This slate is fantastic. There are also so many games that didn't even make this list, like Oklahoma Kansas State, Florida Kentucky, and Ohio State Rutgers to name a few. I hope there is chaos this weekend. Though Georgia is my favorite to win it all, so hope there is no chaos there. That said, I'm staying so far away from that game gambling wise. Can read it all or scroll to the game you want. But regardless, here's hoping all of our picks win. Week 5 is going to be glorious.
#8 Arkansas at #2 Georgia, 12pm
Matchup: Georgia has won the L2 meetings, going back to 2014. In 2020, they won 37-10 at Arkansas. Public and money like Arkansas. Public likes the over, money loves the over.
Georgia has the #1 scoring defense at allowing 5.8 ppg, #7 rush defense at 69.5 ypg, #2 pass defense at 115.8 ypg, and #1 total defense. Georgia is #5 in sacks allowed at 0.5 pg. Arkansas has the #8 rushing offense at 261 ypg. Arkansas has the #8 pass defense at 144.3 ypg, and #12 total defense at 267.3 ypg.
Arkansas: Coming off of a 20-10 upset win over Texas A&M. QB KJ Jefferson was injured in the game, but seems good to go for Saturday. He averaged 12.9 yards per throw. They held A&M to 272 total yards. Had an earlier impressive win over Texas 40-21.
Are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 for the over. Since 2020, are 11-3 ATS in all games, 6-2 ATS against ranked teams, and 8-3 ATS against SEC teams.
As an away underdog, are 4-1 ATS, are on a 1-11 SU run, and the over is 4-0.
Against SEC teams the under is 12-7, but as an away underdog the over is 4-1
Georgia: Coming off of a 62-0 win at Vanderbilt. They held Vandy to 77 total yards, and only 4 first downs. They’re 4-0 on the year.
Are 3-1 ATS and 3-1 for the over. The over is 7-2 in the L9 games.
As a home favorite, the over is 4-1 and against SEC teams the over is 6-0.
#7 Cincinnati at #9 Notre Dame, 2:30pm
Matchup: Haven’t met since 1900. Notre Dame hired Cincy’s DC Marcus Freeman this year. Money is split on spread, loves the over and Cincy ML.
Notre Dame has the #122 rushing offense at 80 ypg, and are tied for #1 in interceptions. Notre Dame is #129 in sacks allowed with 5 pg.
Cincinnati: Coming off of a bye week. The week earlier they had a comeback win at Indiana that was assisted by Michael Penix breaking down in the 2nd half. They didn’t look like a CFP team in the first half.
Are 2-1 ATS, and the over is 2-1. Have SU won the L8 as an away favorite, and their L30 as a favorite.
As an away favorite, the over is 5-1. Against ranked teams the under is 8-1. After a bye, the over is 4-1. (If the line shifts, as an underdog the under is 10-0).
Against ranked teams, are 6-2 ATS. Against non-con teams, are 8-3 ATS. (If the line shifts, as an underdog they’re 5-1 ATS.) With a rest advantage, are 1-6 ATS, and even going back to 2014 they’re 9-16 ATS.
Notre Dame: Coming off of a 41-13 win over Wisconsin. The game was close until late in the 4th when Wisconsin buckled and gave up 31 points. Jack Coan left the game with an injury and Drew Pyne took over. Coan is expected to be ready this weekend. Notre Dame only had 9 rushing yards, whereas Wisconsin had 75. Wisconsin had 5 turnovers, 4 of which were interceptions.
Are 2-2 ATS, and the over is 3-1. Have SU won their L24 home games and won their L15 with a rest disadvantage.
Against ranked teams, are 11-3 ATS. As an underdog, are 4-1 ATS.
Over is 6-1 after holding a team to under 20 points.
#12 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama, 3:30pm
Matchup: Alabama has won the L5. In 2020, won 63-48 at Ole Miss. In 2019, won 59-31 at home. In 2018, won 62-7 at Ole Miss. Money likes Ole Miss and the under.
The over is 5-1 in the L6 meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the L7.
Ole Miss has the #1 scoring offense at 52.7 ppg, and Alabama is #4 with 46.5 ppg. Ole Miss has the #4 rushing offense at 298.67 ypg, and the #10 passing offense at 339.7 ypg; which results in the #1 total offense.
Ole Miss: Coming off of a bye week. The week prior they beat Tulane 61-21. Per the stats above, their offense is firing on all cylinders. Their defense seems to have taken a step up from last year, which was a low bar, but this game will be their first test.
Are 3-0-1 ATS this year.
As an away underdog, are 4-1 ATS. Against ranked teams, are 5-2 ATS. After a bye, are 2-4 ATS.
After a win, the over is 8-0. Against ranked teams, the over is 5-2.
Alabama: Coming off of a 63-14 win over Southern Miss. Bryce Young did have an interception, but averaged 15.2 yards per throw. Are averaging only 151.8 rushing ypg, so they’re a predominantly throwing team. In their 31-29 win over Florida the week before, they looked susceptible for the first time.
Has scored 30+ points in 30 straight games. As a home favorite, are 6-1 ATS. With a rest disadvantage, are 6-0 ATS.
As a home favorite, the over is 5-2. Against SEC teams, the over is 8-4. Since 2020, in regular season games the over is 10-5.
