This blog post brings me no joy to write. There’s no team in America I would rather cheer against on Saturday than Brandon Walker’s Mississippi State Bulldogs and their annoying cowbells.
The Bulldogs are a 2.5 point home underdog to LSU on Saturday at Noon Eastern. I love Mississippi State in this spot for three reasons.
1. Mississippi State In Bounce Back Spot
The Bulldogs lost in Memphis last week on a more than controversial call.
Mississippi State was a 3.5 point road favorite in that game. I ALWAYS take teams that lose outright as a road favorite as a home underdog the following week. I have been following this trend for over 20 years.
2. Road Team -2.5 is Sketchy Line
Las Vegas is baiting people with this line. To the naked eye, a gambler thinks they can bet on better team and all they have to do is win by a field goal. If it looks too good to be true, it is. Any time I see road team by 2.5 points an alarm bell goes off in my head.
3. Mike Leach Teams Are Ferocious Underdogs
Going back to his time at Texas Tech and Washington State, Leach teams flourish in underdog role and struggle as a favorite. So far this season that trend has held. State beat LA Tech 35-34 as a 21 point favorite and lost as 3.5 point fave in Memphis. They smashed NC State as 1.5 point home underdog. Good thing for Leach is his team will be an underdog in the SEC for years to come.
4. LSU OL Struggling
Mississippi State is notoriously tough up front on the defensive line. LSU’s offensive line has not been able to block anybody this season and was exposed at UCLA week 1.
5. State Home Field Edge
LSU hates playing early kicks and is known for playing well at night. An 11am start with 50,000 cowbells clanging in their ears is not optimal.
LSU star CB Derek Stingley got hurt in practice this week and looks to be out with a foot injury. Stingley missed week 1 last year and State torched the LSU secondary for over 600 yards.
I hope I am wrong and the Tigers roar. As a gambler, I always strive to be impartial. All of my logic points to a Bulldog win on Saturday.
While I am picking against LSU this week, I am still backing the boot for Hurricane Ida relief. Buy shirts here to help!