Davante Adams Is NOT The Top Wide Receiver To Draft This Season

Steven Cheah8/25/2021 2:20 PM

Fantasy Football Factory is talking Wide Receivers in today's show. I've gotten a ton of asks for cheat sheets, so here are my Top 25 WRs heading into this upcoming fantasy football season:

Sleeper: Robby Anderson - As I foreshadow the top of my list in this description, Robby Anderson is a deep threat that became a target monster in 2020. 136 targets to be exact, but he saw his 15.0 YPC number he put up the past two years fall to 11.5 last year. If he puts up similar numbers to this past year (95-1,096-3) and gets back to his normal YPC, he'll be a 1,400+ yard WR. He's also got a familiar face throwing him the football in Sam Darnold. Buy low (going at ADP WR35) and reap the rewards!

25) Ja'Marr Chase - He's had a rough pre-season, but he's so talented and didn't play football last year. He's going at ADP WR27, so right around this area. If you're going to draft him, you just have to be patient and do so for Weeks 8 and on and not Weeks 1-4.

24) Jerry Jeudy - Jeudy dealt with way too many drops as a rookie, but from a fantasy perspective, he got a TON of targets. 113 in 2020, which if he can convert more of those, has 1,200+ yards in his future.

23) Brandon Aiyuk - He saw 96 targets last year and Kyle Shanahan is going to try to manufacture him touches. He finished as Fantasy Overall WR33 in 2020, but look for that to go much higher for this YAC monster.

22) Adam Thielen - Thielen had 14 TDs in 2021 after going for 7 & 9 TDs the previous two years. That's likely headed for a regression and he failed to reach 1,000+ yards last year. Justin Jefferson is the Vikings WR to own in fantasy, but obviously much more costly.

21) Julio Jones - Jones is going at WR14 in ADP right now which is wild. He's 32 years old and missed nine games last year. He's also in a new situation. He's replacing Corey Davis and I'm putting Davis' line (65-984-5) as a realistic projection for a full year of Julio in 2021.

20) D.J. Moore - He actually took over the role of deep threat last year for Robby Anderson and averaged 18.1 YPC. But he only has 10 career TDs in three years and is 3/21 on red zone TDs the past two years. Can Sam Darnold help get that up?

19) Chris Godwin - I love Godwin as a player, but he dealt with some injuries last year. He saw 37 fewer targets than the year before, but the Bucs just have so many mouths to feed. Antonio Brown is another option that will produce maybe 2/3 of Godwin's output at less than half the cost.

18) Amari Cooper - Will he be fully healthy all year? I'm not sure about that, which is why I lowered him a bit. He does have an insane connection with Dak Prescott and had a wild 51 targets in four full games with Dak last year. Can they both stay healthy and continue to pile up numbers? And can he hold off CeeDee Lamb as the premiere WR for Dallas?

17) Tyler Lockett - Lockett was a big time boom or bust guy last year with only two 100+ yard games, but he still finished as the Fantasy Overall WR8 in 0.5 PPR leagues. Look for more consistency as Seattle will air it out more this year.

16) Kenny Golladay - Mintzy doesn't have Golladay in his top 25 and he's the perfect opportunity to buy low coming off an injury riddled 2020. His career YPC average is 16.8, so he only needs 60 catches at that clip to exceed 1,000 yards, which you can bet here like I did here. For fantasy purposes, his size (6'4" 214 lbs), hes a red zone monster. Buy low!

15) Robert Woods - He finished 2020 was WR13 last year and with Matthew Stafford at QB, figures to take off. He's had at least 129 targets and 86 catches each of the last three years, so offers a very high floor.

14) Mike Evans - Evans is still a beast. He just turned 28 and very much still in his prime scoring 13 TDs last year. But the Bucs spread the ball around a ton, so be careful with yardage expectations. That being said, he's my LOCK OF THE YEAR at OVER 1,000.5 yards in the Barstool Sportsbook.

Evans set the record with seven consecutive seasons at 1,000+ yards to start his career. He is very aware of that record and in 2020, with 3 games left he was 331 yards short of the record. How did he finish? 6 catches for 110 yards, 10 catches for 181 yards, and 3 catches for 46 yards and would have been even more if he didn't hurt his knee the final game. You can ride with my LOCK OF THE YEAR in the Barstool Sportsbook HERE

13) Cooper Kupp - I LOVE Cooper Kupp this year. Lots of hype around Robert Woods, but I don't understand why Kupp isn't seeing that same level of hype. He's had more 100+ yard games than Woods each of the past two years and more catches in each year too. I get the Woods hype, but Cooper deserves it too! Fantasy's ADP 19 is a great value. He's got a great line in the Barstool Sportsbook too at O/U 1,050.5 yards. I'm hammering the OVER, which you can too here.

