North Carolina vs. Kansas Betting Preview: Odds Imply UNC Letdown Against Heavily Favored Jayhawks

Tom Pennington. Getty Images.

Well, this is it. The college basketball season will end Monday night with either Kansas or North Carolina crowned as national champions in New Orleans. UNC just met its biggest rival for the first time in the postseason, and crushed Duke's dreams of sending Coach K off into retirement with a national title in an 81-77 victory. Kansas had far less trouble in steamrolling Villanova 81-65 in the other Final Four contest.

Just from a pure personnel standpoint, this Kansas-UNC duel is a fascinating showdown. The Jayhawks boast superior depth, but the Tar Heels' starting five is a fantastic group who's just been lights-out in terms of clutch shooting throughout the NCAA tournament.

Alright, let's get into it.

No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Kansas, 9:20 p.m. ET on TBS

Neutral sites have been kind to Kansas

In 11 games at neutral venues this season, the Jayhawks (-215) are 11-1 SU. Entering the Big Dance, North Carolina (+4.5) had only covered one of five in those games. Obviously, UNC's run through March Madness changed that, but there's something to be said about Kansas' consistency when the location of the game doesn't factor in as much. 

Also: National championship favorites are 11-6 ATS of late.

The House Money Corollary favors North Carolina

While Kansas has been an excellent front-runner and faced a gauntlet of the toughest opposing defenses by adjusted efficiency throughout the season, all the pressure once again falls on the Jayhawks to get the job done here. They've had the easier time advancing through the past two rounds, are a better than 2-to-1 shot to win this one outright, and Bill Self is seeking his second national championship since taking over in Lawrence in 2003-04. Self would be only the 16th men's coach ever to win multiple titles.

Few could've seen this run coming from UNC, an eighth seed who knocked out the previous national champion Baylor and thrived when they weren't favored against Duke. The Tar Heels have covered their last five as underdogs. New head coach Hubert Davis just took over this season for the legendary Roy Williams — who was Self's predecessor at Kansas — and is embracing that role.

"I love emotion," Davis said, per USA TODAY. "I felt like at the beginning of the year consistently we weren't playing with emotion. And then that changed. It doesn't guarantee wins, but it does put yourself in a position to maybe do something special. That's what these kids are doing right now."

Whatever heartstrings he's tugging on, Davis is already on the brink of a natty in Year 1. That's crazy. Even making the Sweet 16 as a No. 8 seed is a decent feat, but North Carolina just keeps thriving on anyone who doubts them.

Wilson due for a scoring windfall

To his credit, Jayhawks forward Jalen Wilson (OU 11.5 points) has found ways to impact the game even as he's struggled to put the ball in the basket over the past four contests. Wilson is the team's third-leading scorer, so his shooting in the mid-30% range lately is a surprise. However, Kansas has been able to overcome that, Wilson is still posting 10+ rebounds with ease, and he's even had eight assists over the last two wins.

David McCormack has picked up the slack up front by scoring 15 against Miami and 25 vs. Villanova. The strength and athleticism Wilson and McCormack have inside should give Carolina's bigs some headaches.

Bacot must avoid the bench

Tar Heels star Armando Bacot (OU 14.5 points) is a force in the paint and an elite rebounder, so Kansas' Wilson and McCormack will have their work cut out keeping him off the glass. The huge key for UNC is for Bacot to stay out of foul trouble — and to stay on the court in general, because he's dealing with an ankle injury from Saturday. He picked up five fouls in the Duke game, which to be fair, was called really tight. Officials will hopefully let everyone play tonight, but Bacot just needs to be cautious as he faces a tough matchup down low.

Jayhawks hold the defensive edge

Not only does Kansas' depth work in its favor in terms of fresher legs, but the team is just better overall on defense than the Tar Heels are. They're 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency to North Carolina's 39th-rated group, and the Tar Heels rank DFL among Power Six programs in forced turnover percentage (13.7%). They only produced four giveaways from Duke and seven off of Saint Peter's in the past two games.

Backcourts loom large as Love, Davis hope for hot night

Almost half — 6.6 of 13.4 on average — of Caleb Love's (OU 16.5 points) shot attempts are from 3-point range, which is a good thing because he shoots 36.8% from deep and only 37.8% overall. Love is a streaky shooter, and his fellow guard R.J. Davis (OU 14.5) has been a straight-up roller coaster during the Big Dance. Davis shot 10% vs. Marquette, 27.3% vs. UCLA and 18.2% vs. Saint Peter's. He also netted 30 against Baylor and 18 in the Duke game.

On the Jayhawks' side, they have an outstanding senior in Remy Martin, who's come on down the stretch to be a huge boon to Kansas' title hopes. Point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. (OU 3.5 assists) is more focused on defense and distribution, Christian Braun is a plus-sized, sharpshooting guard who's steadily scored in double figures, and the favorites' No. 1 threat Ochai Agbaji (OU 16.5 points) has fired on all cylinders in his last two games after a sluggish start to the tourney. UNC's Leaky Black will likely draw Agbaji most of the time on defense, which should be a great face-off to watch.

Manek The Menace

Perhaps the biggest X-factor in UNC's lineup and the game overall is super senior Brady Manek (OU 16.5 points). The Oklahoma transfer has been phenomenal for the Tar Heels during their tournament run, averaging 20 points on 54.8% shooting, including 47.5% from beyond the arc on 40 such attempts. Manek's role as a stretch 4 can create space for Love and Wilson to drive, and gives Bacot room to operate from the lower block. Manek can also bang around inside and finish at the rim when need be. Whether he can be physical enough on defense is another matter.

National Championship Play of the Day: Over 152

If you had to bet the spread, Kansas is likely to be the public's choice, if only because of Bacot's injury situation. Instead of going that route, because I don't feel good about going against UNC given how great they've been recently, let's ride that Over! 

Both of these teams love to play a fast-paced style. Even though you'd expect the tempo to slow up a bit due to how high-stakes tonight's game is, neither team is bound to completely change their identity just because of that. Provided neither team has an off shooting night, there should be enough possessions

North Carolina is 7-2 vs. the Over (-109) in games against top-25 opponents during the 2021-22 campaign. Hubert Davis' squad isn't afraid to get into a track meet against some of the elite offenses in the country. And if your'e feeling extra bold, you can go bet the alternate Over 153.5 in Barstool Sportsbook's exclusives section and score some great merch if it hits!

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