Patrick Mahomes Isn't The Best Fantasy QB in 2021

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Fantasy Football Factory continues our positional preview and we had a double dose on today's show with Quarterbacks and Tight Ends. I've gotten a ton of asks for cheat sheets, so here are my Top 25 QBs heading into this upcoming fantasy football season:

25) Trey Lance - Doesn't have the starting gig yet, but once he does, he'll become fantasy relevant. He's got a pretty high floor due to his rushing ability and his passing is already way ahead of projections.

24) Baker Mayfield - He's in a conservative, run-heavy offense but finished a steady-Eddie QB17 in standard scoring last year. But I see him as more of a low end QB2 in SuperFlex leagues.

23) Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben attempted a whopping 40 passes per game last year and finished as QB14 in fantasy. With more of a focus on the run game with the drafting of Najee Harris, hopefully he can do more with fewer attempts.

22) Derek Carr - He took a bit of a step forward last year with 27 passing TDs vs. 9 INTs. He also chipped in 140 rushing yards and 3 spikes. Will he continue to rise? If so, he could be a value. His ADP is QB25, but he finished as fantasy's QB13 last year.

21) Justin Fields - Another guy who doesn't have the starting gig yet, but is expected to have it sooner than later. The Bears actually have some weapons with Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. He is much less of a runner than Lance, but still provides rushing upside to go along with some big time moxey. He was my QB2 coming out of the draft this year just after Trevor Lawrence.

20) Daniel Jones - A lot of people will point to the 11 touchdowns last year and say he stinks. Well from a fantasy perspective, that is atrocious. But in 2019, the kid threw 24 TDs as a rookie. Will he get back there? I'm not sure, but I think he'll be a heck of a lot closer to there than the 11 he put up in 2020.

19) Joe Burrow - His knee was destroyed last year and to think he'll come back from that and be 100% on September 12th seems impossible. So how much will the knee limit him this year? By all accounts he's ahead of schedule and I do expect Cincy to be a lot better in Year 3 under Zac Taylor, but can Burrow be a mid-level QB2 in fantasy? I'll slot him in here one spot above Daniel Jones.

18) Trevor Lawrence - The #1 overall pick has had some up and down moments this pre-season showing flashes of brilliance and also flashes of team disfunction and inepititude. Lawrence is a sneaky good runner that'll get you some points with his feet and while the Travis Etienne injury hurts, he's still got some young weapons with Laviska Shenault, D.J. Chark, and James Robinson.

17) Tua Tagovailoa - The rumor mill is saying Deshaun Watson is going there? I'm not sure about that, but what I do remember is the whole 'Tank for Tua' campaign. I just cannot believe they'd give up on that so soon. I also cannot get his performance against Arizona last year out of my head.

16) Ryan Fitzpatrick - .Talk about an underrated fantasy player. Over his last 18 starts, Fitzmagic averages 20 fantasy points. Pick him up and feel comfortable trotting him out every week as your QB2 in Superflex leagues.

15) Kirk Cousins - Cousins threw a career-high 35 TDs last year and finished as QB11 in fantasy. Can he repeat that performance? That'd be the hope, but we're hedging our bets a little bit so have him at #14.

14) Jameis Winston - Say what you want about this guy, I sure have. He stinks as a football player. I've never been more nervous as a football fan than every drive with this walking turnover chucking it all over the yard. And while his turnovers were his undoing in the NFL, in fantasy football, they didn't hurt him too bad, In fact, in 2019, he finished as QB3 despite throwing 30 INTs. There is major upside here and he's an incredible value 

13) Matt Ryan - Arthur Smith is his new HC and that man turned Ryan Tannehill into a good Quarterback. What can he do with Matt Ryan? The last time he had an elite Offensive mind he was league MVP.

