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Katie Stats: How to Bet Michigan at Michigan State and the Week 9 Slate

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it is Week 9, you know the drill by now. Here is the sheet that Dave, Big Cat, and Rico get for Pick Ems. I still sadly have no idea which side to ride with for the Michigan Michigan State game this weekend... But otherwise, may your teams cover and all your bets win. 

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#6 Michigan @ #8 Michigan State, 12pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, MSU won 27-24 at UM. In 2019, Michigan won 44-10 at home. In 2018, Michigan won 21-7 at MSU.

    • At MSU the under is 5-1, and MSU is 5-1 ATS, though they lost the most recent. Since 2008, MSU is 11-2 ATS; the 2 losses are in ‘18 and ‘19.

    • Michigan has the #15 scoring offense at 37.7 ppg, #5 rushing offense at 253.29 ypg, #104 passing offense at 189.6 ypg, #2 scoring defense at 14.3 ppg, #25 rushing defense at 116.57 ypg, #20 passing defense at 182.4 ypg, and #11 total defense at 299 ypg. 

    • MSU has the #26 total offense at 450.7 ypg, #19 scoring defense at 18.7 ppg, and the #121 passing defense at 285.4 ypg. 

  • Michigan: Coming off of a 33-7 win over Northwestern. Michigan was only up by 3 at halftime, but went on a 23 point run in the 2nd half. They held Northwestern to only 233 total yards. Both Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins had a 110+ rushing yard game with 4 TDs between them. RB Blake Corum is #19 with 104.14 rushing ypg. The week before they struggled to beat Nebraska 32-29.

    • Is 6-1 ATS this season. Against ranked teams, the over is 8-2, and when at the ranked team, the L5 have gone over. When away, the L5 have gone over, and as an away favorite, the L5 have gone over. Are 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. 

  • Michigan State: Coming off of a bye week. Week before they beat Indiana 20-15. KW3 was held to 84 rushing yards (after having 233 against Rutgers) on 23 attempts. They punted on their first 6 possessions. KW3 is averaging 142.43 rushing ypg. The week before, they beat Rutgers 31-13.

    • Is 5-1-1 ATS this season, and under is 4-1 in L5. At home, 2-10 ATS, and over is 4-1. As an underdog, over is 4-1. When a home dog, 1-5 ATS. Against ranked teams, the under is 8-1. With a rest advantage, over is 4-1.

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Texas @ #16 Baylor, 12pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, Texas won 27-16 at home. In 2019, Baylor won 24-10 at home. In 2018, Texas won 23-17 at home.

    • The L8 meetings went over. 

    • Texas has the #9 scoring offense at 41.6 ppg, #14 rushing offense at 229.86 ypg, #24 total offense at 456.7 ypg, #114 rushing defense at 201.29 ypg, and #106 total defense at 433.1 ypg. 

    • Baylor has the #14 scoring offense at 38.3 ppg, #9 rushing offense at 239.14 ypg, #15 total offense at 471 ypg, and #19 scoring defense at 18.7 ppg.

  • Texas: Coming off of a bye week. They lost to Oklahoma State 32-24 the week before. Texas has a 24-13 lead in the 3rd and allowed Ok State to score 19 unanswered points. Casey Thompson had 2 INTs. RB Bijan Robinson is 3rd with 132 ypg. Before Ok State, they lost to Oklahoma 55-48 in another game they lost a big lead in. 

    • Haven’t SU lost 3 in a row since 2016. Against ranked teams the under is 6-2. When at a ranked team, the under is 9-1. As an away team, the over is 4-1.

  • Baylor: Coming off of a bye week. Beat BYU 38-24 the week before. BYU was held to 67 rushing yards, but they averaged 11 yards per pass. RB Abram Smith is 10th with 112.14 ypg.

    • Over is 5-1 and is 5-1 ATS in the L6. At home, 4-0 ATS, and the over is 6-1. As a favorite, 4-0 ATS and over is 4-0. Against unranked teams, 5-0 ATS and L5 went over. As a home favorite, 5-1 ATS and L4 went over.

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#1 Georgia vs. Florida, Jacksonville @ 3:30pm

  • Matchup: In 2020, Florida won 44-28, ending a 3 year Georgia win streak. In 2019, Georgia won 24-17. In 2018, Georgia won 36-17.

    • Georgia has the #13 scoring offense at 38.4 ppg, #1 scoring defense at 6.6 ppg, #2 rushing defense at 64.29 ypg, #2 passing defense at 144.9 ypg, and #1 total defense at 209.1 ypg. 

    • Florida has the #26 scoring offense at 34.4 ppg, #4 rushing offense at 254.29 ypg, #9 total offense at 501.7 ypg, and the #28 pass defense at 197.6 ypg.

  • Georgia: Coming off of a bye week. Beat Kentucky 30-13, and allowed 2 TDs in a game for the first time this season. Held Kenucky to 51 rushing yards, and 243 total yards. Stetson Bennett averaged 12.5 yards per pass. Seems JT Daniels is getting closer to being healthy, but the confidence in Bennett is growing. The week before they beat Auburn 34-10.

