Diving Into The Latest Report That The Celtics Could Potentially, Maybe, Probably, One Day Break Up Jaylen Brown And Jayson Tatum
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Jake Fischer has really started to make a name for himself in the world of breaking NBA news. Guy has sources. He gets scoops you hear about long before the Shams/Woj bombs. He does a lot of really interesting work and is definitely worth reading.
Which brings us to this quote. I said it this morning, and it's true. You can set your watch to when these quotes come out. They usually immediately follow a stretch when the Celts look like complete ass. I would say their current 1-4 slide after their West Coast trip fits the bill. He's not the only one to go this route, at this point I think we're all pretty used to it. However, let's look at what he actually says.
He "thinks" this is the beginning of the end for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. He's not reporting that it is, but that you'll "probably" start hearing about it within the next 1-1.5 years. You can pretty much do this for any team/duo in the NBA. If there was actual, concrete substance of that happening, it would be formally reported no? But that's not how the internet works. Mind you, this conversation about the Jays being broken up is coming off a stretch where Jaylen has not played in the last 5 games. Just think of how much can change over the course of 1.5 years for an NBA team?
What I think gets lost on people is the whole timing of the Celts direction. In the summer of 2019, they decided to not blow the Jays up for Anthony Davis. It became very clear from the owner down that the franchise was going to commit to building and developing their two young cornerstone players. That year, they made an ECF run in the bubble before choking their spot in the Finals away. Last season the team as a whole underachieved. No doubt about it. There's context around how they finished, but at the end of the day they did not take the step forward we all thought they would. Then they lost Kemba/Jaylen/Rob for the playoffs and that was that.
Which brings us to this season. They are in no way playing at the level we expect. Part of that probably has to do with Jaylen missing half the season. I dunno, he seems important. But just take a step back and look at the timing since that 2019 decision. The team made the ECF and then did not have that core for a playoff run the following year. When the Celts didn't do the AD deal, did anyone say they needed a title by 2022? Especially if their second best player wouldn't even play in the playoffs? Now back to this season. What makes that statement a little crazy is he is projecting what the Celtics will do in a year, when we don't even know what they'll do at the deadline. Their season isn't over by ANY stretch. Feels a little premature to me.
This is NOT to say that Brad should shit on his hands and do nothing. There are absolutely ways to improve this roster before you even have to entertain the thought of splitting the Jays. One thing I hate is when people say stuff like that and then don't give you a plan. I will give you my order of operations when it comes to figuring this step out
Step 1: Adjust lineups/rotations
The chances we see any sort of trade before the February trade deadline are most likely pretty small. That means in the meantime, Ime should explore different lineup/rotations first as a way to see if that might address some of the issues we're currently seeing. What does that look like? How about abandoning the 2 big (Al/Rob) + 2 PG (Smart+Schroder) lineups. Everything from the eye test to the metrics make it clear that group doesn't work together. It needs more spacing.
A simple solution would to be bringing Scroder/Al off the bench. That gives the second unit some offensive punch plus some good defense. You insert more floor spacers and see if that helps. This doesn't have to be the case with Jaylen back, the metrics around the double bigs with him in the mix actually perform well. The goal should be to avoid having so many non shooters on the floor at the same time.
We can also see some changes in Ime's substitution pattern and closing lineup choices. Time and time we've seen him be stuck in his ways with this and it's hurt the overall product. Let's see what it looks like closing with Grant + starters rather than Horford + starters. Early returns on that group have legit advanced metrics.
Until you can decide what pieces of your roster you have to fix, you need to have a sample size of a wide variety of combinations so you know what truly does and doesn't work. You need to do that by the time you get to Step 2. Let's see what switching that stuff up does for their record by the time February rolls around.
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Step 2: Listen on Schroder deals
We got word this morning that rival executives think Brad will put Schroder up for sale, and that's really not all that surprising. Given that they most likely won't get him to the $7M they can offer next summer, this makes sense. It all depends on the return. Personally, I don't think you're getting much and would be lucky to get a similar impactful player on that same money. You're probably not getting a 1st round pick either, since whoever trades for him won't have his Bird Rights. I think his future would depend on what Brad can do in Step 3.
Step 3: Add with current TPEs
I blogged this a few weeks ago, but the Celts have 3 current TPEs at their disposal come the deadline. There's a 17M one, a 9M one, and a 6M one. I'm someone who would like Brad to explore shooting options with some of those. I gave some names here
I would also expand this to backup point guard options. If you're going to trade Schroder and can't get a point guard in return, you need to address that hole on your roster and you'll have the tools to do it. If there isn't a Schroder replacement, I bet he won't be traded.
Step 4: Explore larger non Tatum/Brown asset trades in the offseason
This became pretty clear to me when we saw Brad give out those extensions. It protected them from potentially overpaying for Rob in RFA, and took care fo the risk of losing Smart for nothing in UFA. Now, if we get to February and that bigger trade is on the table, fine. You pull the trigger. I just don't think that's how it's going to work. Teams with players who you would maybe want as that 3rd star are still going to be trying. It's once you get to the offseason that you have a better chance of finding some sort of trade partner.
This is where I think a lot of people get confused. They think I'm anti-trade. I am not anti-trade. I am anti make a trade just to make a trade. Everyone on the roster has a price. I just push back on trade ideas that I do not think make the Celtics better. That doesn't make me anti trade. If the whole idea is to bring in a 3rd star, I want the Celts to have as many assets as possible once that time comes when the star might be available. If that's February, fine. But it's most likely going to come in the summer.
We'll also have the results of what the deadline moves did for this team. We'll have whatever happens in the playoffs. Just look at last year as the blueprint. They didn't trade a major piece at the deadline and instead went looking for pieces to address their needs with TPE money. It was a little unfortunate, their main addition got covid and then was never the same guy. Ultimately, Brad realized it was going to take more, so he made a major trade in the offseason with a core piece. I see no reason why that can't be the same plan this summer if things truly never get over the hump.
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I don't think this is that unrealistic of a path. You have the next month or so to try shit with the roster you have now to figure out what you might need at the deadline. If no major trade presents itself, you make those additions and see how that looks. Then, if you still need to tinker once you get to the offseason or bring in that 3rd guy, you have the assets to do it.
But most importantly, the team simply needs to play better. If they are going to have games where they turn the ball over 24 times, it's not going to matter what the roster looks like. If they are going to continue to defend at an embarrassing level, nothing else will matter. I hear a lot about how the Celts are a .500 team over the last two years and that's why the Cels core needs to be split. The Smart/Jaylen/Tatum trio is actually 24-18 over the last two years when they all play. That's why before you get to the point where you are breaking that up, you first should exercise every other available option until that star player becomes available.
At the end of the day, if the team and players don't want to deal with quotes and reports like this, it's simple. Win. We heard this shit at 2-5, then didn't hear it for a month when they went 11-6. Now it's back at their 1-4 slide. That is not a coincidence.