For The Celtics To Actually Improve Next Season, It’s Pretty Clear What Has To Happen

Every team in the league has different expectations when it comes to Summer League. Maybe you’re a team that just selected a high prized rookie and you want to see how they look against better competition. Maybe you just won the NBA title and your Summer League roster is filled with guys who won’t make your team but you just want to get a look at guys. 

When it comes to the Celtics and their Summer League appearance, it matters a little more than others and it really highlights one of the biggest aspects of their offseason when you start to look ahead to next season. There were several issues that Brad Stevens had to address this summer. He had to find a new coach. He had to improve their defense. He had to bring in more competent players to round out his bench. All while keeping his financial flexibility for the summer of 2022 when the plan is clearly to go big fish hunting. And while he’s done all of those things, when I look at this roster and the outlook for next season it keeps bringing me back to one key area.

Unless this roster gets real internal improvement from their young players, none of the other offseason moves this year will matter.

We know that when it comes to the ceiling of this team, that’s determined by how the best players will perform. That rests on the shoulders of Tatum, Brown, Horford, Smart etc. But when it comes to this team’s floor? That’s where the young guys come into play and why this Summer League is so important. As we just saw last season, the inconsistent play and availability of Pritchard/Nesmith/Romeo/Grant/Rob was an issue. Having to rely so heavily at times on inexperienced players didn’t exactly work out how we all hoped. Ultimately, and this is just my opinion, whether the Celts are able to get back into the top 4 conversation largely depends on what improvement/development we see from that young group. Not if Josh Richardson can shoot or if Dennis Schroder accepts a certain role. 

So when I look at the Celts Summer League roster, these reps matter. What you’re looking for at this stage are signs of improvement. When it comes to Pritchard/Nesmith, I think it’s safe to say that’s exactly what we’re watching. They look great. Romeo….is still a question. That’s fine, there’s more games to be played, but I want to help explain to any Celts fan reading this blog why the Pritchard/Nesmith/Romeo development is going to be so important next season. 

While we don’t know what Ime’s rotations might be, if you look at how things were set up last season we saw the majority of Pritchard/Nesmith’s minutes coming with Rob at center and Grant at the four along with Tatum. I don’t think it’s crazy to think we’ll see that lineup a lot this season. Here’s how that group performed

107 Ortg / 126 Drtg / -18.8 net rating

In other words, it stunk. That’s why you should really be paying attention to not only how these two develop as offensive players, but watch their defense. This is something that still feels like a little bit of an issue for Nesmith when it comes to on ball defense. 

Now, let’s say Ime wants to throw up lineups where Pritchard/Nesmith runs with the starting group. When that happens, their roles change and spot up shooting becomes more important. This is why you should feel excited based on what you’re seeing this summer from these two. With Pritchard, not only has he been lights out this summer, but he shot 46.7% on catch & shoot threes last year. He’s about as automatic as you could want. For Nesmith, he shot 39.8% on catch & shoot threes last year and just like Pritchard is showing great signs of that skillset this summer. This is so important because the one thing this Celts roster needs is consistent shooting. That’s not going to come with Richardson/Dunn/Smart/Schroder/etc. It’s imperative that Pritchard/Nesmith take a leap in that department to the point where you feel comfortably relying on either in that off ball role. 

Here’s where the lineup data gets interesting and shows the potential of how lethal those guys can be when both are playing with the starters. Last season when we saw a Smart/Pritchard/Nesmith/Jaylen/Rob lineup, the numbers were staggering

171 Ortg / 113 Dtrg / +58.8 net rating

Sadly, that sample size is small as shit because it only happened in 3 games, but it gives you an idea of what type of potential is there. 

Now maybe you’re someone that thinks all three of Romeo/Pritchard/Nesmith should only play on the second unit. That’s fine, but just illustrates how important their development is to the success of this team. As we know, the bench last year was a disaster. They were 28th in scoring and 29th in FGA. Basically, none of the bench guys were a threat offensively to the point where you felt bad for Jaylen or Tatum when they played with that unit because defenses could just lock in on them since they didn’t have to worry about anyone else. Having real development from Romeo/Nesmith in this area will do wonders in terms of not needing the Jays to do so much to carry that unit. 

Given what the Celts cap situation looks like moving forward, it’s pretty important that the Celts are able to get real production from these guys while they are still on their rookie deals. That was a big time key to the Isaiah era Celts. Almost everyone outplayed their contract. It’s not a surprise that the teams you see make deep runs for the most part have a few young guys who do just that. When you start having multiple guys on 2nd and 3rd contracts, hitting on draft picks becomes so important. 

That’s why Summer League matters more for the Celts than it may for some other teams. The main guys getting run in Vegas are going to be getting rotation minutes once the season starts. Their development is what could ultimately bump this group into the top 4 conversation, or keep them where they are fighting for their play in lives. So when people say “who cares Summer League doesn’t matter”, they couldn’t be more wrong. It all matters. So the fact that Nesmith/Pritchard are off to a great start is significant when you think at what it could mean moving forward.