Weak 4... get the apple baskets ready
Harry Shepherd. Getty Images.There's always one week of college football that doesn't have it. For whatever reason, the way the wind blows and the schedule aligns- the slate on the gridiron leaves something to be desired. Somewhere over the course of time, it affectionately gained the name "apple picking weekend."
Think about it. From September to essentially January, every Saturday and Sunday males 21 to 40 sit in their house and watch college football and pro football until there eyes bleed, and they wouldn't have it any other way. Their significant others are amazed every year that this can be normal behavior, and once every year as a compromise - the girlfriend or the wife wins a battle of wills and convinces the boyfriend or husband to an outdoor activity- hence apple picking weekend. It's a shitty slate of games, so the boys don't miss much, and the girls get to be outside and enjoy something other than staring at a screen. Everybody wins.
This is very much apple picking weekend… weak 4 as I call it.
I have never gone apple picking and Mrs.Bosco vows it's an activity she hates… so everyone in my house wins as well.
First let's recap last week.
The questions were :
- bounce back spot : Wyoming -6.5 … WINNER
- home dog : San Diego State +8.5 … WINNER
- _ isn't as good as everyone says : Indiana … Cincy -4 … Winner
- _ isn't as bad as everyone says : Ohio St team total Over 42.5 … lost
Another good week of picks (3-1) via the questions.
Here's this week's batch of questions :
- I think is the unranked team who will go upset a ranked team
So this one is much slimmer pickings than you would think.
Let's cross off :
Georgia -35 @ Vandy, Coastal -30 @ Umass, Iowa -23.5 vs Colorado St, Michigan -20.5 vs Rutgers, Auburn -27.5 vs Georgia St, Florida -19 vs Tennessee , Bama -45 vs Southern Miss, Oklahoma -17 vs WVU, BYU -23 vs USF, Oregon -28.5 vs Arizona, and UNC -12.5 vs GA Tech.
Eliminate the ranked vs ranked matchups, and OK St -6 vs Kansas St because despite what announcers on tv say it can't be an upset if the ranked team is favored !
This leaves us with :
Baylor +7 vs Iowa St
NC ST +10 vs Clemson
Stanford +4.5 vs UCLA
Nebraska +5 @ Michigan St
So we're looking for the best possible outright winner here. Let's do process of elimination from least likely upset to most likely :
-I have seen NC State's struggles vs better competition (sorry Quigs). They looked bad vs Miss St. I think Clemson's D gives them fits even with their offensive struggles and Clemson wins.
- I will not buy Nebraska under any circumstances even with this weird line and a decent showing vs Oklahoma. Pass.
- As much as Stanford has improved, UCLA should not be punished for a loss to a very good Fresno St team (shoutout Pat Hill). I also think Chip Kelly is experienced enough to settle his guys down that while that loss sucks, the conference title chase is the first step to a serious achievement in his rebuild. Bruins bounce back.
- What do we really know about Baylor ? Played a tight one vs Texas St, and then crushed Texas Southern and Kansas. Big deal. Although … does that mean they are in a perfect spot of a team who hasn't had to push itself thus far and has been gearing up the whole month for this game knowing a ranked Iowa St team would be coming to town? Do we love the Iowa St offense that looked like hell vs Iowa when we bet them ? I sure as hell don't. I would back Baylor here by default. The current ML on Barstool Sportsbook sits at : Baylor +215 . If you are looking for the upset pick, that would be the one i suggest.
- vs has over written all over it
I am not on a single total this week. All sides. So let's pick this one together and find a winner.
I bet SMU +9 vs TCU, however after breaking down the numbers. I think the SMU TCU OVER 65 , currently as it sits on Barstool Sportsbook would be my suggestion.
These teams are in a bit of a chirp fest after last year's game wasn't played. :
“No one comes to Texas for Fort Worth. They come for Dallas,” Rashee Rice, a junior receiver at SMU, said about TCU’s home. (Full story) Long story short- the SMU kids are blaming TCU for not finding a way to play last year's game “Freshman year, I didn’t get to play them … sophomore year, after we won that [Iron] Skillet, they were scared to play us,” Rice told reporters on Tuesday.
