Tonight Is The Night Texas Basketball - NOT Football, Duh - Proves They Are A National Title Contender
First losing day of the year yesterday thanks to Wofford by .5 point and Nova blowing it in OT. It happens. It's why it's a long season. It's why you just have to move on to the next day. Hey, at least we're not Louisville. That's always a plus. But like I say in every blog here. I'm willing to take any and all feedback for how you want the daily picks blog set up. My goal here is to always show why my picks are just that and breakdown the biggest games of the day too. But if there's a better concept or way to put it out there, let me know. Let's get into today.
As always - all the lines come from the Barstool Sportsbook. Download the app here.
2021-22 Record: 12-10
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The game of the night. So after football, stay up and watch Texas go to Gonzaga. Honestly, I love that we're getting this game because I think these are the two best teams in the country. Even better is this game is on campus. It's going to be wild at Gonzaga tonight. Obviously I'm higher on Texas than most and it's because of their depth. That's going to matter today with Dylan Disu not being available. That means Christian Bishop/Tre Mitchell are going to have to handle Chet/Timme. There are two major questions here. 1) Will Texas be able to put Timme in enough screens and motions to take advantage similar to what Baylor did to him in the title game. 2) Will Gonzaga be able to hit jumpers? Texas is going to run the no middle defense. They are going to sag and dare Gonzaga to beat them. Chet is a cheat code in the sense of being a unicorn and able to knock that down, dragging guys out of the paint so Timme can work on one one. I'm a bit worried about Texas getting killed on the glass but if they can use their guards and wings to get Timme lost on defense, they are going to cover. This is one of those games where we'll look back in March and see the difference. Texas has a chance to prove that are a title contender tonight even without Disu - who is vital in this game.
Pick: Texas +7.5
Pat Kelsey is doing the same shit at Charleston he did at Winthrop. Run, speed up tempo on both sides of the ball. They are 10th in average tempo both on offense and defense. They also have a guy in John Meeks - a transfer from Bucknell who has a chance to lead the country in scoring. While Loyola plays slow on offense, their adjusted tempo defensively is 21st in the country. Another key here? Both teams are 247th/330th in giving up free throw attempts/field goal attempts. That means a lot of free throws should be happening in this game and Charleston shoots over 71% as a team from the line. Throw all that together and we're taking the over.
Pick: Over 150.5
I actually think New Mexico is a bit undervalued here. We took them at home in the spot play in game 1 with Pitino Jr. taking over. Now we're going to take them again because I'm not buying Colorado yet. I'm not buying them with everything they lost and having to play through Evan Battey. Also think New Mexico has an advantage here with turnovers. They are playing fast and trying to force turnovers. Colorado had 16 turnovers against Montana State. They also shot 9-for-19 from three. I don't know if I trust that to carry over.
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Pick: New Mexico +15
UC Irvine is typically one of my favorite mid-majors. This is just a bad matchup for them. Boise State has a bunch of versatility, especially on the wing and to throw on Welp. I just don't trust Irvine's offense. They thrive defensively and Boise State is good enough to make shots. I know it's on the road, but I just trust the size of Boise State's wings to really bother Irvine.
Pick: Boise State -2
Back to fading Wichita State. They have a bit of luck factor. Last year they ranked 23rd in luck factor on KenPom. This year started a bit the same. It took Tyson Etiene launching a 35-footer at the buzzer to beat Jacksonville State. They honestly should have lost that game. South Alabama? Yeah they have a bunch of high-major transfers. Just like the reason I faded Wichita State in game 1? South Alabama runs a TON of zone. Richie Riley will throw in a ton of junk defenses and dare you to beat them in a shooting contest. I'm fine with that here.
Pick: South Alabama +12