NBA Play-In Tournament Day 2 Betting Preview: Hornets Hope To Sting Hawks, Pop's Spurs In Peril At NOLA
Kevin C. Cox. Getty Images.It was a bizarre start to the NBA Play-In Tournament last night, but you can't say it wasn't entertaining. The four teams in action tonight as part of the Nine-Ten Game twin bill would be even more exciting if not for a few key injuries.
Seriously, if Zion Williamson were playing for the Pelicans, if John Collins could suit up for Atlanta, and if Hornets star Gordon Hayward wasn't banged up again, this shit would be LIT. Even as it stands, we've got some compelling matchups on tap, so let's dig into it and use some of the betting lines and props as deeper context!
Charlotte eyes redemption as all the pressure falls on Atlanta
No. 9 Hawks vs. No. 10 Hornets, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
In last year's play-in matchup with Indiana, the Hornets got rolled 144-117, and unfortunately, they're still allergic to defense like they were in that contest. However, Charlotte definitely improved and is a dangerous offensive squad, ranking fourth in points per game. On any given night, this young bunch can run any team out of the gym.
The question is, will Wednesday's visitors lock in enough on D to advance? Little evidence has been presented to suggest so, yet it's worth bearing in mind that the Hawks (-5.5) are on the precipice of MASSIVE disappointment. One year removed from running all the way to the Conference Finals, Atlanta could be out of the postseason entirely with a loss this evening.
Among teams who've played at least 20 games as road underdogs in 2021-22, Charlotte (+170) has the third-best SU winning clip (41.9%), with a 13-18 mark that trails only Memphis and Denver.
These offenses should be amazing to watch, especially when it comes to the lead guards in Atlanta's Trae Young (OU 32.5 points) and Hornets prodigy LaMelo Ball (OU 23.5 points). Both players are in great form coming in, with Young averaging 29 points and 11 assists on 48.7% shooting over his last 10, and Ball shooting 47% with averages of 23-6-9 and nearly two steals a night in that span.
Young and Ball have shot only 37.7% and 35.3% respectively in head-to-head matchups this season, though. March 16 was the last meeting. Charlotte prevailed 116-106 as Young scored only nine points. Doubtful that big of a dud will happen again, especially in Atlanta in a playoff-like atmosphere.
One more trend: The Hawks (-5.5) are 7-1 ATS in their last eight when favored.
San Antonio seeks something to build on against heavily favored Pelicans
No. 9 Pelicans vs. No. 10 Spurs, 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Ever since New Orleans traded for CJ McCollum (OU 36.5 pts+assists), it's been a game-changer for the franchise. A star trio of McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Zion when he's healthy is appealing as hell on paper, but regarding tonight, the combo of the former two alone should be enough to overcome the Spurs.
McCollum has shot 49.3% and averaged 24.3 points and 5.8 assists in 26 games since arriving from Portland. Between his emergence out of Damian Lillard's shadow, Ingram's somewhat recent return from an injury hiatus, and the first-team all-rookie form shown by lockdown defender Herb Jones, New Orleans has some serious pieces.
Over the last 15 games, the Pelicans (-5.5) rank first in offensive rebounding percentage. Overall, they're in the top six in free throw rate, whereas San Antonio (+170) is DFL in that category. So the Spurs don't have many guys who get to the foul line with regularity. They're bottom-five in percentage of offense scored from 3-point shots, so there's no elite perimeter shooting to offset that innate disadvantage from the charity stripe.
The more you look at the data, the more you just have to tip your cap to Gregg Popovich, who, by the way, went 3-1 against New Orleans this year. San Antonio could've easily tanked its way into better draft lottery odds. Nope. That ain't how Pop rolls. This subpar roster scrounged out a 34-48 record in the West and is a couple upsets away from the postseason.
On the other hand, there's a reason the Spurs are on the brink of missing the playoffs for the third year in a row. They've been slow to adapt to the modern game, and that sort of innate competitive pride has prevented them from landing elite draft talent. Free agents haven't exactly been rushing to sign up to go there either.
Sorry but who scares you on this Spurs team other than Dejounte Murray (OU 41.5 pts, rebs, assists)? Jonas Valanciunas, Jaxson Hayes and Willy Hernangomez basically offset any edge Jakob Poeltl would otherwise provide in the frontcourt. Keldon Johnson is a strong young player, but he's not going to take over a game and beat you.
Maybe this one stays close out of that trademark Coach Pop Pride. It's just hard to envision a scenario in which San Antonio pulls this one out given the talent disparity and the spark McCollum has provided for the hosts. Plus, Willie Green did one of the best coaching jobs in the NBA for the Pels following a 1-12 start, so he's not the typical outmatched Popovich counterpart.
The Under (224.5 at -110) seems like the side of the total to err on, too, because if the Spurs can't get to the line, and the pace drags, it should be a lower-scoring affair. San Antonio is 8-4 vs. the Under of late, and the Pelicans hit the Under at the NBA's second-highest rate (58.5%).
One more trend: New Orleans (-5.5) is 10-4-1 ATS as a home favorite, which ranks second in the NBA.
NBA Plays of the Day: Hornets-Hawks Under 235.5 (-110) and Brandon Ingram Over 5.5 assists (-134)
Speaking of Unders, it's hit in four of Atlanta's last five games, and I suspect the Hawks will try to slow the pace down tonight and make the uptempo Hornets play to their speed. The total in Wednesday's opener is just so much higher, so it feels like a slightly safer play. Charlotte is inexperienced as a group and is liable to be mistake prone, while the Hawks are bound to come out a little tight given how far from grace they're in danger of falling from if they lose. In the three of the four Hornets-Hawks regular-season duels, the final score totals were 220, 204, and 222.
As for Ingram's assist number, the odds are obviously a little skewed toward the Over, as they should be. San Antonio doesn't really have anyone who can mess with him when he's running the show. McCollum's versatility to be a lead guard and a lethal off-ball threat makes me think the Pels will attack the Spurs with Ingram as more of a ball-handler than usual. In nine of his last 11 games playing with McCollum, Ingram has hit 6+ assists.
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