Virginia Tech, we're coming for you. I can't wait, despite having lost to VT in our season opener. Hopefully you guys like coming to those as much as I do. I'm a mush and love college football season, so sue me. Moving on. Below is the same sheet that Dave, Big Cat, and Rico get for Pick Ems, and my picks are at the bottom. May your team cover and all your bets win.
#6 Oklahoma vs. #21 Texas, 12pm
Matchup: OU has won the L3. In 2020, won 53-45 in 4OT. In 2019, won 34-27. In 2018, won 39-27.
When OU comes into the matchup with no losses, they haven’t covered the L4, and lost 3 of them. Texas is 7-2 ATS in the L9; but the 2 losses have come in the last 3 meetings.
Oklahoma has the #7 rush defense at 83.4 ypg and Texas has the #5 rush offense at 268.6 ypg. Texas has the #5 scoring offense at 43.8 ppg, and the #21 total offense 472.8 ypg. Oklahoma has the #15 scoring offense at 38.4 ppg.
Oklahoma: Coming off of a 37-31 win over Kansas State. Rattler was 22/25 for 88%. OU won despite having 85 yards in penalties and allowing 3 4th down conversions.The week before they beat WVU 16-13.
Haven’t covered the L3 and are 1-4 ATS on the season. Have covered the L4 against ranked teams, and covered the L3 at neutral sites. Have SU won the L4 games against ranked teams. Against B12 teams, the under is 4-1 in the L5.
Texas: Coming off of a 32-27 win over TCU. They did have 97 yards of penalties, but were assisted by getting 3 TOs from TCU. RB Bijan Robinson is #2 with 130.4 ypg. Against TCU, Robinson ran for 216 of the team’s total 272 rushing yards. Texas has scored on 15 of 17 drives of Casey Thompson’s 2 starts. Beat Texas Tech 70-35 the week before.
Have covered the L3 and are 4-1 ATS on the season, and are on a 6-1 ATS run. Since 2019, are 4-1 ATS at neutral site games. The under is 6-2 against ranked teams.
#13 Arkansas @ #17 Ole Miss, 12pm
Matchup: In 2020, Arkansas won 33-21 at home. In 2019, Ole Miss won 31-17 at home. In 2018, Ole Miss won 37-33 at Arkansas.
Arkansas in 7-1 ATS in the L8. Going back to 2002, when both teams come off of a loss, Arkansas has covered the L8.
Arkansas has the #19 rush offense at 223.8 ypg, the #2 passing defense at 129.8 ypg, and the #10 total defense at 282.8 ypg. Ole Miss has the #5 scoring offense at 44.8 ppg, #10 rushing offense at 243.5 ypg, #16 passing offense at 308 ypg, and #3 total offense at 551.5 ypg. (head to head at pass and total)
Arkansas: Coming off of a 37-0 loss to Georgia. They had 9 first downs, only 162 total yards, and 101 yards in penalties. Treylon Burks was limited to 3 receptions. Georgia had 273 rushing yards. Georgia played without their starting QB. Arkansas beat Texas A&M 20-10 the week before.
Since 2020, are 11-4 ATS in all games, 4-2 ATS after a loss, 4-2 ATS as an away underdog, and 6-3 ATS against ranked teams.
Over is 4-2 as an away underdog. Under is 8-4 against SEC teams, and 5-1 after a loss. Have SU loss the L5 games as an away underdog.
Ole Miss: Coming off of a 42-21 loss to Alabama. Ole Miss was held to 291 total yards, after averaging 635.3 ypg. Had only 78 rushing yards. Alabama fed it 36 times to RB Brian Robinson Jr who rushed for 171 yards and 4 TDs; he couldn’t be stopped. Ole Miss was 12/14 of 4th down conversions before this game, but were only 2/5 in it. Beat Tulane 61-21 the week before.
Over is 3-1 as a home favorite.
As a home favorite are 4-1-1 ATS.
#2 Georgia @ #18 Auburn, 3:30pm
Matchup: Georgia has won the L4. In 2020, won 27-6 at home. In 2019, won 21-14 at Auburn. In 2018, won 27-10 at home.
The L4 have gone under, and 7-1 in the L8. Georgia has covered the L4 and is 7-1 ATS in the L8.
