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Five "Feel It In My Plums" Picks - NFL Week 16 BONUS - Kelly In Vegas and Rico's Picks

3-2 last week making us 36-40 on the season. 

This was a short week so had to get my picks in Thursday since I liked SF. Don't ask me why I thought it was a good idea to bet against Mike Vrabel at home in prime time against Kyle Shanahan but it's been one of those years.

SAN FRANSISCO -3 at Tennessee Titans

But we cashed the Colts last night so heading into today 1-1. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3 at Arizona Cardinals

Here are the ones I can feel in my plums today.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -10 at Carolina Panthers

Yah yah, Carolina has the No.2 defense at home facing a wounded Buccaneers pass offense. Antonio Brown is expected back, but Tampa Bay's two starting receivers are out. Panthers have lost four straight, and the Bucs lost 9-0 at home to the Saints last week.

Don't care.

Tom Brady coming off one of the worst games of his career, you think this guy did anything all week besides analyze inside and out how to dismantle this Carolina pass defense?

Carolina has arguably the worst quarterback room in the league, and Coach Matt Rhule said both Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, who just returned from a shoulder injury, will both play on Sunday. That's a win for Tampa.

Brady should be able to score at will while the Panthers’ lousy offense continues to struggle and Tampa can keep their offense on the field all day.

  • Tampa Bay are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • Tampa Bay are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Carolina.
  • Tampa Bay are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina.
  • Carolina are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Carolina are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -7.5

Fuck covid. 

In their last five games, the Steelers have been outscored 91-19 in the first half. Pittsburgh was extremely lucky to beat Tennessee: the Steelers were plus-4 in turnover margin and averaged a measly 3.7 yards per play and 2.1 yards per carry. 

The Chiefs had extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday in Week 15. That always bodes well for Andy Reid.

The Chiefs ride a lightning hot offense into this one vs a struggling Pittsburgh offense. 

The Chiefs spent over a year struggling to cover games but are now on a 5-0 ATS run.

MIAMI DOLPHINS -3 at New Orleans Saints

It is VERY tempting to back the host Saints as short favorites here on Monday Night. 

They just shut out Tom Brady after all. 

Miami expects to have Jaylen Waddle back from the COVID list, giving Tua Tagovailoa an elite target to go along with Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker. Both teams are strong defensively and limited offensively. 

Miami's dogged, blitz-happy defense might get a belated Christmas gift if rookie Ian Book starts for the Saints as expected. The QB has yet to play a down, but New Orleans could have no choice with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on the reserve/COVID-19 list

I like Brian Flores in this spot.

  • Miami are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • New Orleans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Here are Kelly’s picks

and here are Rico’s picks

Let's have a Sunday!

Let The Boy Watch!