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Katie Stats: How to Bet Michigan State at Ohio State and the Week 12 Slate

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Below you have the same sheet Dave, Big Cat, and Rico get for Pick Ems, my smaller game thread, and then my picks. Let's have ourselves a weekend. 

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#7 Michigan State (9-1) @ #4 Ohio State (9-1), 12:00pm

  • Matchup: OSU has won the L5. In 2020, 52-12 at MSU. In 2019, 34-10 at home. In 2018, 26-6 at MSU.

    • Ohio State has covered the L4 meetings. The under is 5-1.

    • Michigan State: has the #26 scoring offense at 34.6 ppg, #30 rushing offense at 197.8 ypg, #24 total offense at 448.9 ypg, #20 rushing defense at 114 ypg, #130 passing defense at 329 ypg, and #110 total defense at 443 ypg. 

    • Ohio State: has the #1 scoring offense at 46.3 ppg, #6 passing offense at 353.6 ypg, #1 total offense at 550 ypg, #20 scoring defense at 20.2 ppg, #14 rushing defense at 105.9 ypg, and #108 passing defense at 261.1 ypg.

  • Michigan State: Coming off of a 40-21 win over Maryland. Despite the score difference, MSU only had 34 more total yards than Maryland. KW3 had 30 carries for 143 yards and 2 TDs. MSU has the worst passing defense in FBS, at 329 ypg allowed. They lost to Purdue 40-29 the week before. Purdue has the #7 passing offense and threw for 594 yards. Ohio State has the #6 passing offense, what will the damage be there?

    • Are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games.

    • Over is 6-1 vs teams with a winning record. 

    • After accumulating 450+ yards in a game, the over is 7-0.

  • Ohio State: Coming off of a 59-31 win over Purdue. This was the first time in 3 games that Ohio State looked like a national championship competitor. They beat Nebraska 26-17, and beat Penn State 33-24. OSU had 624 yards, and let Purdue throw for 481. CJ Stroud was 31/38 for 361 yards and 5 TDs.

    • When favored by more than 14 against a ranked team, 0-6 ATS and under is 7-1.

    • At home against ranked teams, 0-4 ATS and under is 5-1.

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Iowa State (6-4) @ #13 Oklahoma (9-1), 12:00pm

  • Matchup: Oklahoma won their last meeting in the B12 Championship, 27-21. ISU won their regular season meeting in 2020, 37-30 at home. In 2019, OU won 42-41 at home. 

    • Iowa State has covered the L5 regular season meetings. Their last meeting was in the Big 12 championship, where Oklahoma covered and won. L4 in Oklahoma went over. 

    • Iowa State: has the #24 scoring defense at 20.5 ppg, #18 rushing defense at 112.6 ypg, #21 passing defense at 193.6 ypg, and #10 total defense at 306.2 ypg. 

    • Oklahoma: has the #8 scoring offense at 40 ppg, #20 passing offense at 283.9 ypg, #17 total offense at 454.6 ypg, and #104 passing defense at 257.3 ypg.

  • Iowa State: Coming off of a 41-38 loss to Texas Tech. Iowa State worked to come back from a 21 point deficit, tied it, and lost to a 62 yard FG as time expired and the fans stormed the field. ISU was held to 89 rushing yards, and allowed Texas Tech to have 529 total yards. Just an overall deflating loss. Beat Texas 30-7 the week before.

    • After a loss, 5-0 ATS. 

    • As an underdog, under is 7-2. 

    • Against a ranked team, under is 8-0. 

    • After a spread loss, 6-1 ATS. 

    • When an underdog by less than 7 points, the under is 14-0. 

    • On the road, over is 4-0.

  • Oklahoma: Coming off of their first loss of the season, 27-14 to Baylor. Oklahoma only had 260 yards, and allowed 2 Baylor players to have 100+ rushing yard games, and one was the QB. Caleb Williams was 9/18 for 142 yards, no TDs, 2 INTs, and was benched for Rattler. They broke their 17 game win streak, and their streak of scoring 30+ points in 35 consecutive true road games. Beat Texas Tech 52-21 the week before. 

    • After a loss, over is 7-1. 

    • When favored by less than 7, 9-1 ATS. 

    • After a spread loss, over is 7-2. 

    • Are 5-0 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record. 

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#12 Wake Forest (9-1) @ Clemson (7-3), 12:00pm

  • Matchup: Clemson has won the L12. In 2020, 37-13 at Wake. In 2019, 52-3 at home. In 2018, 63-3 at Wake. 

    • At Clemson, the under is 5-1.

    • Wake Forest: has the #2 scoring offense at 44.7 ppg, #14 passing offense at 318 ypg, #7 total offense at 498.4 ypg, #115 rushing defense at 201.9 ypg, and #106 total defense at 440.1 ypg. 

    • Clemson: has the #100 passing offense at 198.9 ypg, #107 total offense at 344.7 ypg, #3 scoring defense at 15.3 ppg, #17 rushing defense at 111.1 ypg, #28 passing defense at 197.8 ypg, and #11 total defense at 308.9 ypg.

  • Wake Forest: Coming off of a 45-42 win over NC State, in a very ugly game. Wake threw 3 INTs, NC State threw 2. Wake was helped by State having 119 penalty yards. Hartman was 20/47 for 290 yards, 3 TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 3 INTs. Lost to UNC 58-55 the week before, showing that Wake doesn’t have a defense. 

    • Over is 5-1 in their L6 games. 

    • Over is 5-1 as an away team.

    • Over is 5-0 in November. 

    • Over is 4-0 against teams with a winning record. 

