On a recent episode of Pick Em , Big Cat stated he's going to have a "November to Remember" in terms of gambling. He was the Pat Hill Trophy champion last year and has been upset with his results. He's declaring a line in the sand type moment, and is assuring his supporters a better November. To his credit, he's crushed MACtion thus far.
I'm hoping to channel that energy on my full card as it's been pretty bad of late. What has remained hot is the blog , breaking down some specific spots/ angles in relation to the college football card. +16.39 unit run to be exact.
First let's recap the last blog :
- Michigan Michigan St pick is ... Sparty +4 - WINNER
- My best bet is : Buffalo -13.5 ... LOSS
Bonus pick : Buffalo Team Total over 32.5 points ... WINNER
- _ vs is my favorite over ... Duke/ Wake Forest Over 70 ... LOSS.
- A 2 team ML parlay worth a stab is __
FSU +285 / UNC +135 pays out +805
Virginia +115 / TCU +140 pays out +416
Michigan St +145 / Colorado St +114 pays out +424
0-3 on the parlays
A total record of 2-5 , knocking down the hot streak run to 20-9 +16.39 units
My first losing week in a while. Let's turn this around real quick. Onto the questions of the week :
- What's your picks in both Friday night games ?
Game 1: Cincinnati -23.5 @ South Florida Over/Under 57
The storyline in recent weeks has been Cincinnati's inability to blow out the teams they should be. The Bearcats are hanging their hat on a Notre Dame win which gets better by the week, however will that hold more weight then barely beating Tulsa (who should have won if their Quarterback had any brains) , and letting Tulane hang around for a while ? The system is built to favor the Power 5 and I'm thinking the committee weighs those unimpressive wins more than a good win.
So the obvious thought is Cincy will need a blowout right ? You would think so. I just can't get behind a team who continuously lets teams hang around in games. I'm also not super amped up to back a South Florida team who ranks 91st in points, 97th in yards on offense, and 115th in points allowed , and 125th in yards allowed.
What I will back is the over 57. I watched South Florida score 42 points last week vs a very good Houston defense. I was impressed with QB Timmy McClain throwing the ball. I think two scenarios are in play here :
- South Florida is in a position to make a few throws we need to get some points, even on the Cincy D. The Cincy team does what it has all year and refuses to put them away, and we get a 34-27 type game.
- Cincy goes scorched earth , puts up the major number they need to and wins 51-10.
Both scenarios provide a over.
Game 2 : Wyoming @ Boise St -14 O/U 47.5
Wyoming's D is fantastic. 30th in points allowed, 21st in yards allowed. However their offense is 102nd in points and 103rd in total yards. Look no further than their recent run of games :
14 points vs Air Force, 0 vs Fresno St , 3 vs New Mexico, 21 vs San Jose ST (all losses) , and finally a win 31 vs Colorado St.
Boise has been much more consistent of late including a 40-14 thrashing of Fresno St last week.
It's the chalk ... but I can't trust this Wyoming offense to do anything against a respectable Boise St D. I will be laying the number with the Broncos ... Boise St -14 .
- My favorite road favorite is ____
This one I like a lot. Louisiana -7 . Following an opening week loss to Texas , Louisiana has rattled off 8 in a row. If you haven't had a chance to watch. The anchor is their QB Levi Lewis. Great arm, and keeps the defense honest if he needs to run. Behind him are a tandem of running backs - Chris Smith 6 yards per carry, and Montrell Johnson 5.9 yards per carry .
The Troy D is going to put up a fight . Their rush D holds teams to 113.9 yards per game on the ground. However, in their last two games - South Alabama put up 148 and Coastal rushed for 216. I think the Louisiana offense will be able to have their way.
Lastly, Troy's offense 156th in yards, 81st in points has been very up and down this year, and in a one score game I love Louisiana here. Proven commodity within the conference, experienced ball carriers. Ragin Cajuns get the cover as this line seems too short to me.
- My favorite home underdog is ___
I'm going to say Coach O has one more upset in him. I haven't bought Arkansas and I don't buy them here. Give me LSU +2.5 at home , at night. Cue the music ...
- 2 team ML dog parlay is _
This space sunk us last time, so let's really nail this one.
The first one without a doubt is NC State +104 . Wake just lost to UNC in a game that weirdly didn't count in the ACC standings, so their hope for a conference title is still alive. However, I think they have been exposed that a team can score fairly easily on them. 58 points and 546 yards allowed. An insane 330 allowed on the ground.
NC State has the 23rd best pass offense, and an elite defense. I love the QB Devin Leary , and I'm on the Wolfpack in this one.
The second leg is Rutgers +220 . I get it. They stink. But you know who else stinks ? Indiana. Two bad teams, take a stab at one who can pay out big.
NC ST/ Rutgers ML Parlay +553
This week's episode of Pick Em can be viewed here.
It's time to get back from relegation . Gamble responsibly .
Bonus- their will be new Ryders merch on Black Friday