OREB or lose a 50/50 loose ball and then the Heat hit a back breaking shot. That's an energy thing. The basketball finds energy, and when you are the one who establishes that energy, the breaks tend to go your way. That is NOT how the Celts came out in Game 3 and it's what helped dig themselves that early hole.
I can understand being nervous about what might happen tonight. I haven't slept in 2 days. Reliving how the Celts have now thrown away 2 games in this series makes me physically sick. But this team is resilient. They more often than not correct their mistakes. Heading to MIA 2-2 is all that matters right now. They've shown the ability to win on the road these entire playoffs so I believe they can do it again. But none of that will matter if they don't take care of their own shit at home. 1-3 with 2 of the next 3 in MIA isn't exactly a reality you want to face. As frustrating as things may be right now, this team is not dead. Far from it.
That's why tonight is so massive. They choked away their advantage and now their season depends on them responding like we all know they are capable of. We're at the point where we might not know which version of the Celts are going to show up on any given night, but if it's the version we've seen be in similar spots this postseason, they'll be fine. Just play normal. Don't lose quarters by 20+ points. Don't turn the ball over a billion times. Just get an average game from Tatum and that's probably enough.
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If they don't, it's going to be the 2020 bubble series all over again and nobody wants to see that.