If Tom Brady Had Stayed in NE, the Patriots Would Be in a World of Hurt Right Now

Maddie Meyer. Getty Images.

Before we begin our discussion and I start to get accused of being a revisionist historian, let's establish a few things. 

One, I take a back seat to no man when it came to my desire to have Tom Brady stay in New England. Were it up to me, he would've signed a contract-for-life like those ABA and USFL stars who are still collecting to this day. I've spent every day since March 17, 2020 - the Worst Irish Christmas Ever - working out my own metaphysical turmoil about the fact he left. 

Two, it was not up to me.

Three, I don't believe in tanking in order to get better. Yes, high draft picks are tempting. But the stench of throwing games gets in a franchise's pores and hair like tobacco smell, and it's hard to wash out. I have no doubt the Colts were glad they Sucked for (Andrew) Luck. He had a good career. But they collapsed in so many playoff games like a plastic Dollar Tree folding chair, and I blame it on the bad juju of throwing a season away, as we've the way the owners of the Dolphins and Browns tried to. As that weirdo hypnotist says to the NY Knights as Roy Hobbs gets up and storms out of the room, losing is a disease as contagious as syphilis. And I want no part of either. 

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Four, on that note, there are no positives to be taken out of that 2020 season. All that winning seven games with a quarterback who threw eight touchdown passes in front of empty stands did was bring up painful repressed memories of my childhood. And I didn't bury them under a pile of championships and an ocean of sweet, sweet booze just to have them resurface. Do not want. 

With all that as preamble, it's worth appreciating the fact that had Brady re-signed a multi-year deal in 2020, the Patriots would be royally screwed right now. The roster would be barren. There would be no one to replace him. The salary cap space would, in all likelihood, be minimal. And we'd be looking at a major rebuild that would make 2020 look like 2003-04, and probably be years in the making. 

Now before you say, "Old Balls, you're a wise, beautiful intellectual, but aren't you forgetting how much better they would've been the last two years with the one of the best quarterbacks in football?" And my answer is, thank you for the kind words, but no I'm not. 

Consider Brady's last year here. The Patriots had the 7th best offense and the 8th best passing attack, while ranking only 16th in passer rating. That was with Julian Edelman having a career year as Brady's only reliable wide receiver. The following year, we didn't even have him. Honestly how much better would the season have been with Brady when his WR1 was Jakobi Meyers (729 yards, no TDs) and his WR2 was Damiere Byrd (who cares)? For sure he would've gotten more than 224 yards and one touchdown out of his tight end depth chart. But even football's greatest alchemist wasn't turning the lead that was Ryan Izzo, Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene into gold. Between the talent thin roster to begin with and the most Covid opt outs in the league, what do we honestly think that team's ceiling would've been with Brady? The division title? A home game in the playoffs? A playoff run? They couldn't do that in 2019 with peak Edelman and the league's top defense. In fact, they went 4-5 in the second half of the season and the Wild Card game. 

And we can't have this conversation without talking about money. The failures of 2020 came while they were paying Cam Newton $1.05 against the cap. While Brady counted for $25 million against the Buccaneers'. Which was obviously a bargain at twice the price. But subtract the $24 million difference from that Pats roster and tell me what kind of Dumbledore-like spells you'd expect Brady to perform to make them winners. I still agree the team would've done better with him than without him. But not a championship contender. 

But let's focus on the here and now. By Bill Belichick's own admission, he had been kicking the salary cap can down the road, and had taken it as far as he could. Blame it on bad drafts, or say it was just because he'd kept that 2014-18 championship era team together as long as he could, but the bill finally came due and he had to pay it. Whatever else the Newton season was, it served as the Ctrl+Alt+Delete the franchise needed to get back into contention.

And what it needed more than anything to get back into contention was the quarterback of the future. If Brady sticking around got you a few extra wins, Mac Jones would've been out of reach. Hell, they took enough of a risk hanging on to their future picks and chancing that he'd still be there at No. 15. They swung a deal to get Christian Barmore and got a steal on Rhamondre Stevenson in the 4th, so parts of the best rookie class in the league would probably still be here. But not the key part.  

If Brady had accepted the team-friendly, incentive-laden deal that apparently insulted him so much he demanded an out clause in his final contract - and exercised it - they could've made some additions in free agency last year. But nothing at all like the wild, unprecedented, Harry-and-Lloyd-with-the-suitcase-full-of-cash-like spending spree that reset Belichick's entire lineup on both sides of the ball. Pick a name or two out of Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Jalen Mills, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, Davon Godchaux, Trent Brown, Kyle Van Noy, Jonnu Smith (maybe not him) and some others. But you're not getting anywhere close to them all. 

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This is a roster that we all acknowledge still needs a big upgrade to close the gap with Cincinnati, Buffalo and Kansas City. Remove those names, and where are we? Now remove those names and Brady's, and we're likely to be trying to close gaps with playoff bubble teams like the Dolphins, Browns and Chargers. And that's probably giving this hypothetical Pats team too much credit. 

Again, I wanted him signed for as long as he wanted to. Just like I agreed with the decision to trade Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017 and keep riding Brady until the end. But that was predicated on the assumption that he planned on playing until he was at least 45 and perhaps until he was 48 or 50. His decision to retire after the 2021 season would have this franchise in a shambles right now. Definitely not a playoff team. Bereft of much hope. And definitely scrambling to find a quarterback in a year with one of the thinnest rookie QB classes of all time, that might have just one going in the first round. 

Instead, it's the Buccaneers who have to figure that out. Brady is preparing his kids school lunches, finally fixing that drippy faucet Gisele has been after him about, and getting ready for Pebble Beach. Belichick is still standing. He's got the quarterback he wanted. On a rookie deal. And can have him for the next 10-20 years. He's got a roster that needs some more youth and athleticism for sure, but he has some cap space and his full slate of draft picks, which is rare. And for the most part he's got a team he likes. One that appears to work hard and responds to coaching. He seems as energized and engaged as he did when he first got here 22 years ago. 

And whatever the future holds, he goes into this offseason knowing that he's outlasted the one player they all said he could never live without. And now he gets to prove everyone wrong. 

Losing Brady to Tampa when we did sucked all the ass in the world. But we'd be so much worse off if we were losing him to retirement now.