12) CeeDee Lamb - I have Lamb over Cooper and we're betting on potential here. He plays primarily in the slot, but he's younger, healthier, and more explosive than Cooper. If Dak stays healthy for the full year, look for 1,200+ yards 10+ TDs from the former Sooner.

11) Allen Robinson - He's had over 150+ targets the past two season and turned over 100+ of them each year into catches. He's. a volume monster no matter who is under center in Chicago. Robinson had a strong 18 red zone targets too, so they look for him in the paint.

10) Keenan Allen - He was eight yards shy of 1,000 yards last year, but still reached 100 catches. The bet here is with Justin Herbert growing as a player, Allen will flourish.

9) Terry McLaurin - Scary Terry had 134 targets last year with Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith chucking him the rock. He only converted 1 reception into a TD on his 12 red zone targets, but I'd look for that to shoot up with better QB play from Fitzmagic.

8) Justin Jefferson - Jefferson burst onto the scene with a silly 88-1,400-7 line as a rookie. He re-wrote the record books and finished as Fantasy's Overall WR6 as a frosh. If he's going to bump into my tier 1, he'll need more red zone targets (only 10 last year). Adam Thielen still dominates that. He had 14 TDs last year.

7) DK Metcalf - He's 6'4" 230 lbs. and runs sub-4.40. The Seahawks bring in former Rams OC Shane Woldren so they'll air it out a bit more this year. Look for Metcalf, who had 129 targets last year to take advantage. This is my beginning of Fantasy WR Tier 1 guys. I could see any of these top 7 finishing as the Overall WR1 and this position group has terrific depth.

6) Stefon Diggs - I'm slightly lower on Diggs who is ADP WR3 in fantasy this year. He's coming off a career year with 166 targets that resulted in 127-1,535-8 line. Sure he could score a few more times, but I can't see his yards going up. So I'm betting on a bit of a regression, but still an elite fantasy WR.

5) A.J. Brown - His is a projection. He finished at Fantasy Overall WR12 in 0.5 PPR last year and he's not a volume guy. Only 106 targets. Will Julio Jones' presence open things up for Brown? That's the idea and if he can get closer to 130-140 targets, he'll be in the conversation for Overall WR1 in fantasy.

4) Calvin Ridley - He averaged 118 YPG without Julio Jones last year, and now Julio is a Tennessee resident. He's an electric route runner and also was 3rd in the NFL in red zone targets with 20. He finished as fantasy's overall WR4 in 0.5 PPR last year, so this isn't a reach at all.

3) Deandre Hopkins - He's averaged 165 targets/year since 2015 and they didn't move much in his first season in the desert as he garnered 160 last year. But I have him this high because he was only 2/13 on converting red zone catches into TDs. There is room to improve and I'm looking at double digit TDs in 2021 to go along with his mountain of targets and yards.

2) Davante Adams - Adams is going as WR1 in ADP right now around pick 8 in Drafts and understandably so. He led the league in red zone targets, had 14 red zone TDs and figures to be a major part of the GB offense again. That being said, 18 TDs in 14 games is bananas! The O/U for him this year is 10.5, which feels very low. I see a regression, but not that bad! I put my money where my mouth is at the Barstool Sportsbook. You can ride with me right here:

For fantasy purposes, picking Adams at overall WR1 is buying at the peak. He also comes with a minor injury flag as much like Dalvin Cook, he continuously has nagging injuries and will miss a couple games each year (missed 2,4,1, and 2 games the past four years). But when he's on the field, there may not be anyone better as a fantasy WR except…

1) Tyreek Hill – Hill is the league's top deep threat, but over the final 11 games, he also became a target monster. He averaged almost 11 targets per game. If you extrapolate that over 17 games, that would be 182 targets. If Tyreek Hill gets that, 2,000+ receiving yards are in reach. He put up an 87-1,276-15 line and added on 123 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs. Remarkably, Hill still hasn't hit his ceiling, which is why I'm putting him at my Overall Fantasy WR1.