Georgia has the #8 scoring offense at 41 ppg, #1 scoring defense at 4.6 ppg, #4 rushing defense at 70.6 ypg, #1 passing defense at 110 ypg, and the #1 total defense at 180.6 ypg. Auburn has the #11 scoring offense at 40 ppg, #13 rushing offense at 238.2 ypg, #17 total offense at 478 ypg, #17 scoring defense at 16.2 ppg, #8 rushing defense at 86 ypg, and #21 total defense at 299 ypg. (head to head with scoring, rushing, total)
Georgia: Coming off of a 37-0 win over Arkansas. 4 guys had 10+ rushes, for a team total of 273 yards. JT Daniels didn’t play, so Stetson Bennett started and had 72 yards. They held Arkansas to 162 total yards. Their first team defense hasn’t allowed a TD yet this season. Georgia beat Vandy 62-0 the week before.
As an away favorite, are 8-2 ATS. After a win, the over is 8-3. As an away team, the over is 4-2. Against SEC teams, the over is 6-1. Have won the L10 SU as an away favorite.
Auburn: Coming off of a 24-19 win over LSU. LSU was held to 11 rushing yards on 26 carries. Bo Nix had 74 rushing yards, in the Bo Nix scramble fashion. It was Auburn’s first win at LSU since 1999. LSU admitted they couldn’t block to help the run game. Auburn beat Georgia State 34-24 the week before.
Against ranked teams, are 1-5 ATS. As an underdog, are 1-5 ATS.
In all games since 2020, the under is 10-6. Against SEC teams the under is 9-2. After a win the under is 7-2. As an underdog the under is 4-3. L4 home games went over. Against top 10 teams, the under is 10-2.
#4 Penn State @ #3 Iowa, 4pm
Matchup: In 2020, Iowa won 41-21 at PSU, and broke a PSU 6 game win streak. In 2019, PSU won 17-12 at Iowa. In 2018, PSU won 30-24 at home.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the L5.
PSU has the #3 scoring defense at 12 ppg. Iowa has the #116 total offense at 325 ypg, #2 scoring defense at 11.6 ppg, #11 rushing defense at 87.2 ypg, and the #8 total defense at 271.6 ypg. (#2 vs. #3 scoring defenses)
Penn State: Coming off of a 24-0 win over Indiana. They held Indiana to 69 rushing yards and 264 total yards, while having 408 total yards themselves. PSU created 2 TOs and forced 8 punts. Beat Villanova 38-17 the week before.
Are 4-1 ATS on the season, and are on a 8-1 ATS run. After a win, are 6-1 ATS. Going back to 2017, are 4-1 ATS as an away underdog.
Under is 4-1 on the season. Since 2020, in all games the under is 8-5-1. The under is 4-0 as an away underdog. As an away team, the under is 10-5. As an underdog, the under is 5-1-1. Against B10 teams, the under is 18-10-1.
Iowa: Coming off of a 51-14 Friday night win over Maryland. They held Maryland to 97 rushing yards, out of 271 total yards. Iowa forced 7 TOs, 6 of them were interceptions. Spencer Petras threw for 3 TDs and ran for 2 more. Iowa beat Colorado State 24-14 the week before.
Are on a 6-1 ATS run and the under is 5-1. Last game broke the 5 game under streak. Have covered the L6 against a ranked team. After a win are 7-2 ATS. Against B10 teams are 7-2-1 ATS. All games since 2020, are 9-3-1 ATS.
Since 2020, in all games the under is 9-4. Under is 11-2-1 as the home team. Under is 8-2-1 as the home favorite. L4 at home against a ranked team have gone under. After a win the under is 6-3. Since 2015, as a home favorite the under is 20-13-1.
LSU @ #16 Kentucky, 7:30pm
Matchup: In 2014, LSU won 41-3 at home.
LSU has the #19 passing offense at 303 ypg, but the #128 rushing offense at 70.6 ypg. Kentucky has the #20 scoring defense at 16.8 ppg, #27 passing defense at 180.2 ypg. #25 rushing defense at 104.2 ypg, and the #11 total defense at 284.4 ypg. (Head to head with passing.)
LSU: Coming off of a 24-19 loss to Auburn. LSU was held to 11 rushing yards on 26 carries. No one could tackle Bo Nix as he scrambled all over the field. It was Auburn’s first win at LSU since 1999. LSU admitted they couldn’t block to help the run game. LSU beat Mississippi State 28-25 the week before.
Are 6-1 ATS after an ATS loss. Are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog. Are 4-1 ATS in their L5 road games.