    • Their L3 went under. At neutral sites, the under is 6-1. After a spread loss, the over is 4-0. After a bye, 0-4 ATS, and under is 3-1.

  • Florida: Coming off of a bye week. Lost to LSU 49-42, as a 12 point favorite, the week before. Both Anthony Richardson and Emory Jones had 2 INTs each. Team didn’t have any penalties. Richardson is averaging 12.4 yards per carry, on 28 carries. The week before, they beat Vanderbilt 42-0. 

    • As an underdog, 6-1 ATS, and over is 4-0. When an underdog to a ranked team, 6-1 ATS. At neutral sites, the over is 4-0. Florida is 2-6 in their L8 against P5 teams.

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#10 Ole Miss @ #18 Auburn, 7:00pm

  • Matchup: Auburn has won the L5. In 2020, won 35-28 at MS. In 2019, won 20-14 at home. In 2018, won 31-16 at MS.

    • The L3 meetings went under. Ole Miss has covered the L3 at Auburn. Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the L5.

    • Ole Miss has the #7 scoring offense at 41.9 ppg, #3 rushing offense at 263.29 ypg, #24 passing offense at 277.9 ypg, #3 total offense at 541.1 ypg, and #100 total defense at 422 ypg. 

    • Auburn has the #23 scoring offense at 35.4 ppg.

  • Ole Miss: Coming off of a 31-17 win over LSU. LSU was held to 77 rushing yards on 35 attempts. Only WR Dontario Drummond had over 2 receptions. They did give up 106 yards in penalties. The week before, they beat Tennessee 31-26.

    • As an underdog, have covered the L3 and each went under. As an away underdog, the under is 4-1. With a rest disadvantage, 3-0 ATS.

  • Auburn: Coming off of a bye week. Week before they beat Arkansas 38-23. They had 2 TDs within 3:03 to take the lead. Arkansas was without 4 of their starters. Bo Nix was 21/26 for 292 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. The week before, they lost to Georgia 34-10.

    • As a favorite, 6-1 ATS. As a home favorite, 4-1 ATS. Against a ranked team, under is 4-1, and is 5-1 ATS. When favored by less than 7, the under is 7-0. 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning road record. 

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#20 Penn State @ #5 Ohio State, 7:30pm

  • Matchup: Ohio State has won the L4. In 2019, won 38-25 at PSU. In 2018, won 28-17 at home. In 2017, won 27-26 at PSU. 

    • Penn State has the #100 rushing offense at 119.17 ypg, #6 scoring defense at 14.7 ppg, #15 passing defense at 178 ypg, and #26 total defense at 324.4 ypg. 

    • OSU has the #1 scoring offense at 49.3 ppg, #25 rushing offense at 207.14 ypg (TreVeyon Henderson has 99 rush ypg, is 22nd), #6 passing offense at 352.1 ypg, #1 total offense at 559.3 ypg, and the #18 scoring defense.

    • Under is 3-1-1 in the L4 meetings. Underdog/PSU is 4-1 ATS in the L5.

  • Penn State: Coming off of a 9OT 20-18 loss to Illinois. In the loss, PSU only had 227 total yards, of which 62 were from rushing. They held Illinois to 38 passing yards, and got 3 turnovers from them. 2 Illinois rushers ran for 365 yards, and PSU couldn’t stop them. Sean Clifford, while playing through injury, was 19/34 for 165 yards and 1 TD. Had a bye week, and lost to Iowa 23-20 the week before.

    • As the away team, the under is 4-1. As an underdog, under is 5-1-1. As an away underdog, the under is 4-1. After a loss, 1-7 ATS, and under is 4-1. When an underdog by 10+, 1-4 ATS. After a spread loss, the under is 5-1. Under is 8-1 after having less than 100 rushing yards in a game.

  • Ohio State: Coming off of a 54-7 win over Indiana. OSU had 539 yards, and CJ Stroud averaged 9.5 yards per pass. Indiana was held to 128 total yards. CJ Stroud is #2 in yards/attempt at 10.6, has 22 TDs to 3 INTs for 327.5 ypg on the season. WRs Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Nijagba, and Chris Olave combine for 17 TDs of the team’s 24 passing TDs, and 239.1 ypg. Had a bye week, beat Maryland 66-17 the week before.

    • Covered the L4 and L3 went over. Against a ranked team at home, the under is 4-1, and they covered the L3. When favored by more than 14, are 0-5 ATS, and under is 6-1. After a spread win, the over is 4-0. Their L4 Big Ten games went over. 

My Picks:

Iowa +3 is my lock of the week, I'm not sure about the rest of my card yet. I've been disgustingly cold recently so I'm still trying to build a card. I'll have it out on my twitter soon.

If you do gamble, please do so responsibly.