The Most Predictable Thing In The World Is People Forgetting The Entire Season And Handing UNC The Title Now That Caleb Love Is Back
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This happens basically every year yet we go through the same process all the time. UNC made a surprise run in the NCAA Tournament, returns 90% of people and immediately everyone has them preseason top-2. Rinse, repeat. Shit, remember UCLA last year? I sure do. It was the easiest thing to predict. A team who made a run to the Final Four, had a guy in Johnny Juzang who took over March, was top-3 in the preseason.
They were never a top-5 team in the country. UCLA was good, no doubt. But they were way more No. 9-15 throughout the year. That's not a bad thing. Just a logical thing. UNC is going to have the same problem this year with one little caveat. They were slightly better than UCLA longer. UNC basically got hot the last the last 2.5 weeks of the season, mostly thanks to beating Duke in the last game of the season. Remember UNC lost to Pitt by 9 at home in February. Pitt fucking sucks and that might be a compliment.
UNC also lost to Virginia Tech in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament by 13. Again, it's not like they were world beaters and everyone saw this run coming. It's credit to Hubert Davis and the team for winning games in March and mostly adapting to playing just 6 guys, especially once Dawson Garcia left the team. It was more Brady Manek and clearing the lane for Bacot.
But that was also part of the run. Caleb Love played out of his mind. Armando Bacot won March. Those two guys are back - similar to Johnny Juzang and Jamie Jaquez from UCLA. Yes players returning is good obviously. Yes UNC is going to be fine. But this was still an 8 seed that lost to Miami by 28, Wake by 22, Duke by 20, Pitt by 9 and Virginia Tech by 13 all after January 15 too.
It's why the NCAA Tournament is the best and dumbest thing in sports. We judge everything on one game scenarios in March. It's a complete overreaction and not looking at a complete picture. I get it, but it's why it's dumb when people *only* talk about the NCAA Tournament. You want analytics? Fine. Even KenPom says they are basically the same. UCLA finished the 2020-21 season 13th, UNC finished this past season 16th. Again, I think UNC was slightly better but the comparison is easy to make.
I love that UNC is bringing people back. I want all college basketball players like this to return because it's good for the sport. At some point we'll all learn to stop completely overreacting to surprise runs though. UNC should be a top-15 team for the majority if not all of next season. They'll be a Final Four favorite early on. But we've seen this story before.