  • Clemson: Coming off of a 44-7 win over UConn. UConn had 116 passing yards, and -17 rushing yards, while Clemson had 476 total yards. DJ was 21/44 for 241 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Not a great % for playing UConn. Beat Louisville 30-24 the week before. Their offense is still in shambles.

    • Their L3 games went over. 

    • 2-8 ATS so far this year. 

    • At home this year, 1-4 ATS and under is 3-1-1. 

    • After a spread loss, 1-6 ATS. 

    • Against ranked teams, the under is 6-2. 

    • Are 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning record.

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#21 Arkansas (7-3) @ #2 Alabama (9-1), 3:30pm

  • Matchup: Alabama has won the L13 games. In 2020, 52-3 at Arkansas. In 2019, 48-7 at home. In 2018, 65-31 at Arkansas.

    • Arkansas: has the #6 rushing offense at 233.5 ypg, and #24 passing defense at 195.7 ypg.

    • Alabama: has the #3 scoring offense at 44.6 ppg, #11 passing offense at 322.6 ypg, #10 total offense at 484.7 ypg, #12 scoring defense at 18.2 ppg, #4 rushing defense at 83.5 ypg, and #5 total defense at 290.3 ypg. 

  • Arkansas: Coming off of a 16-13 OT win over LSU. KJ Jefferson had 142 yards, and led the team in rushing at 41 yards. It was Arkansas’ first win over LSU since 2015. Arkansas had 283 yards, and LSU had 308, just a defensive rock match. They beat Mississippi State 31-28 the week before. 

    • Are 0-3-1 ATS in L4 games. 

    • As an away underdog, over is 5-1.

    • As an underdog, 10-4 ATS.

    • As an away team, 5-2-1 ATS.

  • Alabama: Coming off of a 59-3 win over New Mexico State. NMSU is so bad that you can't really tell anything from this game. They beat LSU 20-14 the week before. Alabama only had 6 rushing yards. Alabama had 5 sacks, and LSU had 4. The OL struggled protecting Young or allowing the run game to take off.

    • At home, 10-2 ATS. 

    • Against ranked teams at home, 4-0 ATS.

    • Since 2020, 14-7 ATS in regular season games.

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SMU (8-2) @ #5 Cincinnati (10-0), 3:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, Cincinnati won 42-13 at SMU. In 2018, Cincinnati won 26-20 at SMU.

    • The L4 have gone under. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings. 

    • SMU: has the #6 scoring offense at 41.6 ppg, #8 passing offense at 329 ypg, #6 total offense at 498.7 ypg, and #121 passing defense at 279.8 ypg. 

    • Cincinnati: has the #9 scoring offense at 39.2 ppg, #16 scoring defense at 16.2 ppg, #5 passing defense at 164.4 ypg, and #13 total defense at 315.8 ypg. 

  • SMU: Top receiver Danny Gray didn’t practice on Tuesday due to ankle injury, status for Saturday is unclear. Coming off of a 55-28 win over UCF. SMU had 631 yards, and allowed 333. Tanner Mordecai was 37/54 for 377 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. Two RBs had just under 100 yard games. They peaked at #19 in the AP Poll in Week 9. Lost to Memphis 28-25 the week before.

    • As an away team, 1-6 ATS. 

    • As an underdog, under is 4-1.

    • L3 against ranked teams went under.

  • Cincinnati: Coming off of a 45-28 win over USF. Ridder was 31/39 for 304 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 1 INT. After holding USF to 7 first half points, they allowed them to score 21 in the 2nd. Cincinnati was only up by 10 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd, and had to work to come back. Squeaked by Tulsa 28-20 the week before.

    • Haven’t covered their L4 games. 

    • Against unranked teams, 0-4 ATS. 

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#3 Oregon (9-1) @ #24 Utah (7-3), 7:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2019, Oregon won 37-15 in the P12 championship. In 2018, Utah won 32-25 at home.

    • Over is 7-1 in the L8 meetings. 

    • Oregon: has the #21 scoring offense at 35.3 ppg, #10 rushing offense at 227.4 ypg, and #25 rushing defense at 119.9 ypg.

    • Utah: has the #18 scoring offense at 35.7 ppg, and #17 rushing offense at 215.1 ypg.

  • Oregon: Coming off of a 38-24 win over Washington State. It took a while for Oregon to get going, were tied at 14 at halftime, and only up by 7 halfway through the 4th. Anthony Brown had 135 passing yards and 123 rushing. Beat Washington 26-16 the week before. 

    • After a spread win, over is 7-2. 

    • On the road, 4-1 ATS and under is 5-1. 

    • As an underdog, 5-0 ATS. 

    • As a road underdog, the under is 8-3. 

    • Against ranked teams, 6-1 ATS. 

    • When an underdog by less than 7, 4-0 ATS.   

    • After a spread win, 1-5 ATS.

  • Utah: Coming off of a 38-29 win over Arizona. Arizona was within 2 points with only 10:30 left in the game. Utah was without their leading rusher Tavion Thomas, who seemed to be held out as a precaution due to injury. They beat Stanford 52-7 the week before.

    • L6 games went over. 

    • At home, over is 5-1. 

    • When favored by less than 7, the over is 6-1. 

    • When a home favorite, over is 5-0. 

    • Won SU their L6 games at home.

My ongoing thread for smaller games. ie: if I have a pick that is not from the above games, it came from here.

My Card:

Iowa St/Okla u59.5 🔒

MSU/OSU o67.5

Ohio State -20

Wake/Clem o56

SMU +11

Rutgers/PSU u46.5

Illinois/iowa u37.5

Notre Dame -17

Nebraska TT u15.5

Florida TT o38.5

Oregon +3

If you do bet, please do so responsibly.