There's also some resentment for SMU kids feeling like they didn't get recruited by TCU. I do think SMU keeps it close and could potentially win the game. But like I said after looking deeper - I like this over- here's why.
These teams combine to score 82.8 ppg while gaining a combined 1006.7 yards per game.
The defenses allow 36 combined ppg and 729.8 yards per game combined. Respectable, but not immortal.
Lastly, TCU averages 84 plays per game (9th in the country), SMU 75 plays per game (36th in the country). They both can play fast, and with the chirping and the rivalry - no lead is safe , no lead is too much, and no one will go down without a fight. I say over.
- My favorite late game spread is
California +7.5 @ Washington . Very simply, I'm not a believer in Washington . I do however love Justin Wilcox as a dog . He got us a win (shoulda been outright win) vs TCU. He's 19-7 ATS as an underdog. I like the QB Chase Garbers, I think the defense travels and will be in this one right until the end. Bears catching too many.
- unrelated: Is it Apple Picking Weekend ?
Yes. If you have to suck it up for one weekend to miss CFB games this is the one. Suggestion if you do go the the godforsaken apple farm - tape (or DVR for you kids out there) one or two games you may want to watch and fire them up real early on Sunday to fast forward through before NFL kicks off.
Situational Spots
Road Warriors
*Teams on the 2nd game of back to back road games *
SMU @ TCU
Nebraska @ Michigan State
Iowa State @ Baylor
FIU @ Central Michigan
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte
UAB @ Tulane
Kent State @ Maryland
Ohio @ Northwestern
Colorado State @ Iowa
San Jose State @ Western Michigan
Arkansas State @ Tulsa
Troy @ ULM
Look-ahed spots
(teams with a big game on deck)
- Maryland -14 vs Kent St ( vs Iowa next Friday)
- Michigan -20.5 vs Rutgers ( @ Wisconsin next week)
- Alabama -45 vs S.Miss ( vs Ole Miss next week)
- Oregon -29 vs Arizona ( @ Stanford next week)
* I know Stanford is still just decent this year, but The Cardinal has been a thorn in Ducks side forever.
- Auburn -27 vs Georgia St ( @ LSU next week)
Stat Corner
Let's look specifically here at which games will have similar styles. Ie- which game will be primarily played in the air? , which will be played on the ground.
Here's the games with the combined most passing yards :
- Wake Forest / Virginia combined 671.3 passing yards per game
- LSU / Mississippi St combined 664.3 passing yards per game
- Arkansas St / Tulsa combined 658 passing yards per game
- Boise St / Utah St combined 638.7 passing yards per game
- WKU / Indiana combined 636.2 passing yards per game
(For the record App St and Marshall was on this list - and that game went over last night)
Here's the games with the combined most rushing yards :
- Tennessee / Florida combined 557.6 rushing yards per game
- FAU / Air Force combined 510 rushing yards per game
- Miami (OH) / Army combined 498.6 rushing yards per game
- Rutgers / Michigan combined 494.6 rushing yards per game
- Texas A&M / Arkansas combined 467.6 rushing yards per game
Injuries / News
- Florida ST could be down two offensive lineman vs Louisville (Baveon Johnson and Maurice Smith)
The Seminoles could also be without QB Jordan Travis.
- Houston QB Clayton Tune's status is unknown vs Navy
- Utah's Charlie Brewer (Baylor transfer) has left the team
- UNLV could be on a backup QB tonight vs Fresno St .
The best way to get info on injuries is to pick which games you like and hunt down beat writers, depth charts etc *
My full card can be found here : https://twitter.com/Return_Of_RB/status/1441216894200127488?s=20
The Pick Em video is here :
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Please feel free to hit me up with suggestions , ideas , questions etc. The more interactive this space gets the better.
Happy responsible gambling , happy apple picking for all you suckers.