Kentucky: Coming off of a 20-13 upset win over Florida. Kentucky only had 224 yards, of which 87 were passing, to Florida’s 382 yards. Florida gave up 115 yards in penalties. RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. is #6 with 124.2 ypg. Will Levis was 7/17 for 87 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT. Kentucky into the game with a 54% 3rd down conversion rate, but was only 1/8 in this game. Beat South Carolina 16-10 the week before.
Are 4-1 ATS for the year. Are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite. Are 10-5 ATS after a win. Are 4-0 ATS against SEC teams. Against SEC teams at home, are 5-1 ATS. Against a team win a winning record at home, are 6-1 ATS.
As a home favorite the over is 6-1. After a win the under is 5-3.
#9 Michigan @ Nebraska, 7:30pm
Matchup: In 2018, Michigan won 56-10 at home.
Michigan has the #12 scoring offense at 39.8 ppg, #112 passing offense at 181.6 ypg, #7 rushing offense at 255 ypg, #6 scoring defense at 12.8 ppg, #17 passing defense at 170.6 ypg, and #14 total defense at 285.8 ypg. Nebraska has the #14 rushing offense at 235.5 ypg, #11 total offense at 502 ypg, and the #13 scoring defense at 15.5 ppg. (Head to head with scoring and total, Neb wins passing, both top rushing.)
Michigan: Coming off of a 38-17 win at Wisconsin. They held Wisconsin to 210 total yards, of which 43 were from rushing. They’re using the tandem of RB Hassan Haskins and RB Blake Corum to run the ball. Corum is #17 in rushing with 104.2 ypg. Michigan beat Rutgers 20-13 the week before.
Are 4-1 ATS for the year. Are 2-6 ATS against B10 teams. Are 4-2 ATS as an away favorite. The L4 away games have gone over.
Nebraska: Coming off of a 56-7 win over Northwestern. Nebraska had 657 total yards, 427 of which were rushing yards. They held Northwestern to only 37 rushing yards. Adrian Martinez was 11/17 with 1 TD, and rushed for 3 more. They held Northwestern scoreless after the 1st quarter. Lost to Michigan State 23-20 in OT the week before.
Have covered the L5 games. Have lost the L16 games SU against ranked teams. Are 5-2 ATS as an underdog. Against a ranked team at home, the over is 4-1 and are 1-4 ATS. Against a top 10 team at home, are 0-4 ATS. Under is 9-2 as an underdog. Since 2019, all games are 16-8-2 for the under.
#1 Alabama @ Texas A&M, 8pm
Matchup: Alabama has won the L8. In 2020, won 52-24 at home. In 2019, won 47-28 at A&M. In 2018, won 45-23 at home.
The L3 have gone over.
Alabama has the #3 scoring offense at 45.6 ppg, #21 passing offense at 299.6 ypg, #26 total offense at 463 ypg, #T24 passing defense at 177.2 ypg, and the #17 total defense at 289 ypg. Texas A&M has the #101 scoring offense at 23.4 ppg, #5 scoring defense at 12.6 ppg, #T24 passing defense at 177.2 ypg. (Both have same passing D, head to head with scoring)
Alabama: Coming off of a 42-21 win over Ole Miss. Ole Miss was held to 291 total yards, after averaging 635.3 ypg, and had only 78 rushing yards. Alabama fed it 36 times to RB Brian Robinson Jr who rushed for 171 yards and 4 TDs; he couldn’t be stopped. Ole Miss was 12/14 of 4th down conversions before this game, but were only 2/5 in it. Beat Southern Miss 63-14 the week before.
Over is 4-2 as an away favorite. Have won the L99 SU over unranked teams. Over is 8-5 against SEC teams.
Are 9-4 ATS against SEC teams. Are 12-6 ATS as a favorite.
Texas A&M: Coming off of a 26-22 loss to Mississippi State. They allowed MSU to have 438 total yards, while A&M only had 297. RB Isaiah Spiller rushed for 100 yards, and is the most successful ball mover. The offense is struggling without Haynes King. Calzada has 5 TDs and 4 INTs so far this season. They lost to Arkansas 20-10 the week before.
The under is 4-1 on the season. Hasn’t SU lost 3 in a row since 2014. The L4 as a home underdog have gone over. In regular season games since 2020, the under is 9-5. Against ranked teams, are 3-7 SU.
Georgia -15 🔒
Penn State/Iowa u41.5
Penn State +2
Auburn TT u14.5
Oregon St -3.5
Oregon State -3.5
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