Everything You Need To Know About The Cubs Super Secret Offseason Plan

Carl11/29/2021 5:45 PM

The perfect starting point for getting worked up about the Cubs' future:

We're deep into what promises to be one of the most significant MLB off-seasons since the turn of the century. Everybody agrees a work stoppage is coming. Deals are falling out of the sky. There's monumental aspects of the CBA at stake. Everybody hates the commissioner. Nobody has a fucking CLUE what's happening with free agency. All around there's maximum chaos and a ton of money to spend.

I also think it's interesting that baseball is finally on some common ground across the league in how to build a contender. Obviously the payroll anomalies will always create unique situations. But the overarching principle is to build up your farm system and develop homegrown all-star caliber players up the middle and at the top of the rotation. All the leading emphasis should go into player development. Look at any consistent franchise and you'll see the same theme.

Not to say this is news per se. But it's not like there's only 10-12 clubs working towards that goal, then the balance just fucking around and trying to turn a profit. That's been the landscape for most of baseball in my life.

Now and for the most part, just about every club is trying to compete at some level. The Pirates can go sit on the other side of the room. Probably Cleveland too, but higher level my point is that it just feels like all these front offices are on the same page about what's important. Albeit different timelines, but I really feel like we're all moving in the same direction about how to build a good ball club.

In that spirit, here's the tiers. We're getting to the Cubs just let's talk tiers for a second because none of the Cubs stuff is going to make sense unless we lay some groundwork.

Here's my order for building a roster:

1. draft/international signees: Homegrown as many as you can
2. waivers/former prospects/rule-5/has-beens/nobodies/mid-level trades: Jake Arrieta is your textbook golden example
3. Free Agency: BIG NAME BIG MONEY
4. Free Agency: Bullpen needs
5. Free Agency: 1-year deals for utility and 5th starter options
6. Waivers
7. Trade deadline

I'm probably missing some but that's the general sentiment in my heart and soul. It's a proven process.

Some continued observations:

#1 & #2 go together like lamb and tunafish - You're building farm systems with the draft and the international signings. Maybe you're trading veterans and acquiring more minor league depth. But point is you have a focus on unproven minor league guys in tier 1. These are your ride or die young guys you scouted, drafted and developed yourself. Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras and Javy Baez. They know nothing in pro baseball but life as a Chicago Cub. You have maximum control over these players in just about every respect. You're not going anywhere if you don't have a healthy stable of drafted/international homegrown players.

You can also bunch prospects acquired in the rare but bigger name trades here. I still consider Rizzo homegrown even if he broke into the bigs with the Padres. There's maybe a minor difference from being drafted but point remains that group is accounted for here. You have your farm hands that haven't become mainstay MLB regulars. This is basically the starting point for any MLB roster that's trying to win anything.

Giphy Images.

Same time, you still have to play 162 games at the MLB level which is where #2 comes in to play. You're simultaneously running through big league talent to find players that can stick over a 3-5 year plan. Chris Coghlan is a perfect example from those early Cubs rebuild teams. Then there's the Dexter Fowler trade which comes later in the timeline. Basically anyone in the White Sox bullpen over the last 10 years is a good example of players from this category. Pedro Strop, Travis Wood, Mike Montgomery, Trevor Cahill. The list goes on. #2 is all about finding guys that can be moderately-above-average at a reasonable cost. The more of these guys the better and right now we're looking at a bunch of these guys on the Cubs roster.

Homegrown players in the 1st category? Not so much at all. But the cupboard is stuffed with fringe average players that can put up a 115 OPS+ in platoon roles. This brings me to my next consideration:

Ron Vesely. Getty Images.

Hello my name is Chris

Based on #1 & #2, you should know if you have enough to compete for the division - before you even bring up the shortstop market or what starting pitcher is getting paid what, I think it's important to admit that you can't get to level 3 without passing levels 1 & 2. It's bad business to commit in big name free agency when you're still shuffling the deck on your everyday guys. I don't mean play everyday guys. I'm talking character and attitude, and rarely does a free agent enhance that across the team.

