I am so mad that we're essentially half way through the season. I'll just be in denial. But in the meantime…hello Knoxville! I'm embarrassingly excited to buy myself checkered overalls for the weekend. And hopefully I'll be rocking the white and red striped pants next weekend in Bloomington with all of you. Here are two really sweet hoodie deals for this weekend. If you want to see the college football show AND have a Pup Punk performance in Indiana next weekend, you'll look at the latter one. But without further-ado, may your team cover and all your bets win. My picks are at the bottom.
#12 Oklahoma State (5-0) at #25 Texas (4-2)
Matchup: In 2020, Texas won 41-34 at OK. In 2019, Texas won 36-30 at home. In 2018, Ok State won 38-35 at home.
The L8 meetings in Texas have gone under. The underdog has covered the L4. Since 2020 regular season, when a team with the lower ranking is favored, the under is 8-3.
Ok State has the #24 scoring defense at 18.6 ppg, #12 rushing defense at 91 ypg, and the #19 total defense at 305.2 ypg. Texas has the #5 scoring offense at 44.5 ppg, #9 rushing offense at 245.17 ypg, and the #18 total offense at 480 ypg. But the #110 rushing defense at 198.17 ypg and the #106 total defense at 439 ypg. (Head to head to scoring, rushing, and total.)
Oklahoma State: Coming off of a bye week. The week before they beat Baylor 24-14. Spencer Sanders threw 3 interceptions, yet Ok State still outpaced Baylor by 120+ yards. The difference was made by Ok State’s good run game on both sides of the ball. Jaylen Warren had 125 yards. They held Baylor’s #6 rushing attack to only 107 yards.
L5 away games went under. As an away underdog the under is 6-1, and are 6-2 ATS. As an underdog, the L7 have gone under. In ranked matchups, the L5 games have gone under. Against ranked teams, the L6 have gone under. In all games since 2020, the under is 10-5-1.
Texas: Coming off of a 55-48 loss to Oklahoma. Texas allowed OU to come back from being down 28-7, which was their second biggest comeback in program history. WR Xavier Worthy had 261 yards with 2 TDs, RB Bijan Robinson had 137 yards for 1 TD. The week before, Texas beat TCU 32-27.
After a loss, the over is 4-1. Since 2020, in all games the over is 11-5. When favored by less than a TD, the under is 5-1. As a favorite, are 5-1 ATS.
#11 Kentucky (6-0) @ #1 Georgia (6-0)
Matchup: Georgia has won the L11. In 2020, won 14-3 at Kentucky. In 2019, won 21-0 at home. In 2018, won 34-17 at Kentucky.
Kentucky the #23 rushing offense at 214.17 ypg, #19 scoring defense at 17.5, and #18 total defense at 305 ypg. Georgia has the #12 scoring offense at 39.8 ppg, #1 scoring defense at 5.5 ppg, #4 rushing defense at 66.5 ypg, #1 passing defense at 137 ypg, and #1 total defense at 203.5 ypg. (Head to head with rushing and scoring)
Kentucky: Coming off of a 42-21 win over LSU. Kentucky has 475 total yards, of which 330 were rushing yards. Will Levis threw for 3 TDs and ran for 2 more. Both RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Kavosiey Smoke had 100+ yards. The defense struggled to stop LSU’s Tyrion Davis-Price who ran for 147 yards and 2 TDs. It is Kentucky’s first 6-0 start since 1950. While missing key players, Kentucky showed off its offense. The week before, Kentucky beat Florida 20-13.
Are 5-1 ATS on the season. As an underdog, the under is 9-3. As an away team, the under is 8-2. As an away underdog, the under is 6-1 and are 2-5 ATS. Against ranked teams, the under is 7-2. Against SEC teams, the under is 14-8, and are 4-0-1 ATS.
Georgia: Coming off of a 34-10 win over Auburn. Georgia held Auburn to only 46 rushing yards. They kept Bo Nix from doing his signature scampering, and held him to -16 rushing yards. JT Daniels missed another game. The defense is running on all cylinders. Beat Arkansas 37-0 the week before.
Are 5-1 ATS on the season. After a win are 8-4 ATS. As a home favorite are 4-2 ATS, and the over is 4-2. After a win, the over is 8-4. At home, the over is 4-1. Against SEC teams, are 4-1 ATS, and the over is 9-1.
#13 Ole Miss (4-1) @ Tennessee (4-2)
Matchup: Last met in 2014 where Ole Miss won 34-3 at home, but the game has been vacated.
