Five "Feel It In My Plums" Picks - NFL Week 17 BONUS - Kelly In Vegas' Picks

4-1 last week making us 40-41 on the season. This is the week I break .500. I can feel it in my plums.

Las Vegas Raiders at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -6.5

The Colts have secured the top wild-card spot, which means this game more important for the Raiders, who still technically have a chance at the playoffs. Carson Wentz made a brisk, sufficient recovery from near-term COVID issues, again positioning Wentz to start today. Jonathan Taylor is still the league’s leading rusher (1,626 yards on 297 carries), and the Raiders’ defense is average against the run (14th in yards allowed, with 1,736). I think Taylor has a day today.

Last week the Raiders stayed alive, winning while committing three turnovers against Denver. Extra possessions today for the Colts would mean more chances for Taylor to exploit Las Vegas’s shoddy run defense. 

• Las Vegas are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.
• Las Vegas are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
• Indianapolis are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

Minnesota Vikings at GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5

Kirk Cousins is now ruled out of this game due to Covid, he was famously against getting the vaccine, which moved the line significantly from the +6.5 used for this pick (based off my Super Contest plays). Minnesota's QB situation makes them tough to back at any number.  In their last three games, the Packers (12-3) have given up an average of 166.3 rushing yards. Minnesota will get running back Dalvin Cook back from the Covid-19 list, but without Cousins, Green Bay will be able to stack the box, double team receiver Justin Jefferson, and not worry too much about this one. 

Minnesota's defense has given up at least 28 points in five of its last six games, and in the other, surrendered 370 yards to the Bears offense. 

But the Packers defense hasn't look great either lately, with its last good game coming against the Seahawks in Week 10.

That said, Green Bay at home, in prime time, will get a boost from the home crowd and the refs. They win this one and cover handily.

• Green Bay are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.
• Minnesota are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on the road against Green Bay.

DETROIT LIONS +7.5 at Seattle Seahawks

Overshadowing the continued absence of Detroit QB Jared Goff is the return of RB D’Andre Swift after a four-game injury rehab. Goff’s replacement, Tim Boyle, improved markedly last Sunday in his second start. The Lions, overlooked all year by the public, are 10-5 ATS. Seattle has dropped five of its last seven straight-up and, with the 29th-ranked offense, should not be spotting more than a touchdown to anybody.

The Lions' defense is no joke lately. It has done a solid job of getting off the field and creating turnovers. A touchdown seems like a lot here, especially with the Seahawks coming off of an upset loss to the Bears. Expect the Lions to keep it very close.

Detroit held Atlanta to 254 yards in a 20-16 defeat last Sunday, their sixth cover in their last seven games. They lost due to red-zone struggles. Not today with Swift back.

• Detroit are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
• Seattle are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3.5 at Washington Football Team

Last Sunday, the Washington Football Team was embarrassed in prime time, losing 56-14 to Dallas. Poor losing streaks have been a staple for Ron Rivera-coached teams, dating back to his final years with Carolina. Look for the Eagles to accomplish the difficult task of defeating a divisional opponent twice in 12 days here. If they win they have a 78% chance of landing the wildcard spot, so they're playing for a playoff shot today.

Philly dominated Washington just two weeks ago, and things have worsened for WFT on and off the field. The latest: RB Antonio Gibson, engineer of the ground game, went on the COVID-19 list, which dumps the burden on undrafted rookie Jaret Patterson. WFT figures to be punting a lot, yet Pro Bowler Tress Way (COVID-19) is iffy at best. Philly has RB issues, too, but more depth at the position.

Philly gets Jordan Howard back today, and can balance the running game against Washington, which allows the third-most passing yards per game (269.2) and should not be able to keep pace. 

• Philadelphia are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• Philadelphia are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Washington.

Kansas City Chiefs at CINCINNATI BENGALS +5

Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards last week against the depleted Ravens and Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon all posted over 100 yards from scrimmage in a monumental day. 

The Bengals will want to keep those high-flying performances going with a statement win over Kansas City which locks up a playoff spot for them.

After a 3-4 start, Kansas City has not lost since October, and its defense has improved drastically after being one of the league’s worst. 

Kansas City also returns Travis Kelce, who missed last week’s blowout win against the Steelers on the Covid-19 list. Expect this to be a shootout, in which case the Bengals could cover the spread at home. Think Kansas City wins by a field goal.

• Kansas City are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Cincinnati.
• Cincinnati are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
• Cincinnati are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City.

Here are Kelly's plays today-

Let's have a Sunday!

Let The Boy Watch!