Conference Championship Sunday Plums!
I was an impressive 0-4 last week, which means if you faded me you fuckin crushed it. What a miserable fuckin playoffs capping off a miserable season. We're now 47-54 on the year...
Here's who I like today. Hopefully, they're not the same as yours.
Cincinnati Bengals (12-7, 12-7 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-5, 10-9 ATS) -7
The Bengals are plus-4 in turnover margin in two playoff games, and they'll need that good fortune again Sunday to knock off the Chiefs.
The Bengals have found ways to win despite their offensive line that allowed nine sacks to the Titans last week.
I'm optimistic Burrow will deal with less pressure this week, as Kansas City ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate.
The Chiefs defense has been pretty bad down the stretch in non-Steelers matchups, including allowing 34 points and 475 yards against Cincinnati in Week 17.
Even with Tyrann Matthieu's expected return, I think Burrow is capable of going toe to toe on the scoreboard and keeping this game close in the final moments.
I also think the Chiefs are due a minor letdown coming off that incredible comeback win over Buffalo. The Bengals are playing with house money at this point and have to feel confident after beating the Chiefs back in Week 17.
Burrow is 5-0 SU & ATS in its past five starts, and he and Ja'Marr Chase have yet to lose a postseason game together dating to their LSU days (i.e. including bowls and the SEC title game).
Take the points.
- Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
- Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
- Cincinnati are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Kansas City.
(I'm out of the country so I can't log in to the sportsbook. Probably for the best.)
San Francisco 49ers (12-7, 11-8 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (14-5, 10-9 ATS) -3.5
Pretty much everybody loves San Fran in this match-up. And for good reason.
The 49ers have won six straight meetings against the Rams. Their Week 18 meeting saw the 49ers win in overtime, 27-24, after being down 17-0.
The home team has won only six of the last 11 NFC Championship games.
Pretty Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS as an underdog
Plus, we're all well aware the Rams almost blew it in the Divisional Round against the Buccaneers.
And yes, I know the history between these two head coaches and that the record is on Kyle Shanahan's side…but that comes to an end this afternoon.
Los Angeles' offense is too explosive and extremely balanced right now. With OBJ they're running on all cylinders. And with last week's scare, this team (and play-calling) got the point. Sean McVay is also out to prove himself against Shanahan and this Los Angeles team leveraged its entire draft future for this moment right here. Getting back to the Super Bowl, in their own house.
Matthew Stafford knows this is his time and I expect him to play balls out.
Don't be shocked if Kyle Shanahan blows another lead in this one and the Rams come back.
- LA Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
Good luck everybody! Bet responsibly!