Ole Miss has the #4 scoring offense at 46.2 ppg, #5 rushing offense at 259.6 ypg, #19 passing offense at 302 ypg ,and #2 total offense at 561.6 ypg BUT the #108 rushing defense at 193.6 ypg, and the #102 total defense at 432.2 ypg.
Tennessee has the #7 scoring offense at 41.5 ppg, #6 rushing offense at 235.67 ypg, #19 total offense at 474 ypg.
#4 vs. #7 scoring offense. #2 vs #19 total offense.
Ole Miss: Coming off of a shootout 52-51 win over Arkansas. There were 1,287 total yards and 14 TDs in the game. 2 RBs had over 100 yards each. Arkansas was stopped on a 2 point conversion. Arkansas struggled to stop the run, allowing Ole Miss to have 324 rushing yards. Matt Corral averaged 13.7 ypp and had 94 rushing yards, had 2 TDs and ran for 2 more. Lost to Alabama 42-21 the week before.
Against SEC teams, are 4-7 ATS, and haven’t covered the L4. After a win, the over is 9-2. As a favorite, the over is 6-3. In regular season games, the over is 9-5.
Tennessee: Coming off of a 45-20 win over South Carolina. Tennessee split between the pass and rush pretty evenly. RB Tiyon Evans (left in the 3rd due to injury) and WR Velus Jones Jr. both had 100+ yard games. For the first time since 2016, Tennessee has scored 40+ points in back-to-back SEC games. Hendon Hooker has thrown at least 2 TD passes in the L5 games. Beat Mizzou 62-24 the week before.
Over is 4-1 in their L5. Lost SU their L6 against ranked teams, went 1-5 ATS, and the under is 5-1. Since last year, they’re 1-3 ATS and the under is 3-1 as a home underdog. As an underdog, the under is 5-3. After a win, are 1-4 ATS.
Auburn (4-2) @ #17 Arkansas (4-2)
Matchup: Auburn has won the L5. In 2020, won 30-28 at home. In 2019, won 51-10 at Arkansas. In 2018, won 34-3 at home. Revenge game for Arkansas after last year.
Over is 6-1 in the L7. Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the L8. Last year Arkansas covered, breaking an Auburn 4-0 ATS run. This is the first time since 2015 that Arkansas is favored.
Auburn has the #24 rushing defense at 106.17 ypg, and #26 scoring defense at 19.2 ppg. Arkansas has the #10 rushing offense at 244.83 ypg, #6 passing defense at 156 ypg. (Head to head with rushing.)
Auburn: Coming off of a 34-10 loss to Georgia. Auburn was held to only 46 rushing yards. They kept Bo Nix from doing his signature scampering, and held him to -16 rushing yards. Auburn has been the first team to score an offensive TD on Georgia’s 1st team defense. They beat LSU 24-19 the week before.
As an away team, the L8 have gone under. As an away team and after a loss, have covered the L6; they were favored in 5 of those. As an away underdog, the L5 have gone under. When an underdog to a ranked team, the under is 5-1. When visiting a ranked team, the L5 have gone under. When playing a ranked team, are 1-6 ATS. When an underdog, are 1-6 ATS.
Arkansas: Coming off of a shootout loss to Ole Miss, 52-51. There were 1,287 total yards and 14 TDs in the game. Arkansas allowed 2 RBs to have over 100 yards. Arkansas was stopped on a 2 point conversion. Arkansas struggled to stop the run, allowing Ole Miss to have 324 rushing yards. KJ Jefferson threw for 3 TDs and ran 3 more in. Arkansas lost to Georgia 37-0 the week before.
Are 5-1 ATS this year. At home, are 6-2 ATS. After a loss, the under is 6-2. Since 2020, are 12-4 ATS in all games. Against SEC schools, the under is 8-5. The 3 home games this year have gone over. The L5 home games against SEC teams have gone under.
My Week 7 Plays:
Kentucky TT u9.5🔒
- Don't anyone accuse me of taking chalk picks EVER. Everyone on Pick Ems gasped/laughed at me when I said it. This is a nuts on the table one and I'll be the first to admit it. It's also based on that I just didn't like anything else. Kentucky loves to run the ball and Georgia just won't let that happen. Additionally Auburn has a much better offense than Kentucky does, and look at what Georgia did to them. Ride at your own risk and positive vibes only.
Ok State/Texas o59.5
Texas Tech -16.5
Michigan St -4