#22 Auburn at LSU, 9pm
Matchup: In 2020, Auburn won 48-11 at home. In 2019, LSU won 23-20 at home. In 2018, LSU won 22-21 at Auburn.
The L3 meetings have gone under. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the L5. Over is 4-1 in the L5 at LSU.
Auburn has the #9 rushing offense with 257 ypg, LSU has the #122 at 80 ypg. LSU is tied #1 for sacks/sacks pg.
Auburn: Coming off of a close win against Georgia State. Bo Nix was benched for TJ Finley who led the comeback after being down 24-12. They allowed Georgia State to rush for 267 yards. They lost at Penn State the week before 28-20.
The over is 3-1 this year. As an away team the under is 11-2-1, and as an away underdog the under is 5-1-1. Since 2020, the under is 6-0 as the away team. After a win, the under is 6-2.
As an underdog, are 0-5 ATS, and 0-3 ATS as an away underdog.
LSU: Coming off of a 28-25 win over Mississippi State. They let MSU have a late comeback after being up 28-10. LSU only had 63 rushing yards. LSU’s only loss is at UCLA 38-27.
Against SEC teams, are 7-4 ATS. Against teams with a winning record, are 1-6 ATS.
Since 2020, at home the over is 5-1, as a home favorite the over is 3-1, and against ranked teams the over is 3-1.
#14 Michigan at Wisconsin, 12pm
Matchup: In 2020, Wisconsin won 49-11 at Michigan. In 2019, Wisconsin won 35-14 at home. In 2018, Michigan won 38-13 at home.
The L3 meetings have gone over. The favorite is 4-0 ATS. Wisconsin has covered the L6 meetings at home going back to 2001.
Michigan has the #5 rushing offense at 290.75 ypg, and Wisconsin has the #1 rushing defense at allowing 23 ypg. MIchigan has the #116 pass offense at 164 ypg. Michigan has the #4 scoring defense at allowing 11.8 ppg. Wisconsin has the #2 total defense at 210.3 ypg. Michigan is #3 in sacks allowed at 0.25 pg.
Michigan: Coming off of a 20-13 win over Rutgers. Michigan went scoreless in the 2nd half while allowing Rutgers to score 10. It was a better showing against Rutgers compared to last year’s 3OT win, but still wasn’t pretty.
Are 3-1 ATS and the under is 3-1 for the year. Are 0-19 SU as an underdog, if the current line stands. As an away team the over is 6-2, and after a win the under is 4-1.
Are 1-6 ATS against B10 teams. As an underdog (+1 as of Monday) are 1-5 ATS.
Wisconsin: Coming off of a 41-13 loss to Notre Dame.The game was close until late in the 4th when Wisconsin buckled and gave up 31 points. Notre Dame only had 9 rushing yards, whereas Wisconsin had 75. Wisconsin had 5 turnovers, 4 of which were interceptions by Mertz. This joins their earlier loss to Penn State.
Are 0-5 SU and ATS against ranked teams.
After a loss, are 1-6 ATS. Against B10 teams, are 2-5 ATS. Since 2020, in regular season games, are 3-6 ATS. After a loss, the under is 4-0. Against ranked teams, the under is 4-1. At home, the under is 4-1.
#21 Baylor at #19 Oklahoma State, 7pm
Matchup: In 2020, Ok State won 42-3 at Baylor. In 2019, Baylor won 45-27 at Ok State. In 2018, Baylor won 35-31 at home. Money likes Ok State to cover, the over, and Baylor ML.
Ok State is 9-2 ATS in meetings at home. Home team is 13-6 ATS. Baylor has the #6 rushing offense at 273.25 ypg.
Baylor: Coming off of their first win over a ranked team in a while, with a 31-29 win over Iowa State. Baylor had 282 yards, whereas ISU had 479.
Have covered and gone over in their L3. Are 1-16 SU against ranked teams, they had their one win last week over #14 Iowa State. Are 2-14 SU as an away underdog.
As an underdog, are 13-5-2 ATS. As an away underdog are 6-2-2 ATS. After a win, are 12-4 ATS. Against ranked opponents, are 5-2 ATS. As an away team, are 7-3-2 ATS.
As an away team the under is 5-2. As an away underdog, the under is 3-1. Against ranked teams, the under is 5-2.
Oklahoma State: Coming off of a 31-20 win over Kansas State. OK State only averaged 3.2 rushing yards per carry. They held KSU to 62 rushing yards. RB Jaylen Warren is still the first option for this offense.
Since 2020, in all games the under is 9-5-1. Against ranked teams, the under is 6-3. Against B12 teams, the under is 12-7. Since 2019, in regular season games the under is 16-9-1. Against ranked teams, are 6-3 ATS. As a home favorite, are 3-5 ATS. After an ATS win, are 6-1-1 ATS.
- A&M/Miss St u46.5🔒
- Nebraska/Northwestern u51.5
- Baylor/Ok State u48
- Notre Dame ML
- Ole Miss +14.5
- Alabama/Ole Miss o78.5
- Michigan +2.5
- Auburn/LSU u55.5
- Texas/TCU o66
- Army -7.5
- Boston College +16
- Bowling Green +16.5
- Western Kentucky +10.5
If you do gamble, please do so responsibly. May your teams win AND cover this weekend.