So this Jake Paul fight is going down tonight, and to be honest, there is not much to break down between 2 men that have never been in a ring versus a professional boxer.
Youth, size, and ring experience give Paul a slight edge, so I am taking him with the boosted odds (now +150, thanks to Logan Paul) in the Barstool Sportsbook, WHICH JUST SO HAPPENS TO BE THE OFFICIAL SPORTSBOOK OF TONIGHT'S EVENT, and I am also going to throw a couple of bucks on the fight going to the cards (+600)… My thinking here is, unlike Jake's other opponents, Tyron can make a couple of mistakes and still hang on for 8 rounds.
But all-in-all, this main event isn’t overly interesting to me.
The undercard features some very good fighters along with a handful of bright prospects that I am excited to watch (and bet on)… And those fighters and prospects should be kissing Jake Paul's ass for the amount of promotion he is giving them on this SHOWTIME PPV event.
An event that includes a familiar dynamic duo doing some commentary…
I am going to break down every fight of the evening working backward from the Main Event because that's what I like to do on The 13th Round…
And since I am a gentleman… Ladies first.
I have said this before and have been called a sexist for it, but I don't enjoy watching female fighters.
In fact, the only three I watch consistently are all at the top of the food chain: Ireland's Katie Taylor (35-year-old Lightweight, 18-0, 6 KOs, and won 2012 Olympic gold medal)… Flint, Michigan's Claressa Shields (26-year-old Middleweight, 11-0, 2 KOs, and won 2012 AND 2016 Olympic gold medals)… And Puerto Rico's Amanda Serrano (32-year-old Featherweight, 40-1-1, 30 KOs).
And on tonight's undercard, that last one, Amanda Serrano, will defend her WBC and WBO featherweight belts against WBC super-bantamweight champion Yamileth Mercado (18-2, 5 KOs).
Amanda is a heavy favorite at -2000, and for good reason… She's been a world champion in seven divisions. She's a hard-punching athletic Southpaw who has great technical skills and a knockout rate that is much better than the other two ladies I mentioned above.
All I know about her opponent is that she's Mexican… But that's only because there has been a small focus on the 'Mexico vs Puerto Rico' angle on the days leading up to the fight. And I am being honest again when I say the only way I would know anything about one of Amanda Serrano's opponents would be if she was fighting either Katie Taylor or Claressa Shields.
Still, the Mexico vs Puerto Rico-thing has me thinking we will see Mercado charging forward from bell to bell.
Sounds okay in theory but Yamileth is stepping up from super-bantam for the first time and I don't think she'll have either the size or skill to stop a more talented Southpaw like Amanda from circling away from her while she attacks.
I'm very confident that Amanda will win, but with Mercado never being knocked out in 20 fights, I am not as confident in Serrano scoring the knockout that she promised Jake Paul…
So I will take Serrano by points at +150… Unless they are in bed with me, female's tend to go the distance and finish more often than you would think
What makes the next fight so intriguing is 2 things:
1) It is a veritable coin-flip with the underdog… 26-year-old Southpaw prospect Montana Love (15-0-1, 7 KOs)… At only +150.
2) While the favorite is 28-year-old former IBF super-lightweight titlist Ivan Baranchyk (20-2, 13 KOs)… A pressure fighter who was on the losing end of 2020's Fight of the Year vs José Zepeda. A fight that had 8 knockdowns over 5 rounds.
I implore you to Google that whole bout or at least watch these highlights…
Baranchyk said he has changed his strategy slightly coming into this bout, but I think his old style might prove to be effective against a less-seasoned counterpuncher like Montana Love.
His name is Montana, but he's actually from Cleveland, so there will be some Ohio home crowd love for Love. But keep in mind, this is Montana's first time going 10 rounds in his career, and 10 rounds vs a charging Ivan Baranchyk might be too much for this prospect to handle.
Plus, it got a little chippy at the weigh-in…
I will take Baranchyk -182 with a late stoppage.
Last thing here on this matchup… I was on Sirius Fight Nation's AT THE FIGHTS earlier this week promoting both Rough N' Rowdy and Barstool's participation in tonight's event, and Randy Gordon (former NY State Boxing Commissioner) informed me that there was a small amount of controversy involving this bout since Montana is unvaccinated.
But, as of today, apparently, Ohio State Boxing Commission is still down to fuck, so the fight goes on.
I will blast through the last 3 fights quickly because they are all mismatches…
Junior-middleweight Charles Conwell (15-0, 11 KOs) is another touted prospect from nearby Cleveland on tonight's card who will face undefeated Mexican Juan Carlos Rubio (18-0, 9 KOs).
Conwell's resumé already includes a couple of impressive wins but also was contains in a tragic victory over Patrick Day who suffered a traumatic brain injury during a knockout loss to Charles on October 12, 2019, and died four days later.
I mentioned his opponent is undefeated, but it looks like Rubio's 18 wins came mostly versus "latas de tomate" (tomato cans) in Mexico. Still, Rubio is a southpaw that can fight from the outside which could pair well against a typically aggressive Conwell, but I’d expect Charles will eventually get inside on an over-matched Rubio and secure the win.
On to the heavyweights…
Daniel Dubois (16-1, 15 KOs) is a big Brit… 6'5", 238 pounds.
He was one of the hottest heavyweight prospects until had his eye socket broken by Joe Joyce at the end of 2020.
(and there's the punch that did it)
But Dubois is still only 23, so he has plenty of time to get back into contention, and tonight's fight will be his second in the past 2 months.
His opponent is Joe Cusumano, who I believe was born in Virginia but is now going by the name "Juiseppe Angelo Cusumano" in order to throw a little 'ethnic stank' on his gindaloon persona and perhaps impress an absolutely stunning weigh-in girl…
I will say this about Cusumano… He’s not very good… BUT he's a heavyweight who's never been stopped, so I like Dubois in this one, BUT I am tempted to say it'll go longer than most expect.
Dubois has been a knockout machine for his whole career, but I will pick a round and take the newly proud Italian at least making it into the third (Dubois KO Rounds 3-4 pays +260) before Dubois puts him out.
And the last fight I will mention is also the evening's opener, which pits Tyson Fury's half-brother, Tommy Fury (6-0, 4 KOs) in his first time fighting on US soil, against an MMA fighter I never heard of named Anthony Taylor (0-1).
And to make this circus a little more circus-y, it was revealed on Saturday morning at the official weigh-in that Fury vs Taylor will now be only a four-round affair instead of six due to the fact the British Boxing Board of Control said they would suspend Tommy if he went six rounds.
There has been a lot of talk of Fury’s past opponents… 6 fellas with collectively 19 wins… But the truth is, those 6 opponents are arguably more impressive than the Murderer's Row that Jake Paul has encountered thus far.
And that's all this opening fight is… A potential tune-up for the inevitable Jake Paul Vs Tommy Fury clash that I would expect sometime mid-2022.
Disney Star vs Reality TV Star…
Let's just hope that potential shitshow also has a solid undercard.
Enjoy the fights and take a report.
Also, in conjunction with being named gambling partner for tonight's fight, the Barstool Sportsbook is offering yet another promotion…
Good luck and TAR.