Jon Lester is a perfect example of spending a fuck ton of money at the right time. Jason Heyward is not. There's a balance not to mention an overwhelming amount of risk in free agency. You have room for one, maybe two big money arms in the rotation. There's room for one or two big money bats. Realistically you don't want more than 3 huge free agents on your payroll for a number of reasons. Financial risk. Performance risk. Culture risk. Playing time. Flexibility.

A lot of people want to go right to #3 but you have to pass levels 1 and 2 first. The Tigers are a good example of a team that is now knocking on the door sincerely in free agency. Although I personally think they're one season too early but that's just me. You build your shit up before you go spend the money. Otherwise it's like shopping at the grocery store on an empty stomach. You'll come home with a bunch of shit you don't need that's bound to spoil and you're just a big dumb idiot. Everybody knows that feeling.

Giphy Images.

Items 4-7 are assuming you can compete for the division - I probably should have made a flow chart. I'll draw one now.

That's a good representation because once you get to Free Agency, all hell breaks loose depending on needs, finances, division competition, injuries, projections, new prospects and failed prospects. That's where you're maintaining the roster you initially build up in tiers 1 & 2. And to me this has been about 1,100 words about the Cubs without me actually talking about the Cubs. But I'm definitely talking about the Cubs if you have been following me along because there's fundamentally NO WAY they could be spending in free agency confidently right now regardless of what Tom Ricketts said after the fire sale trades.

To me, the focus is so deep on #1 right now and that's a good thing. Carter Hawkins is a new GM in a new league and division with new players and faces everywhere. The Cubs asst GM is a prodigy at building development systems. Everything suggests the Cubs are going back to go forward and I think putting $100-120M of NEW MLB payroll in their lap for next year is a horrible way to start the fresh marriage.

It's crazy to even think the Cubs operated all of last year without a real GM. People forget just how far the Front Office had fallen and no doubt - if you had talent, you got hired into a bigger job somewhere else. It's astounding how many Cubs employees got pulled away over the years from the Theo regime. It's now 10 years later and there's no doubt everything needs to be refreshed.

As a fan, I selfishly want quick results. I want to go back to following October baseball and being in a daily obsession with the result of my team. I want the Cubs to pack 40,000 on a Thursday night Cardinals game that burns the neighborhood down. I want to watch good clean baseball that inspires me because I love good clean baseball. I want to be proud and competitive and engaged. I want every single benefit this has to offer with none of the disadvantages. I'm a selfish fan and that's what I want.

But it's a good thing these Wants have absolutely no impact on the Cubs future. Right now that would be terrible, no good, very bad news. They need to go back one more step and keep adding, growing, building the prospect database. Personally I think that's two more full seasons of being shitty and picking at the top of the draft but realistically I don't think they'll get that much time. I think it's a one year window to fake tank where they essentially play another 162 of what we saw after the trade deadline.

I think Carter Hawkins and Ehsan get a full calendar year to wrap their head around the personnel and what needs to get moved. And then some day I would expect Tom Ricketts to open up his checkbook in a way and manner that has never been witnessed before in MLB history. When that day comes, the Cubs will stand and deliver because that's what Tom Ricketts has been made to do and I have every ounce of faith, conviction and confidence that will hold true.

For now though, it would be a clusterfuck of a situation and I'm not ready for clusterfuck. I want Jason Heyward off the books, a real MLB pitching staff, a shortstop and CF combo that can hit in the top 5 of the lineup, a young catcher with generational leadership traits and enough power in the corner outfield spots to scare the living shit out Corbin Burnes's in-laws. That's not 2022 so maybe enjoy the market value ticket prices and the neighborhood camaraderie. That's about all we got going for us right now which is a lot better than most anyone will ever get to experience. Even at our worst it's still a special bond.