It's week three and while last week wasn't bad, it just wasn't good enough. I've spent some extra time on this weeks games so let's get into it!
Have you ever heard of a team losing a game twice? Well that's exactly what Florida State did in last weeks game vs Jacksonville St. The 26 point favorite just laid down late in the game. Maybe they thought their opponent was inferior, maybe they just weren't mentally there after that overtime loss to Notre Dame. Either way, it's good news for us. This week we are getting a ton of value with the 'Noles. Little late to the party here. This one is already down to 4.5 and +143 at the Barstool Sportsbook. I love the points but I also look for them to spring the road upset at Wake Forest.
Last week I almost pulled the trigger on App State moneyline but I didn't think they could get the outright win. Glad I didn't have to sweat that one. Miami now 0-2 ATS. And 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite. Michigan State and their top 10 rushing offense should be able to run this ball down their throats for four quarters. Slowing down the tempo and keeping this Miami defense on the field. Gimme the plus +6 and a little love +180 on the moneyline.
I saved the biggest dog of the week for last. Boy did Stanford look good at USC last week. Now they have their third straight road game in Nashville before heading home and and face their rival UCLA. Asking them to cover as a 12 point road favorite seems pretty egregious here. Last week Vandy picked up a nice underdog win over Colorado State, let's see if they can't make it two in a row +12 and +375.
Let's get this parlay so we can free roll the rest of the season. $100 pays $3100 at the Barstool sports book.
For reference here are a few other dogs I considered, Virginia +8, Purdue +7, Auburn +6 and Memphis +3.5.
If you need a refresher on how to bet these here is my blog from week one: