If The Celtics Want To Beat The Sixers Tonight, Jayson Tatum Has To Solve His Matisse Thybulle Problem

Omar Rawlings. Getty Images.

Big one today folks. No other way to say it. Honestly, that's pretty much the case whenever you look at the NBA calendar and see the Celts are playing the Sixers. Doesn't matter if it happens in December, January, or February. Tonight will be the series finale between these two teams and despite only being at the All Star break, there is no shortage of importance for everyone involved. For starters, there's the standings

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Things are pretty tight! Just a 2 game lead as we enter tonight's game. The Sixers have MIL and the Celts have DET before we go on pause for the break. There's a chance things are even closer by mid week. Then there's the H2H matchup. Celts can either guarantee a season series split or the Sixers can officially win the head to head matchup. Why is this important? Tie breakers, my friends. Let's say we get to the Spring and the Sixers and Celtics somehow have the same record. Here is the tie breaker order

1. H2H record

2. Division winner

3. Higher division winning %

4. Higher winning percentage in the East

5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in East

6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in the West

7. Higher point differential.

Go down the list. Sixers currently own the H2H record, Celts are higher in division winning % but trail for the division lead by 2 games. Celts have the better record in the East, Celts have the higher point differential etc. The H2H record could very well be the deciding factor and completely change someone's playoff path. So yeah, this might just be a random came in February, but it has a pretty substantial amount of juice to it. The Sixers are without James Harden tonight which is obviously a factor, but what did we have to always hear during the Celts injury struggles? The best ability is availability. Everyone deals with injuries, no excuses. 

So, if the Celts want to continue to ride their insane wave of momentum and get their winning streak to an NBA leading 9 games, it's pretty obvious what has to happen. I would argue it's the biggest factor in tonight's game. 

Jayson Tatum has to solve his current Matisse Thybulle problem.

Now, don't get sensitive here as a Celts fan after you just read that sentence. You should know by now that this blog is a place where truth and reason reign supreme. Let's take it to the matchup data

GM1 vs Thybulle: 31 possessions / 10 points / 4-7 shooting / Cs win

GM2 vs Thybulle: 30 possessions / 6 points / 1-5 shooting / Cs lose

GM3 vs Thybulle: 24 possessions / 0 points / 0-3 shooting / Cs lose

In total, we've seen Tatum vs Thybulle on 85 possessions and Tatum has just 16 points on 5-15 shooting. Let's be consistent here. If we saw those numbers with someone like Marcus Smart vs Player X, we would all say the same thing. Marcus has that man in jail serving a life sentence. I don't think it's a stretch to say that through 3 games, Thybulle has put Tatum in jail for the most part. The one game he didn't, the Celts won. That feels connected no? 

Overall against the Sixers, Tatum is averaging 21/12/4 on just 41/27% splits. He has 15 TOs in 3 games. So now let's look at what has and hasn't worked and what I think Tatum should do to adjust tonight. First and foremost, he has to go north to south. Thybulle is a fantastic East/West defender. You aren't going to shake him. When we've seen both Tatum/Brown have success against Thybulle, they attack him and don't waste time dribbling or going side to side. That was pretty clear in the first meeting 

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Where Tatum usually finds himself getting into trouble against Thybulle is when he settles for his side step jumper or three. We know Tatum loves to set up his drives by dribbling a bunch, and that's just not going to work against Thybulle. Tatum needs to make quick and aggressive decisions whenever that matchup presents itself. What makes Thybulle such a pesky defender is his ability to recover and challenge jumpshots. He's got insane length and great timing. Seeing as how Tatum can at times get jumpshot happy, he has to be conscious of that tonight. When you think you beat him with an initial move and then don't keep attacking the rim, chances are he's going to block the jumper on his recovery. 

What I expect to see a bunch tonight is a high ball screen from Rob/Al to help free up Tatum. What I hope he does is after getting that high screen is continue to the basket rather than settle for stuff like this

It's not that this is a bad shot, or a shot that Tatum can't make. I just think when it comes to the Sixers, you just have to remember who you are playing and how they score. You need to have as many high percentage looks as you can get, because once they get to the other end that ball is going to Embiid in the post and they are going to score. Sorry, they just are. Where we see this team get into trouble playing Philly is when they trade inefficient jump shots for easy high percentage looks for Embiid. You look up and suddenly you're down 8 in just a few possession and things can get dicey. 

Here's another example of what I'm talking about. Tatum get a high ball screen and instead of going with force to the rim and making Thybulle defend without fouling, he settles for the much lower percentage fadeaway

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Here it was again, this time out of the post

This is not how you attack Matisse Thybulle. If anything, you're playing into his strengths as a defender. What I'll be interested to see is how the Sixers defense reacts with a different looking lineup on the floor. There's a difference in one of the off ball guards being Dennis Schroder than it is Derrick White or Payton Pritchard. What we know won't happen is what Doc did in the first game which had a majority of the possessions against Tatum coming against Danny Green. 

As we know, this team goes as their two best players go. They need to find a way to not dig themselves an early hole, something they were unable to do in each of the last two games, both losses. In the second game, they scored just 20 points in the first quarter and found themselves down 8. In the third game, they got down 32-14 after the first 12 minutes. In those two first quarters, Tatum finished a combined 4-14. They have to find ways to get him easier looks, but he also has to remember to be aggressive and not settle. 

I know so much of the talk about the Sixers is stopping Embiid, but I'm not too worried about how this team matches up defensively. Embiid is going to get his, I think he's earned that assumption. On the season though, the Celts have had a collective Drtg of 105.9 against the Sixers. That's pretty good. Their issue is clearly on the other end. The Celts have only a 99 Ortg through three games with only a 50% AST%. They get too iso heavy and rely on inefficient looks far too often against this team. In the first quarter specifically, they only have a 74.3 Ortg through three games. That's horrific.

If the Celts continue to defend at the level we've seen these last few weeks and they show the ability to not play like complete assholes offensively, they have just a good shot as any to walk away with a win tonight. But a huge part of that will be whether or not Jayson Tatum solves his Thybulle problem. That hasn't been the case the last two games between these two, so now would be a good time to see it.