12) Jalen Hurts - I'm hedging a bit here. I see him in a lot of people's Top 10. But I'm not a huge believer in him and the Gardner Minshew trade over the weekend would make me nervous. But with his rushing upside, his ceiling is QB1. He's not as fast as Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, but he does have good escapability. Mintzy though, is quite low on Hurts:

11) Ryan Tannehill - Ryan Tannehill had a dream season last year that resulted in a 3-year $90M extension in the off-season. He finished ahead of Lamar Jackson in fantasy, ending as QB7. But his OC has flown south to Atlanta and I'm not sure he can repeat his performance. Plus, if you're drafting for the Playoffs, his schedule is brutal. Week 15: @ Pittsburgh, Week 16 vs. San Francisco (Thursday Night Football), Week 17: vs. Miami, so I'd be concerned about having him as my every-week QB1.

10) Justin Herbert - This guy burst onto the scene and has every bit of talent that Josh Allen does. He's got a great cast with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler and a new HC in Brandon Staley who once played the Quarterback position growing up. Will he take the next step or will he suffer a sophomore slump?

9) Tom Brady - Can Tom Brady continue to get better in year 22?! For anybody that was watching the third pre-season game against Houston, the Bucs showed off some no huddle and my goodness was it fantastic! If that makes an appearance this season, watch out record books! 

8) Matthew Stafford - This guy threw 26 TDs with a bunch of nobodies up in Detroit last year. Now he goes to LA to be paired with Sean McVay and has Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson, Tutu Atwell, and Van Jefferson to throw to. I have a lot of confidence he'll hit 28 TDs or more.

7) Dak Prescott - I like Dak a lot, but the ankle worries me a bit. I also think given the taste of life without him they'll want to limit his runs. He could pass for a bagillion yards, and Dallas scored a TD 33% of the time he was on the field last year. A lot of the hubbub is built of just scaling that, but I'm not sure that is scalable.

6) Russell Wilson - Mr. Consistency. The only QB with four straight seasons of 30+ TDs in a row. He's got a new OC from the McVay tree in Shane Waldron who could actually 'let Russ cook'. Sky is the limit for him and he's a rock solid QB1. My only concern and why I rank him slightly below Aaron Rodgers is the fantasy playoff schedule is brutal until Championship Week. Week 15 @ LA Rams, Week 16: vs. Chicago, Week 17: vs. Detroit. Can your squad survive Weeks 15 & 16 with Russ at the helm?

5) Aaron Rodgers - He threw 48 TDs last year and was the league MVP. The two prior years he threw for 51 TDs. Is a regression coming? He needs the TDs to be valuable as he doesn't chuck it around as much as you'd think. In fact, he averages only 22 passes per game the past two years. But I still think he's on an F U tour and will have another terrific season.

4) Lamar Jackson -  His floor is so high as he's rushed for over 1,000+ yards each of the past two years. His numbers dipped a little last year, but he still finished as QB8. That's probably his floor again, but he's got a good shot at QB1. 

3) Kyler Murray - He's slight of stature at only 5'10" 207 lbs. and the injury bug caught up to him last year as he hurt his shoulder in Week 9 and then re-injured it in Week 11. After that, his numbers dropped quite a bit, but he still finished as QB3. He'll need to make it through the year, but if he does, he's got a great shot at overall QB1. His playoff schedule is also pretty soft: Week 15: @ Detroit, Week 16: vs. Indianapolis, Week 17: @ Dallas.

2) Patrick Mahomes - Everybody thinks Mahomes is the automatic overall QB1, but he was overall QB4 and finished behind Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, and Josh Allen last year. Mahomes provides rushing upside, but not a ton. He'll get you 200 yards on the ground, 2 scores every year as Andy Reid & co. are trying to protect their best asset. However, based on his TD pass volume, he's got a very high floor (he'll flirt with 5,000+ yards and throw 36-50 TDs), and in turn, is a very safe pick. Just don't take him too early! He's going 21st in one QB leagues!

1) Josh Allen – Allen finished as fantasy's overall QB1 last year and while repeating is definitely difficult, Allen has the setup to get it done. For fantasy purposes, he puts it in the paint both through the air (37 passing TDs) and on the ground (8 rushing TDs). His rushing numbers will be much higher than Mahomes and his rushing TDs give him that edge. Josh Allen is my pick for top fantasy QB this year. 

And be sure to tune in the full QB & TE episode of Fantasy Football Factory with myself & Ben Mintz. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Youtube: