Katie Stats: How to Bet Auburn at Texas A&M and the Week 10 Slate

Week 10. Let's do this shit. You have the game breakdowns that the Pick Em guys get, my thread of smaller game breakdowns, and my picks. I had a good reset week last week, so I'm back to feeling confident. Let's have ourselves a Saturday.

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#5 Ohio State (7-1) @ Nebraska (3-6), 12:00pm

  • Matchup: Ohio State has won the L6. In 2020, won 52-17 at home. In 2019, won 48-7 at Nebraska. In 2018, won 36-31 at home. 

    • Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in the L7 meetings. The L3 meetings went under. 

    • Ohio State: #1 scoring offense at 47.3 ppg, #6 pass offense at 346.3 ypg, #1 total offense at 547.6 ypg, #20 scoring defense at 19.3 ppg, and #16 rush defense at 106.88 ypg.

    • Nebraska: #28 rush offense at 202.11 ypg, #16 total offense at 468.8 ypg, and #27 scoring defense at 20.3 ppg. 

  • Ohio State: Coming off of a 33-24 win over Penn State. PSU was held to 33 rushing yards, whereas OSU had 161. TreVeyon Henderson had 152 rushing yards. OSU was 5 for 14 on 3rd down conversions. This was the first time since the Oregon game that Ohio State looked vulnerable. They beat Indiana 54-7 the week before. 

    • After an ATS loss, 15-1-1 ATS. As an away favorite, 8-1-1 ATS, and the over is 7-0-1. When favored by 14+ on the road, 6-1 ATS and L5 went over. Against unranked teams, they covered the L4 and the over is 6-1. Over is 7-1-1 vs a team with a losing record.

  • Nebraska: Coming off of a 28-23 upset loss to Purdue. Adrian Martinez threw 4 interceptions. Scott Frost is now 5-18 in one score games. They had a bye week, and lost to Minnesota 30-23 the week before. 

    • Haven’t covered their L3 games. After an upset loss, 3-6 ATS and under is 6-3. After a loss, under is 7-2-1. As an underdog, 6-0 ATS and under is 6-1-1. When a dog by 14+, under is 4-1. As a home underdog, over is 8-2.

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#13 Auburn (6-2) @ #14 Texas A&M (6-2), 3:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, A&M won 31-20 at Auburn. In 2019, Auburn won 28-20 at Texas. In 2018, Auburn won 28-24 at home. 

    • Auburn has covered the L4 at A&M. The L4 meetings went over. Road team is 8-1 ATS.

    • Auburn: #25 scoring offense at 34.9 ppg, #27 total offense at 452.3 ypg, and #24 scoring defense at 19.8 ppg.

    • Texas A&M: #93 passing offense at 208 ypg, #4 scoring defense at 16.6 ppg, and #29 total defense at 329.3 ypg. 

  • Auburn: Coming off of a 31-20 win over Ole Miss. RB Tank Bigsby had 140 yards. In the second half, both defenses kicked in as each team only scored a FG. Auburn had a bye week, then beat Arkansas 38-23 the week before. 

    • As an away team, under is 8-1. As an underdog, 2-5 ATS and under is 5-2. As an away underdog, the under is 5-1. After a win, under is 9-2. Against ranked teams, under is 8-3, and when at the ranked team, under is 5-1. Against SEC teams, under is 9-2.

  • Texas A&M: Coming off of a bye week, and beating South Carolina 44-14 the week before. South Carolina was held to 2 garbage time TDs, and only 185 total yards. Both RBs Devon Achane and Isaiah Spiller had 100+ yards. The week before they beat Mizzou 35-14.

    • Covered their L3 games. After a bye, 2-5 ATS and under is 5-2. At home, 4-1 ATS and over is 6-2. L5 games in November went under. After scoring 40+ points in a game, the under is 6-0. Against SEC schools, 5-2 ATS.

