The Field of Dreams game is just a few hours away. On paper, the White Sox should beat the ever living SHIT out of the Yankees. The Yankees are beat up, Andrew Heaney a (trashola) lefty is on the mound for them, and the White Sox will have their best lineup of the entire season tonight. Oh, and the potential 2021 AL Cy Young winner will be on the mound for them.
It's baseball though. Weird things happen. The White Sox have already touched Heaney up for 7 earned in 3IP this year and though tonight should be similar, there are no guarantees in baseball. That in and of itself has me NERVOUS for this game. It would shock me none if the White Sox let Heaney dick them around for 5-6 innings, keeping the Yankees in the game or even squeaking out a W.
I will still be legally and responsibly wagering on the game in spite of my fears, however. Let's take a look at it from an unbiased perspective and try our damndest to win some money
***ALL ODDS SUBJECT TO CHANGE***
MONEYLINE: White Sox -200, Yankees +160
I won't be touching the White Sox ML unless I decide to put it in a parlay and for obvious reason. Juice just ain't worth the squeeze. It's a big league game, anything can happen, so I'm not risking the money I heist from Dente just to win half of what I wager. The Yankees on the other hand? +160 is solid value. Sure, they're gutted with COVID issues, injuries, and are starting a complete bum on the mound, but +160 for a team that is one of the hotter teams in the league right now isn't too shabby. I personally won't be doing it, duh, but from an unbiased perspective, that ain't a half bad number I don't think. Not GREAT value, but not awful either.
Over/Under: O9 -118/U9 +100
This is a weird one. I expect there to be some level of nerves for each team knowing that every baseball fan in the country will be tuning into the game. That plays to the pitchers' advantages and if advantages slant to pitchers, the under is the obvious play. Lynn and Heaney's production should cancel each other out to an extent.
But I also expect hitters to rise to the occasion. Aside from their 3 game playoff stint last year against the A's in the Corona season, the White Sox have been looking to announce their presence to the country on a national platform for a WHILE now. It will be the best lineup the White Sox have trotted out to date and it wouldn't shock me if someone like Eloy on the Sox went off for 5 ribbies today.
Gun to head? I think it's something like a 5-2 final score. I don't love the O/U enough to play it, but I do think the under would be the play and at +100, it's not too awful. A quick look at Vegas Insider shows that a TON of the public's early money is on the over, so I do think the under is the play should you choose to play the game total.
Team Total: White Sox O4.5 -132/U4.5 +117 and Yankees O3.5 -132/U3.5 +114
I really like the White Sox TT over 4.5 at -137 today. I think they score 5-6-7 runs or so, Lynn shuts down the Yankees B lineup and Kopech, Kimbrel and Hendriks come out GUNS BLAZING after Lynn is done to slam the door in emphatic fashion. I have no source or anything about this, but I am guessing the White Sox are going to use tonight to show off the best of their best to the nation tonight. That's why they pushed Lynn's start to tonight instead of him starting against the Twins yesterday.
The White Sox destroy LHP; that's no secret at all. They will put up runs tonight
Over 4.5 at -137 is the play. I expect it to move to -150 or higher before first pitch. Get it at this number before it moves.
1st to score: Yankees -120, White Sox +100 - favorite play of the day
White Sox might pull another mammoth 1st inning out of their ass tonight like they did against the Cubs last week after Lynn goes 3 up, 3 down in the top 1/2 of the 1st. Heaney really sucks that badly and the White Sox have pounced on pitchers in the first inning a LOT in 2021.
Lynn is a DOG. I expect the White Sox to be winning after 1IP. I truly, sincerely, from the bottom of my heart think so.
Players To Hit A HR And To Win Game: Our Mash the Lefty Bet is up about +15 units on the year!!!
I am somewhat cold though; the White Sox have still teed off on most LHPs they've faced recently, but I've been picking the wrong guys to go yard. I nailed the Engel bet a few weeks back, and tonight we're looking to get hot again. With Eloy, Lu, Abreu, Engel, TA7, etc. in the lineup you know you can TYPICALLY count on at least one of them to go yard off a lefty. I boil it down to the hitters above and basically guessing at which hitter(s) will go liftoff. The White Sox are something crazy like 30-7 when hitting 2 or or more bombs in a game, so if 2 guys hit dingers against any given LH starter, you know the odds are that they'll win. Pair that with a 20% chance (give or take) at picking the correct guy to go yard, those +700 or higher odds are juicy as fuck.
Tonight we're riding with Pito. He's been…. fine this year. Not great like 2020, not bad like 2019. He's been fine. But I expect him to be the best version of himself tonight under the bright lights, against the Yankees, and with the whole country watching.
Here are the odds for the rest of the White Sox tonight parlayed with a Sox victory:
Vaughn +525 (+360 without a win)
Anderson +540 (+370 without a win)
Robert +600 (+410 without a win)
Eloy +450 (+300 without a win)
Lu is due, I will be betting him to leave the park tonight. If you don't like Abreu vs. Heaney tonight (bold strategy), one of the guys above will most likely go yard though, so a 25% chance at hitting a +450 or larger bet is appealing to me even if the math says it's even or otherwise. That's just how my dumb brain works.
This blog was obviously written from a White Sox fan's perspective on how I think they'll perform tonight. I am not an expert and you should only gamble legally, for entertainment purposes only, and responsibly. Don't tail me if you can't do any of that. If you can, I will be backing myself on every pick above today.
Here's a montage of some IG smoke to cleanse your pallet. Don't even bring the stopwatch.