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LSU (4-4) @ #2 Alabama (7-1), 7:00pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, Alabama won 55-17 at LSU. In 2019, LSU won 46-41 at Alabama. In 2018, Alabama won 29-0 at LSU.

    • Road team has covered the L5 meetings. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the L8 meetings.

    • LSU: #112 rushing offense 112.25 ypg and #32 passing offense at 269.8 ypg.

    • Alabama: #2 scoring offense at 45.9 ppg, #11 passing offense at 323 ypg, #10 total offense at 494 ypg, #4 rushing defense at 89.63 ypg, and #13 total defense at 308.8 ypg. 

  • LSU: Coming off of a bye week, where they didn’t have enough healthy players to do their annual Tiger Bowl scrimmage. The week before they lost to Ole Miss 31-17, who had a banged up Matt Corral. The most receptions that a receiver had vs. Ole Miss was 4. In their 49-42 win over Florida, LSU had 321 rushing yards, yet against Ole Miss they only had 77.

    • As an underdog, over is 5-1. After a bye week, 5-0 ATS. After a loss, 4-2 ATS and over is 4-1. Against ranked teams, 3-5 ATS.

  • Alabama: Coming off of a bye week. Beat Tennessee 52-24 after being up only 7 part way through the 3rd. Tennessee only had 64 rushing yards and under 20 minutes of possession time. They beat Mississippi State 49-4 the week before.

    • 4-1 ATS in their L5 games. As a home favorite, 9-1 ATS. Against SEC teams at home, 7-0 ATS. After a bye, the over is 5-1. When 21+ favorites against SEC schools, 7-0 ATS.

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#4 Oregon (7-1) @ Washington (4-4), 7:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2019, Oregon won 35-31 at Washington. In 2018, Oregon won 30-27 at home. In 2017, Washington won 38-3 at home. 

    • Oregon, when favored in the matchup, 12-0 ATS. When at Washington, Oregon is 6-1 ATS.

    • Oregon: #23 scoring offense at 36.1 ppg, #25 rushing offense at 204.88 ypg, #108 passing defense at 261.1 ypg.

    • Washington: #104 scoring offense at 22.8 ppg, #99 rushing offense at 122.88 ypg, #101 total offense at 352.9 ypg, #18 scoring defense 18.9 ppg, #97 rushing defense at 179.63 ypg, #1 passing defense at 146.3 ypg, and #26 total defense at 325.9 ypg. 

  • Oregon: Coming off of a 52-29 win over Colorado. Oregon had a season high of 568 yards of offense. Anthony Brown was 25/31 for 307 yards and 3 TDs. RB Travis Dye had 2 rushing TDs and 1 receiving one. They beat UCLA 34-31 the week before. 

    • 1-5 ATS in their L6 games. After a win, 2-7 ATS and over is 10-3. As a favorite, 0-9 ATS. As a road favorite, 1-4 ATS.

  • Washington: Coming off of a 20-13 win over Stanford. RBs Sean McGrew and Cameron Davis combined for 200+ yards, and Stanford struggled to stop them. They beat Arizona 21-16 the week before.

    • Under is 7-1 on the season, and on a 2-9 ATS run. At home, 1-5 ATS. As a home underdog, 0-5 ATS, but the stat goes back to 2014. Against P12 teams, 2-7 ATS, and the L4 went under. In all games since 2019, under is 9-3.

Here are some more breakdowns that I have done for games on a smaller scale. These are where I get my picks from that aren't from the above games.

My Picks as of now:

Army/AF u37.5 🔒  - Service Academy unders are 39-9-1. Not gonna lie, I'm a bit nervous that the total has gone up, but fuck it. In numbers we trust. 

UTSA/UTEP u52.5

Georgia 1H (tbd)

Pitt -20.5

Ill/Minnesota u43.5

Purdue +3.5

MSU/Purdue u53.5

Michigan -18.5

LSU/Alabama o66

Alabama -28.5

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